https://steezanomics.com/learn/ Player prop research: guides on props, fair odds and vig, plus research and stories built from a ledger where every bet is published, losses included. en-ca Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-nfl-player-prop-lines-move-during-the-week/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-nfl-player-prop-lines-move-during-the-week/ Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research We read one NFL week at noon every day. Of the yardage lines up by Wednesday, about 4 in 5 sat on a different number by Sunday. Most props were not up yet. https://steezanomics.com/learn/can-you-trust-nfl-prop-hit-rates-early-in-the-season/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/can-you-trust-nfl-prop-hit-rates-early-in-the-season/ Wed, 30 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide On our NFL week 3 board, 91% of prop lines had an L5 reaching into last season. On 35, the L5 and this season disagreed by 50 points or more. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-strikeout-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-strikeout-prop-odds/ Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Eight MLB slates, 13 books, 525 strikeout sides. Two exchanges topped it: NoVig on 47% of its sides. Among sportsbooks, DraftKings 6.2%, FanDuel 3.8%. https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-alt-lines-worse-odds-than-the-main-line/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-alt-lines-worse-odds-than-the-main-line/ Mon, 28 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research 1,194 bets bet365 posted twice, both prices updated within 5 minutes. Usually one price. In baseball the ladder paid less 165 times, more 91. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-are-alt-lines-in-player-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-are-alt-lines-in-player-props/ Sun, 27 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide An alt line is the same prop at a different number and price. On 186 NFL receiving yards ladders, a rung up to 10 yards above the line paid a median +120. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-anytime-touchdown-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-anytime-touchdown-odds/ Sat, 26 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research 14 books priced anytime TDs on 415 NFL week 3 players. No book was best on more than about a quarter. Caesars: 3 of 398. Short prices: a $30 per $100 gap. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-tools-for-home-run-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-tools-for-home-run-props/ Fri, 25 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Free prop tools on a live MLB slate, counted for home runs. Only one shows the park and the wind, which is the thing a home run actually turns on. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-nfl-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-nfl-player-prop-tools/ Thu, 24 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Prop tools opened logged out on a live NFL week 1 board. BettingPros showed 655 props in 11 markets. Football's biggest prop market was the thinnest one. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-sportsbooks-limit-winning-bettors/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-sportsbooks-limit-winning-bettors/ Wed, 23 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Story Yes, but the usual reason is not winning. Promo abuse and arbitrage get you limited fastest. Across 15+ accounts over years we were hard limited twice. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-mlb-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-mlb-player-prop-tools/ Tue, 22 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Twelve prop tools opened logged out on one MLB slate. Five gave real research free. Only two show what baseball props turn on: park, weather, pitcher. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-paid-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-paid-player-prop-tools/ Mon, 21 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Every pricing page opened on one day: $14.99 to $199 a month, thirteen times apart, for the same job. What each tier unlocks and what you get for nothing. https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-alternatives-to-props-cash/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-alternatives-to-props-cash/ Sun, 20 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Props.Cash asks about $200 a year and shows a logged-out visitor nothing. We opened twelve prop tools with no account. Five gave real research free. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-a-player-prop/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-a-player-prop/ Sat, 19 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Five steps in the order our board runs them each morning. Start with the price, not the player, and never take a price from the book that built your fair. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-stats-do-player-prop-tools-use/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-stats-do-player-prop-tools-use/ Fri, 18 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Our form score is 60% recent and 40% season with a 20 game minimum. Why that split, why the minimum bites harder on pitchers, and the short-window trap. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-sportsbooks-have-different-player-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-sportsbooks-have-different-player-prop-odds/ Thu, 17 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research DraftKings beat FanDuel on 69.2% of 1,350 shared props one night. Against bet365 on 3,054 it was a wash. Whether line shopping pays depends on the books. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-best-player-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-best-player-prop-odds/ Wed, 16 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Best prices counted across 19 books on 6,376 priced sides from one night. No single winner: DraftKings had 93% of passing yards props and zero home runs. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-home-run-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-home-run-odds/ Tue, 15 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research The best price on every home run prop across 19 books. NoVig had it on 56% of its rows. DraftKings, king of passing yards, had it on none of 147. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-does-a-player-prop-cost-you/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-does-a-player-prop-cost-you/ Mon, 14 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Everyone says props carry more vig than sides. Nobody publishes the number. We took 6,213 player lines where one book quoted both sides and measured it. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-check-for-anytime-touchdown-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-check-for-anytime-touchdown-props/ Sun, 13 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Five things in order, each a number you can look up. Including the one that surprises people: defences differ threefold in touchdowns allowed by position. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-your-player-props-keep-losing/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-your-player-props-keep-losing/ Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Winning half your props is not breaking even. On one night of our board, books held 5.4% to 11.4% on player props. What that does to a 50% record. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-rbi-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-rbi-props/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide An RBI needs a runner on base first. Why opportunity beats contact quality, what lineup spot really does, and the settlement rules people get wrong. https://steezanomics.com/learn/does-mlb-batter-starting-matter/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/does-mlb-batter-starting-matter/ Wed, 09 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research A starting batter averages 4.12 plate appearances. One off the bench averages 1.14. What that does to a hit rate, and how far a blended last-ten is off. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-stolen-base-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-stolen-base-props/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A stolen base needs four things before speed matters: reach base, be allowed to run, face a pitcher who lets him, and pick the moment. The research path. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-walk-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-walk-props/ Mon, 07 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Walk props come down to two people disagreeing about the strike zone: the hitter's discipline, the pitcher's command, and the umpire nobody checks. https://steezanomics.com/learn/batter-vs-pitcher-history-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/batter-vs-pitcher-history-props/ Sun, 06 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide He is 3 for 7 lifetime against tonight's starter. Why seven at-bats over three seasons cannot carry that weight, and what to look at instead. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-l5-l10-prop-trends-matter/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-l5-l10-prop-trends-matter/ Sat, 05 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Every prop app leads with 8 of his last 10. What a hot streak tells you, what it cannot, and why the number is on the screen in the first place. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-home-run-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-home-run-props/ Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A home run needs the ball hit hard, in the air, at the right angle, enough times. What barrel rate, exit velocity and fly-ball rate each tell you. https://steezanomics.com/learn/pitcher-outs-recorded-explained/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/pitcher-outs-recorded-explained/ Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide 17.5 outs means the over needs 18, exactly six complete innings. The conversion for every common line, what happens when he is pulled, and the void rules. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-total-bases-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-total-bases-props/ Wed, 02 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Total bases asks how far a hitter got, not whether he got there. The numbers that matter, from isolated power to plate appearances, in the order to check. https://steezanomics.com/learn/hits-vs-total-bases/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/hits-vs-total-bases/ Tue, 01 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide At the 0.5 line they are the same bet and settle together. At 1.5 they disagree one time in seven. Where the markets split and which hitter suits which. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-h-r-rbi-in-baseball-betting/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-h-r-rbi-in-baseball-betting/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide H+R+RBI adds a hitter's hits, runs scored and runs batted in into one number. Over 1.5 needs any two. A solo home run gets you three at once. What counts. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-counts-as-total-bases/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-counts-as-total-bases/ Sun, 30 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Singles count 1, doubles 2, triples 3, home runs 4. Walks, hit by pitch, steals and errors count zero. Every case that catches people out, with examples. https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-player-prop-tools/ Sat, 29 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup We opened twelve prop tools logged out, on the same MLB slate, and recorded what rendered. Five gave real research for free. One showed nothing at all. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-strikeout-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-strikeout-props/ Fri, 28 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research We pre-registered 17 claims about what a lineup does to a starter and tested them on 3,362 real starts. One survived. Then we checked it against the line. https://steezanomics.com/learn/overs-vs-unders-player-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/overs-vs-unders-player-props/ Thu, 27 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Unders hit 55.6% and overs 46.0% across 1,776 tracked MLB prop leans. The gap looks decisive until you check what each side needed to break even. https://steezanomics.com/learn/profit-boost-parlay-vs-straight/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/profit-boost-parlay-vs-straight/ Sat, 01 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Same 30% boost, three tickets: a -110 single earns +9.1% EV, a 2-leg parlay +11.0%, a +280 alt line +16.0%. Where a profit boost earns most and why. https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-no-sweat-bets-worth-it/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-no-sweat-bets-worth-it/ Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A no-sweat bet refunds a losing stake as a bonus bet, not cash. The EV formula, what a $100 no-sweat is worth at each price, and why the math favors dogs. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-many-legs-should-a-parlay-have/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-many-legs-should-a-parlay-have/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Every -110 leg compounds about 4.5% of house edge: 2 legs costs about 9% of fair value, 5+ pays over 20% for lottery odds. The math by leg count. https://steezanomics.com/learn/bonus-bet-vs-profit-boost/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/bonus-bet-vs-profit-boost/ Wed, 29 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A $100 bonus bet is worth $48 to $80 depending on the odds you play it at. The conversion table, the boost comparison, and which offer is worth more. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-use-a-profit-boost-on/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-use-a-profit-boost-on/ Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide On a $25 cap, a 50% boost is worth $4.17 on a -200 favorite and $10.00 on a +400 dog. The decision table, why longshots fight the math, and the answer. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-pick-a-betting-discord/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-pick-a-betting-discord/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Most betting Discords sell confidence, not math. A five-point checklist: public ledgers, settled results, honest language, real pricing, and the free tier. https://steezanomics.com/learn/bankroll-and-unit-sizing/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/bankroll-and-unit-sizing/ Sun, 26 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Why 1-2% flat stakes beat gut sizing, the losing-streak math nobody runs, and how the desk sizes its own plays with a hard cap. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-can-you-make-sports-betting/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-can-you-make-sports-betting/ Sat, 25 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Story Real numbers from 5,000+ logged bets: what +EV betting pays at realistic stakes, why the ceiling is lower than claimed, and the two walls bettors hit. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-devig-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-devig-odds/ Fri, 24 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Devigging strips the book's fee out of a line to reveal the market's true probability. The two-step method with a worked example, and where it breaks. https://steezanomics.com/learn/parlay-payouts-explained/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/parlay-payouts-explained/ Thu, 23 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Parlay payouts for 2 through 8 legs, the math behind them, how much of your payout disappears at each leg, and the one case where a parlay is smart. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-ev-betting-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-ev-betting-tools/ Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Six +EV betting tools compared honestly, July 2026, free and paid, plus the math on when a subscription fee is itself a losing bet. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-spot-fake-betting-accounts/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-spot-fake-betting-accounts/ Tue, 14 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Five tells that expose fake betting accounts and pick-sellers, from no tracked record to a feed with no red days, and the question that makes them vanish. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-closing-line-value/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-closing-line-value/ Mon, 13 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Closing line value is the gap between your odds and the close, in implied probability. Profit lies for months. CLV does not. Formula, example, self-check. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-calculate-profit-boost-ev/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-calculate-profit-boost-ev/ Sun, 12 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Four steps to price any profit boost: fair price, apply the boost, convert to probability, compare. Two worked examples and the trap most bettors miss. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-ev-betting/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-ev-betting/ Sat, 11 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide +EV betting means betting only when the price beats the true probability. The coin-flip math, where the edges come from, and whether it is still gambling. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-free-ev-betting-calculators/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-free-ev-betting-calculators/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Six free calculators for devigging odds, pricing boosts and checking parlays, ranked honestly, including where each one beats our own. https://steezanomics.com/learn/two-weeks-of-public-boost-data/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/two-weeks-of-public-boost-data/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research A dated snapshot of the public desk, June 24 to July 6: 179 graded plays, a 29.9% hit rate against a 25.2% breakeven, +27.1% ROI, every slip type green. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-minus-110-is-not-50-50/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-minus-110-is-not-50-50/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Both sides sit at -110, but you need to win 52.4% just to break even. That gap is the vig, and it is why most bettors slowly bleed without feeling it. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-we-post-every-loss/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-we-post-every-loss/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Story Most picks services delete bad days and restart under new names. The Steezanomics desk grades itself every morning and publishes the red days too. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-you-keep-losing-parlays/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-you-keep-losing-parlays/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Parlays multiply every leg's odds and the vig with them. Two -110 legs cost about 9% in hidden margin, four about 17%. The math, and when one is worth it. https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-profit-boosts-worth-it/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-profit-boosts-worth-it/ Sun, 05 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Sometimes. A profit boost is +EV only when the boosted payout beats the true no-vig odds. The exact math, the super boost trap, and the 5-second test.