Daniel Lynch IV

Runs

The MatchupDaniel Lynch IV: Runs by split

	G	PA	R	R/G	OBP	over 2.5
at home ●	27	—	—	—	—	0% (0/27)
on the road	24	—	—	—	—	0% (0/24)
season	51	—	—	—	—	0% (0/51)

● tonight's split

The BatDaniel Lynch IV: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split

	PA	R/PA	BBE	xBA	LD%	SS%	EV
vs RHP	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
vs LHP	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
at home ●	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
on the road	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
season	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2.5line

OVER+132Pinnaclemarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)

30% boost+172no market fair50% boost+198no market fair

UNDER-177Pinnaclemarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)

30% boost-136no market fair50% boost-118no market fair

Strikeouts

51 games logged

line2.5

The Opposing LineupToronto Blue Jays vs Daniel Lynch IVa strikeout line is a bet on the lineup as much as the arm · season to date

strikeout rate19.4%20.6%

3rd percentile for strikeouts (29 of 30)league avg 22.1%5264 PAvs LHP · 14th pct · 26 of 30season 19.4% (3rd)1543 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

walk rate7.5%8.1%

3rd percentile for walks drawn (29 of 30)league avg 8.9%5264 PAvs LHP · 24th pct · 23 of 30season 7.5% (3rd)1543 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER

team AVG.246.227

55th percentile for batting average (14 of 30)league avg .2445264 PAvs LHP · 3rd pct · 29 of 30season .246 (55th)1543 PAneutralsupports OVER

Toronto Blue Jays slash.246 / .308 / .381.689 OPS · 5264 PA

IV's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	103	20.4%	3.9%	7.18	5.25	.175
vs RHB	147	17%	10.2%	6.37	1.67	.221
home ●	137	16.8%	8.8%	5.97	1.92	.172
away	113	20.4%	6.2%	7.67	3.29	.236

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that fans 3 points above league average is worth more to a strikeout line than any recent-form streak.

Against This ClubDaniel Lynch IV vs Toronto Blue Jays4 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 2.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 2.5
Aug 3 '25rel	1.0	3	1	0	0	0	0	under
Jul 16 '22	3.2	11	5	6	3	2	0	over
Jun 6 '22	5.2	17	4	6	6	2	3	over
Jul 30 '21	6.0	18	2	7	3	2	1	under

4 career games against them · they have hit .292/.347/.508 off him · 72 plate appearances · 2 of 4 went over 2.5

Daniel Lynch IV Breakdown · his own data

K%18.4%—

no split for this stat

23rd percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%250 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

whiff%25.1%—

no split for this stat

51st percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%250 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

K/96.7—

no split for this stat

league avg 8.5-1.8 vs league5 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

first-pitch strike%56.8%—

no split for this stat

8th percentile for first-pitch strikesleague avg 61.9%250 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

The MatchupDaniel Lynch IV: Strikeouts by split

	G	IP	K	K/G	H	over 2.5
at home ●	27	34.2	23	0.85	21	4% (1/27)
on the road	24	27.0	23	0.96	25	13% (3/24)
season	51	61.2	46	0.90	46	8% (4/51)

● tonight's split

2.5line

A★ FORMleans under

the under has hit 85% blended (L10 80%, season 92%) against a 55% priced probability
his K% of 18.4% - 23rd percentile for strikeouts
his first-pitch strike% of 56.8% - 8th percentile for first-pitch strikes

basis: 51 starts this season

OVER+130Bovadafair +123 · +3% vs fair

30% boost+169+20.5% vs market · -78.9% vs season50% boost+195+32.2% vs market · -76.9% vs season

UNDER-117NoVigfair -121 · +1.4% vs fair

30% boost+111+15.5% vs market · +94.6% vs season50% boost+128+24.8% vs market · +110.3% vs season

Outs

51 games logged

line12.5

The Opposing LineupToronto Blue Jays vs Daniel Lynch IVan outs line is a bet on how long this lineup lets him work · season to date

team OBP.308.298

10th percentile for on-base (27 of 30)league avg .3195264 PAvs LHP · 7th pct · 28 of 30season .308 (10th)1543 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER

strikeout rate19.4%20.6%

3rd percentile for strikeouts (29 of 30)league avg 22.1%5264 PAvs LHP · 14th pct · 26 of 30season 19.4% (3rd)1543 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

runs per game4.01—

no split for this stat

0th percentile for runs scored (30 of 30)league avg 4.48141 gamesno vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports OVERseason only

Toronto Blue Jays slash.246 / .308 / .381.689 OPS · 5264 PA

IV's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	103	20.4%	3.9%	7.18	5.25	.175
vs RHB	147	17%	10.2%	6.37	1.67	.221
home ●	137	16.8%	8.8%	5.97	1.92	.172
away	113	20.4%	6.2%	7.67	3.29	.236

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. Walks and crooked numbers end outings early; quick outs extend them.

Against This ClubDaniel Lynch IV vs Toronto Blue Jays4 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 12.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 12.5
Aug 3 '25rel	1.0	3	1	0	0	0	0	under
Jul 16 '22	3.2	11	5	6	3	2	0	under
Jun 6 '22	5.2	17	4	6	6	2	3	over
Jul 30 '21	6.0	18	2	7	3	2	1	over

4 career games against them · they have hit .292/.347/.508 off him · 72 plate appearances · 2 of 4 went over 12.5

Daniel Lynch IV Breakdown · his own data

IP per startthin12.3—

no comparison availableno split for this stat

thin sample: 5 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.05—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.30-0.26 vs league5 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

xERA4.01—

no split for this stat

46th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16250 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

The MatchupDaniel Lynch IV: Outs by split

	G	outs	IP	outs/G	ER	over 12.5
at home ●	27	104	34.2	3.85	9	4% (1/27)
on the road	24	81	27.0	3.38	12	0% (0/24)
season	51	185	61.2	3.63	21	2% (1/51)

● tonight's split

12.5line

A+★ FORMleans under

the under has hit 93% blended (L10 90%, season 98%) against a 40% priced probability
the NoVig price beats the devigged fair by 3.8%
recent form and season agree (90% vs 98%) - the read does not depend on a streak

basis: 51 starts this season

OVER-140Bovadafair -157 · +4.8% vs fair

30% boost-108+17.8% vs market · -96.2% vs season50% boost+107+26.6% vs market · -95.9% vs season

UNDER+163NoVigfair +153 · +3.8% vs fair

30% boost+212+23.2% vs market · +205.8% vs season50% boost+244+36.1% vs market · +237.7% vs season

Hits Allowed

51 games logged

line4.5

The Opposing LineupToronto Blue Jays vs Daniel Lynch IVa hits-allowed line is a bet on how much contact this lineup makes · season to date

team AVG.246.227

55th percentile for batting average (14 of 30)league avg .2445264 PAvs LHP · 3rd pct · 29 of 30season .246 (55th)1543 PAneutralsupports UNDER

team OBP.308.298

10th percentile for on-base (27 of 30)league avg .3195264 PAvs LHP · 7th pct · 28 of 30season .308 (10th)1543 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

strikeout rate19.4%20.6%

3rd percentile for strikeouts (29 of 30)league avg 22.1%5264 PAvs LHP · 14th pct · 26 of 30season 19.4% (3rd)1543 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER

team SLG.381.354

10th percentile for slugging (27 of 30)league avg .4005264 PAvs LHP · 7th pct · 28 of 30season .381 (10th)1543 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

Toronto Blue Jays slash.246 / .308 / .381.689 OPS · 5264 PA

IV's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	103	20.4%	3.9%	7.18	5.25	.175
vs RHB	147	17%	10.2%	6.37	1.67	.221
home ●	137	16.8%	8.8%	5.97	1.92	.172
away	113	20.4%	6.2%	7.67	3.29	.236

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that rarely fans puts more balls in play, and balls in play become hits.

Against This ClubDaniel Lynch IV vs Toronto Blue Jays4 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 4.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 4.5
Aug 3 '25rel	1.0	3	1	0	0	0	0	under
Jul 16 '22	3.2	11	5	6	3	2	0	over
Jun 6 '22	5.2	17	4	6	6	2	3	over
Jul 30 '21	6.0	18	2	7	3	2	1	over

4 career games against them · they have hit .292/.347/.508 off him · 72 plate appearances · 3 of 4 went over 4.5

Daniel Lynch IV Breakdown · his own data

xBA against.244—

no split for this stat

54th percentileleague avg .239250 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

AVG against.202—

no split for this stat

league avg .244-0.042 vs league5 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.05—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.30-0.26 vs league5 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

whiff%25.1%—

no split for this stat

51st percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%250 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

The MatchupDaniel Lynch IV: Hits Allowed by split

	G	IP	H	H/G	K	over 4.5
at home ●	27	34.2	21	0.78	23	0% (0/27)
on the road	24	27.0	25	1.04	23	0% (0/24)
season	51	61.2	46	0.90	46	0% (0/51)

● tonight's split

4.5line

A+★ FORMleans under

the under has hit 100% blended (L10 100%, season 100%) against a 47% priced probability
recent form and season agree (100% vs 100%) - the read does not depend on a streak

basis: 51 starts this season

OVER-115BetMGMfair -112 · -1.2% vs fair

30% boost+113+12.7% vs market · -100% vs season50% boost+130+21.9% vs market · -100% vs season

UNDER+100Hard Rockfair +114 · -6.5% vs fair

30% boost+130+7.4% vs market · +130% vs season50% boost+150+16.8% vs market · +150% vs season

Earned Runs

51 games logged

line1.5

The Opposing LineupToronto Blue Jays vs Daniel Lynch IVan ER line is a bet on the damage this lineup does · season to date

runs per game4.01—

no split for this stat

0th percentile for runs scored (30 of 30)league avg 4.48141 gamesno vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports UNDERseason only

team OBP.308.298

10th percentile for on-base (27 of 30)league avg .3195264 PAvs LHP · 7th pct · 28 of 30season .308 (10th)1543 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

HR rate2.5%2.1%

3rd percentile for home runs (29 of 30)league avg 3.0%5264 PAvs LHP · 14th pct · 26 of 30season 2.5% (3rd)1543 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

team SLG.381.354

10th percentile for slugging (27 of 30)league avg .4005264 PAvs LHP · 7th pct · 28 of 30season .381 (10th)1543 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

Toronto Blue Jays slash.246 / .308 / .381.689 OPS · 5264 PA

IV's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	103	20.4%	3.9%	7.18	5.25	.175
vs RHB	147	17%	10.2%	6.37	1.67	.221
home ●	137	16.8%	8.8%	5.97	1.92	.172
away	113	20.4%	6.2%	7.67	3.29	.236

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. How a lineup scores - and how often it leaves the yard - is most of an earned-run line.

Against This ClubDaniel Lynch IV vs Toronto Blue Jays4 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 1.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 1.5
Aug 3 '25rel	1.0	3	1	0	0	0	0	under
Jul 16 '22	3.2	11	5	6	3	2	0	over
Jun 6 '22	5.2	17	4	6	6	2	3	over
Jul 30 '21	6.0	18	2	7	3	2	1	over

4 career games against them · they have hit .292/.347/.508 off him · 72 plate appearances · 3 of 4 went over 1.5

Daniel Lynch IV Breakdown · his own data

xERA4.01—

no split for this stat

46th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16250 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

ERA3.06—

no split for this stat

20th percentileleague avg 4.175 startsno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

HR/90.73—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.16-0.43 vs league5 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.05—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.30-0.26 vs league5 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

The MatchupDaniel Lynch IV: Earned Runs by split

	G	IP	ER	ERA	H	over 1.5
at home ●	27	34.2	9	2.34	21	7% (2/27)
on the road	24	27.0	12	4.00	25	17% (4/24)
season	51	61.2	21	3.06	46	12% (6/51)

● tonight's split

1.5line

B+★ FORMleans under

the under has hit 71% blended (L10 60%, season 88%) against a 41% priced probability
his ERA of 3.06 - 20th percentile for ERA
the read leans on a recent run - L10 60% vs 88% season

basis: 51 starts this season

OVER-165Hard Rockfair -146 · -4.6% vs fair

30% boost-127+6.2% vs market · -79% vs season50% boost-110+13.4% vs market · -77.5% vs season

UNDER+141NoVigfair +143 · -0.7% vs fair

30% boost+183+16.7% vs market · +150% vs season50% boost+212+28.3% vs market · +174.9% vs season