Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 4:55 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Aaron Jones
MINMiami Dolphins @ Minnesota VikingsSun 4:05 PM
Jones on the fieldred zone touches per game 1.42red zone targets per game 0.42carries per game 11.00
Anytime TD
33 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
MIA · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to RBs0.90.92.3
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.917 games (2025) · 16 totalseason 0.9no per-play form for this stat100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.83 games (2026) · 7 totalsupports OVER12/32 NFL defencessupports OVER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone carries allowed to RBs4.24.25.7
71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.817 games (2025) · 72 totalseason 4.2no per-play form for this stat82nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.93 games (2026) · 17 totalsupports OVER10/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
touchdowns allowed2.82.83.7
77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 47 totalseason 2.8no per-play form for this stat92nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 11 totalsupports OVERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Aaron Jones Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game1.422.80
SZN24th percentile for mostleague avg 2.1912 games (2025)vs last 5 · 78th pctseason 1.42 (24th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports OVER
red zone targets per game0.420.40
SZN64th percentile for mostleague avg 0.3612 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 0.42 (64th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
carries per game11.0018.20
SZN48th percentile for mostleague avg 10.9412 games (2025)vs last 5 · 97th pctseason 11.00 (48th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
receptions per game2.332.00
SZN66th percentile for mostleague avg 2.1512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 47th pctseason 2.33 (66th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
0.5line
OVER-145BetMGMat 0.5
Longest Reception
33 games loggedline10.5
targets
MIA · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to RBs0.12.4%0.3
13th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.317 games (2025) · 2 totalvs per completion · 10th pct · 29 of 32season 0.1 (13th)17 games65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports UNDERT-26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
30+ yard receptions allowed to RBs0.11.2%0.0
35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.117 games (2025) · 1 totalvs per completion · 27th pct · T-23 of 32season 0.1 (35th)17 games40th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.13 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports UNDERT-17/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.20.8%0.7
6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 3 totalvs per completion · 5th pct · T-30 of 32season 0.2 (6th)17 games65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDERT-29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to RBs35.77.228.0
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 34.317 games (2025) · 607 totalvs per reception · 34th pct · T-21 of 32season 35.7 (65th)17 games26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 32.63 games (2026) · 84 totalsupports OVER12/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
air yards faced211.97.2189.3
13th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 3603 totalvs per target · 16th pct · 27 of 32season 211.9 (13th)17 games13th percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 568 totalsupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Aaron Jones Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game2.332.00
SZN66th percentile for mostleague avg 2.1512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 47th pctseason 2.33 (66th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
yards per catch7.175.99
SZN44th percentile for mostleague avg 7.5910 games (2025)vs last 5 · 19th pctseason 7.17 (44th)5 gamesneutralsupports UNDER
air yards per target-1.32-0.53
SZN24th percentile for mostleague avg -0.1312 games (2025)vs last 5 · 46th pctseason -1.32 (24th)5 gamessupports UNDERneutral
20+ yard catches per game0.080.00
SZN31st percentile for mostleague avg 0.1512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 8th pctseason 0.08 (31st)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
10.5line
OVER-115Fliffat 10.5
UNDER-110bet365at 10.5
19.5line
OVER+400bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER+800bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+1150bet365at 39.5
Longest Rush
33 games loggedline14.5
carries
MIA · what this defence allows
10+ yard rushes allowed to RBs2.812.4%2.3
82nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.217 games (2025) · 47 totalvs per carry · 90th pct · 4 of 32season 2.8 (82nd)17 games63rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.03 games (2026) · 7 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
20+ yard rushes allowed to RBs0.83.7%0.3
94th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.517 games (2025) · 14 totalvs per carry · 94th pct · 3 of 32season 0.8 (94th)17 games56th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.33 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports OVER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-10/32 NFL defencesneutral
yards per carry allowed to RBs4.84.83.9
87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.317 games (2025)vs per carry · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 4.8 (87th)17 games32nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.13 games (2026)supports OVER5/32 NFL defencessupports OVER22/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
RB carries stuffed at the line4.218.7%6.0
79th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 3.817 games (2025) · 71 totalvs per carry · 71st pct · 10 of 32season 4.2 (79th)17 games97th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 3.83 games (2026) · 18 totalsupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER2/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Aaron Jones Breakdown · his own data
carries per game11.0018.20
SZN48th percentile for mostleague avg 10.9412 games (2025)vs last 5 · 97th pctseason 11.00 (48th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
yards per carry4.093.66
SZN41st percentile for mostleague avg 4.2312 games (2025)vs last 5 · 22nd pctseason 4.09 (41st)5 gamesneutralsupports UNDER
10+ yard runs per game1.001.00
SZN43rd percentile for mostleague avg 1.1312 games (2025)vs last 5 · 43rd pctseason 1.00 (43rd)5 gamesneutralneutral
snap share55.1%67.2%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 51.1%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 55.1% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
9.5line
OVER-500bet365at 9.5
14.5line
OVER-110bet365at 14.5
UNDER-120bet365at 14.5
19.5line
OVER+210bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER+550bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+850bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER+1150bet365at 49.5
Receiving Yards
33 games loggedline18.5
receptions
MIA · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to RBs36.57.440.7
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 31.617 games (2025) · 621 totalvs per reception · 61st pct · 13 of 32season 36.5 (81st)17 games85th percentile for most allowedleague avg 30.43 games (2026) · 122 totalsupports OVER7/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-5/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receptions allowed to RBs4.989.4%5.0
85th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.317 games (2025) · 84 totalvs per target · 100th pct · 1 of 32season 4.9 (85th)17 games76th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.43 games (2026) · 15 totalsupports OVERT-5/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receiving yards allowed230.610.6231.0
55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 3920 totalvs per reception · 32nd pct · 22 of 32season 230.6 (55th)17 games55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 693 totalneutral15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER15/32 NFL defencesneutral
yards after catch allowed to RBs35.77.228.0
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 34.317 games (2025) · 607 totalvs per reception · 34th pct · T-21 of 32season 35.7 (65th)17 games26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 32.63 games (2026) · 84 totalsupports OVER12/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Aaron Jones Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game2.332.00
SZN66th percentile for mostleague avg 2.1512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 47th pctseason 2.33 (66th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
targets per game3.422.80
SZN80th percentile for mostleague avg 2.7212 games (2025)vs last 5 · 54th pctseason 3.42 (80th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
target share14.0%14.0%
SZN86th percentile for mostleague avg 8.9%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 14.0% (86th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share55.1%67.2%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 51.1%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 55.1% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
18.5line
OVER-115DraftKingsat 18.5
UNDER-109BetOnline.agat 18.5
19.5line
OVER-115bet365at 19.5
UNDER-115bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER+200bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+350bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER+600bet365at 49.5
59.5line
OVER+850bet365at 59.5
69.5line
OVER+1100bet365at 69.5
Receptions
33 games loggedline2.5
targets
MIA · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to RBs4.989.4%5.0
85th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.317 games (2025) · 84 totalvs per target · 100th pct · 1 of 32season 4.9 (85th)17 games76th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.43 games (2026) · 15 totalsupports OVERT-5/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
targets allowed to RBs5.55.55.0
48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.517 games (2025) · 94 totalseason 5.5no per-play form for this stat37th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.53 games (2026) · 15 totalneutralT-16/32 NFL defencesseason onlyT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed21.821.820.3
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 371 totalseason 21.8no per-play form for this stat50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 61 totalsupports OVER11/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-16/32 NFL defencesneutral
Aaron Jones Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game2.332.00
SZN66th percentile for mostleague avg 2.1512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 47th pctseason 2.33 (66th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
targets per game3.422.80
SZN80th percentile for mostleague avg 2.7212 games (2025)vs last 5 · 54th pctseason 3.42 (80th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
target share14.0%14.0%
SZN86th percentile for mostleague avg 8.9%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 14.0% (86th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share55.1%67.2%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 51.1%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 55.1% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
0.5line
OVER-6579bet365at 0.5
1.5line
OVER-700bet365at 1.5
2.5line
OVER-169DraftKingsat 2.5
UNDER+132DraftKingsat 2.5
3.5line
OVER+130bet365at 3.5
UNDER-165bet365at 3.5
4.5line
OVER+275bet365at 4.5
5.5line
OVER+550bet365at 5.5
6.5line
OVER+900bet365at 6.5
Rush + Rec Yards
33 games loggedline88.5
touches
MIA · what this defence allows
rushing yards allowed to RBs107.34.898.0
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 94.917 games (2025) · 1824 totalvs per carry · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 107.3 (81st)17 games55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 91.63 games (2026) · 294 totalsupports OVER7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER15/32 NFL defencesneutral
receiving yards allowed to RBs36.57.440.7
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 31.617 games (2025) · 621 totalvs per reception · 61st pct · 13 of 32season 36.5 (81st)17 games85th percentile for most allowedleague avg 30.43 games (2026) · 122 totalsupports OVER7/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-5/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
rushing yards allowed132.44.8104.3
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 116.917 games (2025) · 2251 totalvs per carry · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 132.4 (81st)17 games37th percentile for most allowedleague avg 111.93 games (2026) · 313 totalsupports OVER7/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-20/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
yards after catch allowed to RBs35.77.228.0
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 34.317 games (2025) · 607 totalvs per reception · 34th pct · T-21 of 32season 35.7 (65th)17 games26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 32.63 games (2026) · 84 totalsupports OVER12/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Aaron Jones Breakdown · his own data
touches per game13.3320.20
no comparison available12 games (2025)vs last 5season 13.335 gamesneutralneutral
carries per game11.0018.20
SZN48th percentile for mostleague avg 10.9412 games (2025)vs last 5 · 97th pctseason 11.00 (48th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
targets per game3.422.80
SZN80th percentile for mostleague avg 2.7212 games (2025)vs last 5 · 54th pctseason 3.42 (80th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
snap share55.1%67.2%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 51.1%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 55.1% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
74.5line
OVER-300bet365at 74.5
88.5line
OVER-114Courtsideat 88.5
UNDER-112Courtsideat 88.5
89.5line
OVER-109Courtsideat 89.5
UNDER-120Fliffat 89.5
91.5line
OVER-115bet365at 91.5
UNDER-115bet365at 91.5
124.5line
OVER+350bet365at 124.5
Rushing Attempts
33 games loggedline17.5
snap share
MIA · what this defence allows
carries allowed to RBs22.481.0%25.3
58th percentile for most allowedleague avg 21.917 games (2025) · 380 totalvs share of carries · 39th pct · T-19 of 32season 22.4 (58th)17 games84th percentile for most allowedleague avg 22.23 games (2026) · 76 totalneutral14/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
runs faced24.941.6%26.3
61st percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.117 games (2025) · 423 totalvs per play · 69th pct · T-10 of 32season 24.9 (61st)17 games77th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.03 games (2026) · 79 totalsupports OVER13/32 NFL defencessupports OVER8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
rushing yards allowed to RBs107.34.898.0
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 94.917 games (2025) · 1824 totalvs per carry · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 107.3 (81st)17 games55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 91.63 games (2026) · 294 totalsupports OVER7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER15/32 NFL defencesneutral
Aaron Jones Breakdown · his own data
snap share55.1%67.2%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 51.1%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 55.1% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
rushing yards per game45.6768.20
SZN47th percentile for mostleague avg 48.1412 games (2025)vs last 5 · 81st pctseason 45.67 (47th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
yards per carry4.093.66
SZN41st percentile for mostleague avg 4.2312 games (2025)vs last 5 · 22nd pctseason 4.09 (41st)5 gamesneutralsupports UNDER
14.5line
OVER-500bet365at 14.5
17.5line
OVER-101DraftKingsat 17.5
UNDER+104betPARXat 17.5
18.5line
OVER+105bet365at 18.5
UNDER-135bet365at 18.5
19.5line
OVER+140bet365at 19.5
24.5line
OVER+750bet365at 24.5
Rushing Yards
33 games loggedline67.5
carries
MIA · what this defence allows
rushing yards allowed to RBs107.34.898.0
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 94.917 games (2025) · 1824 totalvs per carry · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 107.3 (81st)17 games55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 91.63 games (2026) · 294 totalsupports OVER7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER15/32 NFL defencesneutral
carries allowed to RBs22.481.0%25.3
58th percentile for most allowedleague avg 21.917 games (2025) · 380 totalvs share of carries · 39th pct · T-19 of 32season 22.4 (58th)17 games84th percentile for most allowedleague avg 22.23 games (2026) · 76 totalneutral14/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
runs faced24.941.6%26.3
61st percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.117 games (2025) · 423 totalvs per play · 69th pct · T-10 of 32season 24.9 (61st)17 games77th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.03 games (2026) · 79 totalsupports OVER13/32 NFL defencessupports OVER8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
RB carries stuffed at the line4.218.7%6.0
79th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 3.817 games (2025) · 71 totalvs per carry · 71st pct · 10 of 32season 4.2 (79th)17 games97th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 3.83 games (2026) · 18 totalsupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER2/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Aaron Jones Breakdown · his own data
carries per game11.0018.20
SZN48th percentile for mostleague avg 10.9412 games (2025)vs last 5 · 97th pctseason 11.00 (48th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
yards per carry4.093.66
SZN41st percentile for mostleague avg 4.2312 games (2025)vs last 5 · 22nd pctseason 4.09 (41st)5 gamesneutralsupports UNDER
29.5line
OVER-2500bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER-1000bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER-400bet365at 49.5
59.5line
OVER-200bet365at 59.5
66.5line
OVER-111DraftKingsat 66.5
UNDER-113DraftKingsat 66.5
67.5line
OVER-114BetOnline.agat 67.5
UNDER-114BetOnline.agat 67.5
69.5line
OVER-110bet365at 69.5
79.5line
OVER+150bet365at 79.5
89.5line
OVER+250bet365at 89.5
99.5line
OVER+400bet365at 99.5
109.5line
OVER+550bet365at 109.5
119.5line
OVER+800bet365at 119.5
129.5line
OVER+1000bet365at 129.5
139.5line
OVER+1200bet365at 139.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing