MLB PLAYER PROPS · Friday, September 4, 2026

Today's MLB player prop picks, and the case against each one.

5 plays out of 405 prop lines that cleared the filters. Every one shows the price we saw and where, the form it rests on, and the reason it might be wrong. Posted before first pitch and graded afterwards, win or lose.

THE RECORD, NOT A PITCH

The current card is 55-57-8 since Aug 9, running -2.7% ROI at a flat stake. That is the honest number as of this morning, and it is the same number whichever way the week goes. Every pick we have ever posted is here, losers included.

Pick 1

Daniel Lynch IV Under 12.5 Outs

Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals · first pitch 8:10 PM ET

+132at ProphetXprice seen Sep 4, 10:02 AM ET

Daniel Lynch IV has gone under 12.5 outs in 98% of his 51 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.

The case against

For reference, the books quoting this line imply a fair price around +118 against the +132 shown. That is a market comparison, not our own probability, so treat it as context rather than a verdict.

Best 6 of 10 books quoting it at posting

ProphetX+132NoVig+125Caesars+107theScore Bet+100Bovada+100Hard Rock+100

See the full game log and every book on Daniel Lynch IV

Pick 2

Mickey Moniak Under 1.5 Total Bases

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies · first pitch 8:41 PM ET · facing Andre Pallante

-105at Bovadaprice seen Sep 4, 10:02 AM ET

Mickey Moniak has gone under 1.5 total bases in 69% of his 100 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.
He faces Andre Pallante.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +104 and this is -105, giving up roughly 4.1%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap before the bet pays.

Best 6 of 12 books quoting it at posting

Bovada-105ProphetX-105NoVig-106BetOnline-108Caesars-109Pinnacle-109

See the full game log and every book on Mickey Moniak

Pick 3

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 H+R+RBI

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets · first pitch 7:11 PM ET · facing Nolan McLean

+105at Bovadaprice seen Sep 4, 10:02 AM ET

Rafael Devers has gone over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 55% of his 141 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.
He faces Nolan McLean.
Devers also has his hard-hit rate in the 95th percentile of qualified regulars.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +115 and this is +105, giving up roughly 4.5%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap before the bet pays.

His last 10 (90%) is far off his season rate (55%), so this leans on a streak holding.

Best 6 of 10 books quoting it at posting

Bovada+105NoVig+104ProphetX+104theScore Bet+100DraftKings-103Caesars-105

See the full game log and every book on Rafael Devers

Pick 4

Andre Pallante Over 11.5 Outs

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies · first pitch 8:41 PM ET

-139at betPARXprice seen Sep 4, 10:02 AM ET

Andre Pallante has gone over 11.5 outs in 96% of his 24 games this season, and in 10 of his last 10.

The case against

For reference, the books quoting this line imply a fair price around -156 against the -139 shown. That is a market comparison, not our own probability, so treat it as context rather than a verdict.

Best 6 of 10 books quoting it at posting

Bally Bet-139betPARX-139bet365-165FanDuel-172Caesars-173DraftKings-174

See the full game log and every book on Andre Pallante

Pick 5

Konnor Griffin Over 0.5 Stolen Bases

Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates · first pitch 6:46 PM ET · facing Ryan Johnson

+450at bet365price seen Sep 4, 10:02 AM ET

Konnor Griffin has gone over 0.5 stolen bases in 31% of his 58 games this season, and in 6 of his last 10.
He faces Ryan Johnson.

The case against

For reference, the books quoting this line imply a fair price around +417 against the +450 shown. That is a market comparison, not our own probability, so treat it as context rather than a verdict.

His last 10 (60%) is far off his season rate (31%), so this leans on a streak holding.

Every book quoting it at posting, best price first

bet365+450BetMGM+425ProphetX+380DraftKings+378NoVig+376FanDuel+360

See the full game log and every book on Konnor Griffin

Game by game

Two closer looks: one matchup broken down, and one market ranked across the whole slate. Both are separate from the card above.

Angels vs Pirates2 form angles · Ryan Johnson vs Jared Jones Best home run props today3 form angles · MLB · across the whole slate

How these are picked

Every prop on the slate gets a fair value built from the books quoting it, with the vig stripped out and the book being judged left out of its own fair. The card then ranks on recent form against that price: how often the player has cleared this line, over what sample, and how far that sits from what the market is charging.

What that means, said plainly: these are form picks, not value picks. Two of today's five price worse than the market's own fair number, because retail props carry roughly 7% vig. If you want the line where the number itself is cheap, that is a different question and the board shows it on every prop.

Filters: at least 20 games of history, at least two sharp quotes on the line, prices between -250 and +700, one line per player and no more than two per game.

Open tonight's full board The record Every page we have published

What this page is not

It is not a guarantee and it is not advice. Individual props lose constantly; that is what a 50-something percent hit rate means. The claim here is narrow and checkable: the picks are posted before the games, the price is the one the Lab recorded when it built the card, and the result is published either way.

Updated Sep 4, 10:02 AM ET. This page lives at one address and is rewritten for each day's slate.

Built from the Lab's snapshot for Friday, September 4, 2026, locked at Sep 4, 10:02 AM ET. Prices were re-checked across the books at that moment. The sentences under each pick are generated from the same numbers printed beside them, not written fresh each day, so they say what the data says and nothing more. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.