Max Fried

NYYNew York Yankees @ San Diego Padres9:41 PMPetco Park

Runs

The MatchupMax Fried: Runs by split

	G	PA	R	R/G	OBP	over 1.5
on the road ●	9	—	—	—	—	0% (0/9)
at home	7	—	—	—	—	0% (0/7)
season	16	—	—	—	—	0% (0/16)

● tonight's split

The BatMax Fried: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split

	PA	R/PA	BBE	xBA	LD%	SS%	EV
vs RHP	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
vs LHP	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
on the road ●	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
at home	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
season	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

1.5line

OVER+112Pinnaclemarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)

30% boost+146no market fair50% boost+168no market fair

UNDER-149Pinnaclemarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)

30% boost-115no market fair50% boost+101no market fair

Strikeouts

16 games logged

line4.5

The Opposing LineupSan Diego Padres vs Max Frieda strikeout line is a bet on the lineup as much as the arm · season to date

strikeout rate21.8%22.2%

48th percentile for strikeouts (16 of 30)league avg 22.1%5217 PAvs LHP · 41st pct · 18 of 30season 21.8% (48th)1340 PAneutralneutral

walk rate9.3%8.4%

72nd percentile for walks drawn (9 of 30)league avg 8.9%5217 PAvs LHP · 31st pct · 21 of 30season 9.3% (72nd)1340 PAsupports UNDERsupports OVER

team AVG.237.241

28th percentile for batting average (22 of 30)league avg .2445217 PAvs LHP · 48th pct · 16 of 30season .237 (28th)1340 PAsupports OVERneutral

San Diego Padres slash.237 / .315 / .387.702 OPS · 5217 PA

Fried's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	84	22.6%	7.1%	7.23	3.17	.156
vs RHB	263	24.3%	8.4%	8.77	2.91	.212
home	146	24%	10.3%	8.44	2.33	.198
away ●	201	23.9%	6.5%	8.20	3.69	.198

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that fans 3 points above league average is worth more to a strikeout line than any recent-form streak.

Against This ClubMax Fried vs San Diego Padres6 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 4.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 4.5
May 7 '25	7.0	21	8	5	1	0	1	over
May 17 '24	4.1	13	2	9	3	3	0	under
Apr 17 '23	5.0	15	4	4	0	0	0	under
May 13 '22	6.0	18	6	9	4	2	1	over
Sep 24 '21	9.0	27	4	3	0	0	0	under
May 1 '19	7.0	21	7	4	1	0	1	over

6 career games against them · they have hit .230/.253/.311 off him · 154 plate appearances · 3 of 6 went over 4.5

Max Fried Breakdown · his own data

K%23.9%—

no split for this stat

61st percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%347 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only

whiff%24.6%—

no split for this stat

49th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%347 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

K/98.3—

no split for this stat

league avg 8.5-0.2 vs league16 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

first-pitch strike%55.6%—

no split for this stat

5th percentile for first-pitch strikesleague avg 61.9%347 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

The MatchupMax Fried: Strikeouts by split

	G	IP	K	K/G	H	over 4.5
on the road ●	9	52.2	48	5.33	36	67% (6/9)
at home	7	37.1	35	5.00	26	43% (3/7)
season	16	90.0	83	5.19	62	56% (9/16)

● tonight's split

4.5line

OVER+138ProphetXfair +138 · 0% vs fair

30% boost+179+17.3% vs market · +57.2% vs season50% boost+207+28.9% vs market · +72.7% vs season

UNDER-141NoVigfair -135 · -1.7% vs fair

30% boost-108+10.5% vs market · -15.9% vs season50% boost+106+18.7% vs market · -9.7% vs season

Outs

16 games logged

line12.5

The Opposing LineupSan Diego Padres vs Max Friedan outs line is a bet on how long this lineup lets him work · season to date

team OBP.315.309

45th percentile for on-base (17 of 30)league avg .3195217 PAvs LHP · 24th pct · 23 of 30season .315 (45th)1340 PAneutralsupports OVER

strikeout rate21.8%22.2%

48th percentile for strikeouts (16 of 30)league avg 22.1%5217 PAvs LHP · 41st pct · 18 of 30season 21.8% (48th)1340 PAneutralneutral

runs per game4.24—

no split for this stat

24th percentile for runs scored (23 of 30)league avg 4.48140 gamesno vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports OVERseason only

San Diego Padres slash.237 / .315 / .387.702 OPS · 5217 PA

Fried's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	84	22.6%	7.1%	7.23	3.17	.156
vs RHB	263	24.3%	8.4%	8.77	2.91	.212
home	146	24%	10.3%	8.44	2.33	.198
away ●	201	23.9%	6.5%	8.20	3.69	.198

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. Walks and crooked numbers end outings early; quick outs extend them.

Against This ClubMax Fried vs San Diego Padres6 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 12.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 12.5
May 7 '25	7.0	21	8	5	1	0	1	over
May 17 '24	4.1	13	2	9	3	3	0	over
Apr 17 '23	5.0	15	4	4	0	0	0	over
May 13 '22	6.0	18	6	9	4	2	1	over
Sep 24 '21	9.0	27	4	3	0	0	0	over
May 1 '19	7.0	21	7	4	1	0	1	over

6 career games against them · they have hit .230/.253/.311 off him · 154 plate appearances · 6 of 6 went over 12.5

Max Fried Breakdown · his own data

IP per start5.6—

no comparison availableno split for this stat

16 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.00—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.30-0.30 vs league16 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

xERA2.50—

no split for this stat

3rd percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16347 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only

The MatchupMax Fried: Outs by split

	G	outs	IP	outs/G	ER	over 12.5
on the road ●	9	158	52.2	17.56	15	78% (7/9)
at home	7	112	37.1	16.00	13	86% (6/7)
season	16	270	90.0	16.88	28	81% (13/16)

● tonight's split

12.5line

C+★ FORMleans over

the over has hit 74% blended (L10 70%, season 81%) against a 51% priced probability
his xERA of 2.50 - 3rd percentile for expected ERA
recent form and season agree (70% vs 81%) - the read does not depend on a streak

no L20 window - the sample is too short to show one

basis: 16 starts this season

OVER-111NoVigfair -105 · -2.5% vs fair

30% boost+117+11.4% vs market · +76.4% vs season50% boost+135+20.6% vs market · +91% vs season

UNDER+104NoVigfair +105 · -0.6% vs fair

30% boost+135+14.5% vs market · -55.9% vs season50% boost+156+24.7% vs market · -52% vs season

Hits Allowed

16 games logged

line3.5

The Opposing LineupSan Diego Padres vs Max Frieda hits-allowed line is a bet on how much contact this lineup makes · season to date

team AVG.237.241

28th percentile for batting average (22 of 30)league avg .2445217 PAvs LHP · 48th pct · 16 of 30season .237 (28th)1340 PAsupports UNDERneutral

team OBP.315.309

45th percentile for on-base (17 of 30)league avg .3195217 PAvs LHP · 24th pct · 23 of 30season .315 (45th)1340 PAneutralsupports UNDER

strikeout rate21.8%22.2%

48th percentile for strikeouts (16 of 30)league avg 22.1%5217 PAvs LHP · 41st pct · 18 of 30season 21.8% (48th)1340 PAneutralneutral

team SLG.387.382

17th percentile for slugging (25 of 30)league avg .4005217 PAvs LHP · 38th pct · 19 of 30season .387 (17th)1340 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

San Diego Padres slash.237 / .315 / .387.702 OPS · 5217 PA

Fried's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	84	22.6%	7.1%	7.23	3.17	.156
vs RHB	263	24.3%	8.4%	8.77	2.91	.212
home	146	24%	10.3%	8.44	2.33	.198
away ●	201	23.9%	6.5%	8.20	3.69	.198

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that rarely fans puts more balls in play, and balls in play become hits.

Against This ClubMax Fried vs San Diego Padres6 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 3.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 3.5
May 7 '25	7.0	21	8	5	1	0	1	over
May 17 '24	4.1	13	2	9	3	3	0	over
Apr 17 '23	5.0	15	4	4	0	0	0	over
May 13 '22	6.0	18	6	9	4	2	1	over
Sep 24 '21	9.0	27	4	3	0	0	0	under
May 1 '19	7.0	21	7	4	1	0	1	over

6 career games against them · they have hit .230/.253/.311 off him · 154 plate appearances · 5 of 6 went over 3.5

Max Fried Breakdown · his own data

xBA against.198—

no split for this stat

9th percentileleague avg .239347 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

AVG against.198—

no split for this stat

league avg .244-0.046 vs league16 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.00—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.30-0.30 vs league16 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

whiff%24.6%—

no split for this stat

49th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%347 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

The MatchupMax Fried: Hits Allowed by split

	G	IP	H	H/G	K	over 3.5
on the road ●	9	52.2	36	4.00	48	56% (5/9)
at home	7	37.1	26	3.71	35	43% (3/7)
season	16	90.0	62	3.88	83	50% (8/16)

● tonight's split

3.5line

OVER+110ProphetXfair +121 · -5.2% vs fair

30% boost+143+9.6% vs market · +21.5% vs season50% boost+165+19.5% vs market · +32.5% vs season

UNDER-115BetMGMfair -120 · +1.9% vs fair

30% boost+113+16.1% vs market · +6.5% vs season50% boost+130+25.6% vs market · +15.2% vs season

Earned Runs

16 games logged

line1.5

The Opposing LineupSan Diego Padres vs Max Friedan ER line is a bet on the damage this lineup does · season to date

runs per game4.24—

no split for this stat

24th percentile for runs scored (23 of 30)league avg 4.48140 gamesno vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports UNDERseason only

team OBP.315.309

45th percentile for on-base (17 of 30)league avg .3195217 PAvs LHP · 24th pct · 23 of 30season .315 (45th)1340 PAneutralsupports UNDER

HR rate2.9%2.5%

34th percentile for home runs (20 of 30)league avg 3.0%5217 PAvs LHP · 34th pct · 20 of 30season 2.9% (34th)1340 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

team SLG.387.382

17th percentile for slugging (25 of 30)league avg .4005217 PAvs LHP · 38th pct · 19 of 30season .387 (17th)1340 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

San Diego Padres slash.237 / .315 / .387.702 OPS · 5217 PA

Fried's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	84	22.6%	7.1%	7.23	3.17	.156
vs RHB	263	24.3%	8.4%	8.77	2.91	.212
home	146	24%	10.3%	8.44	2.33	.198
away ●	201	23.9%	6.5%	8.20	3.69	.198

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. How a lineup scores - and how often it leaves the yard - is most of an earned-run line.

Against This ClubMax Fried vs San Diego Padres6 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 1.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 1.5
May 7 '25	7.0	21	8	5	1	0	1	under
May 17 '24	4.1	13	2	9	3	3	0	over
Apr 17 '23	5.0	15	4	4	0	0	0	under
May 13 '22	6.0	18	6	9	4	2	1	over
Sep 24 '21	9.0	27	4	3	0	0	0	under
May 1 '19	7.0	21	7	4	1	0	1	under

6 career games against them · they have hit .230/.253/.311 off him · 154 plate appearances · 2 of 6 went over 1.5

Max Fried Breakdown · his own data

xERA2.50—

no split for this stat

3rd percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16347 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

ERA2.80—

no split for this stat

15th percentileleague avg 4.1716 startsno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

HR/90.30—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.16-0.86 vs league16 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.00—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.30-0.30 vs league16 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

The MatchupMax Fried: Earned Runs by split

	G	IP	ER	ERA	H	over 1.5
on the road ●	9	52.2	15	2.56	36	44% (4/9)
at home	7	37.1	13	3.13	26	43% (3/7)
season	16	90.0	28	2.80	62	44% (7/16)

● tonight's split

1.5line

OVER+120BetMGMfair +132 · -5.1% vs fair

30% boost+156+10.6% vs market · +12% vs season50% boost+180+21% vs market · +22.5% vs season

UNDER-130NoVigfair -133 · +1% vs fair

30% boost+100+14.2% vs market · +12.5% vs season50% boost+115+23% vs market · +21.2% vs season

Opposing hitters on the prop boardNew York Yankees @ San Diego Padressorted by the focused market, not batting order

odds snapshot · feeds refreshed 1:00 PM ET · not live pricing