Friday, September 4

The Card

5 plays out of 405 lines on today's board. Each one shows the price, what the market says it is really worth, and the history behind it, so you can disagree with any of them before you bet.

Posted before the games and graded afterwards, win or lose. Every play we have ever posted.

Daniel Lynch IVUnder 12.5 OutsToronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals

+132ProphetX

ProphetX+132NoVig+125Caesars+107theScore Bet+100Bovada+100Hard Rock+100FanDuel-102DraftKings-104BetMGM-105Fliff-11010 books · +132 to -110

season98%51 games

last 1090%

market fair+11845.9% no-vig

form vs price+47.3points

with 50% boost+198

Daniel Lynch IV has gone under 12.5 outs in 98% of his 51 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.

Mickey MoniakUnder 1.5 Total BasesSt. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

-105Bovada

Bovada-105ProphetX-105NoVig-106BetOnline-108Caesars-109Pinnacle-109theScore Bet-110BetMGM-110DraftKings-110Hard Rock-110betPARX-113Fliff-12512 books · -105 to -125

season69%100 games

last 1090%

market fair+10449.1% no-vig

form vs price+32.5points

with 50% boost+143

Mickey Moniak has gone under 1.5 total bases in 69% of his 100 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.

He faces Andre Pallante.

Rafael DeversOver 1.5 H+R+RBISan Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

+105Bovada

Bovada+105NoVig+104ProphetX+104theScore Bet+100DraftKings-103Caesars-105Hard Rock-105BetMGM-105bet365-105Fliff-12010 books · +105 to -120

season55%141 games

last 1090%

market fair+11546.6% no-vig

form vs price+29.4points

with 50% boost+157

Rafael Devers has gone over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 55% of his 141 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.

He faces Nolan McLean.

Devers also has his hard-hit rate in the 95th percentile of qualified regulars.

Against it: his last 10 (90%) is far off his season rate (55%), so this leans on a streak holding.

Andre PallanteOver 11.5 OutsSt. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

-139Bally Bet

Bally Bet-139betPARX-139bet365-165FanDuel-172Caesars-173DraftKings-174ProphetX-174NoVig-178Bovada-180theScore Bet-19010 books · -139 to -190

season96%24 games

last 10100%

market fair-15661% no-vig

form vs price+37.4points

with 50% boost+108

Andre Pallante has gone over 11.5 outs in 96% of his 24 games this season, and in 10 of his last 10.

Konnor GriffinOver 0.5 Stolen BasesLos Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+450bet365

bet365+450BetMGM+425ProphetX+380DraftKings+378NoVig+376FanDuel+3606 books · +450 to +360

season31%58 games

last 1060%

market fair+41719.4% no-vig

form vs price+29points

with 50% boost+675

Konnor Griffin has gone over 0.5 stolen bases in 31% of his 58 games this season, and in 6 of his last 10.

He faces Ryan Johnson.

Against it: his last 10 (60%) is far off his season rate (31%), so this leans on a streak holding.

What has to be true before a play gets posted

A real history behind it. At least 20 games logged, so a hot week cannot masquerade as a trend.
A price the market agrees is a price. At least 2 no-vig exchanges quoting it, or it does not appear here at all.
Something you can actually bet. Between -250 and +700, because a 40-to-1 shot with a great number on it is still a 40-to-1 shot.
Spread out. one line per player, max two per game, so one bad night for one team cannot take the whole card down with it.

Prices are the ones on the board when the card was posted. They move. Check yours before you bet.

Trend leans

Every line on the slate where recent form runs furthest from the price, graded. These are not picks and they are not part of the card's published record. A lean, not a probability.

True of every pick on this card

These are historical-rate reads. No park, weather, or lineup-spot adjustment is applied yet.
Retail prices carry roughly 7% vig on props, so almost every line here prices worse than the market's fair number. Shopping the price across books is what narrows it.
This card is forward-tested in public and every settled result is on the results page. The sample is still early, so treat it as research rather than a signal.

Written up

built Sep 4, 10:02 AM · selection and wording are generated from the data, not written by hand