STEEZANOMICS.

Aaron Nesmith

IND · NBASFDAL @ INDFri 7:10 PM

Prices last pulled 10:00 AM ET

Points

45 games logged

Aaron Nesmith Points · 45 games logged

11 of 20 (55%) cleared 12.5 over his last 20 · over −106 NoVigsharp book · under −112 BetOnline · prices from

line12.5
12.5
18
14
23
17
12
7
11
3
2
7
9
29
12
32
14
15
5
19
14
26

quoted at 12.5: O -106 (NoVig) · U -112 (BetOnline)

1/26@ ATL1/28vs CHI1/31vs ATL2/2vs HOU2/6@ MIL2/8@ TOR2/10@ NYK2/19@ WAS3/4@ LAC3/6@ LAL3/8@ POR3/10@ SAC3/13vs NYK3/15@ MIL3/17@ NYK3/18vs POR3/21@ SAS3/23@ ORL3/25vs LAL3/27vs LAC

latest26 Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · vs LAC

12.5

11 of 20 (55%) cleared 12.5 over his last 20

minutesno range set28.8 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 530.6last 1030.0last 2028.8last 3029.9all29.6

Points: Breakdowns

Aaron Nesmith Breakdown · his own data
points per game13.8015.80
league avg 11.5845 games (2025)vs last 5season 13.805 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
minutes per game29.630.6
league avg 24.345 games (2025)vs last 5season 29.65 games

Season breakdowns: regular season only. The tiles and the chart can include playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks · what their opponents produce
points allowed to SF25.331.4
93rd percentile for points allowed to a SFleague avg 23.279 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 25.3 (93rd)5 gamessupports OVER28/30 teams, vs a SFsupports OVER
opponent points, all positions119.0124.6
76th percentile for points their opponents produceleague avg 115.682 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 119.0 (76th)5 gamessupports OVER23/30 teams, all positionssupports OVER

Mavericks at Pacers matchup cheat sheet →

Rebounds

45 games logged

Aaron Nesmith Rebounds · 45 games logged

5 of 20 (25%) cleared 3.5 over his last 20 · over −112 BetRivers · under −102 BetOnline · prices from

line3.5
3.5
2
4
1
6
1
1
8
2
3
3
1
4
2
2
1
3
2
2
3
7

quoted at 3.5: O -112 (BetRivers) · U -102 (BetOnline)

1/26@ ATL1/28vs CHI1/31vs ATL2/2vs HOU2/6@ MIL2/8@ TOR2/10@ NYK2/19@ WAS3/4@ LAC3/6@ LAL3/8@ POR3/10@ SAC3/13vs NYK3/15@ MIL3/17@ NYK3/18vs POR3/21@ SAS3/23@ ORL3/25vs LAL3/27vs LAC

latest7 Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · vs LAC

3.5

5 of 20 (25%) cleared 3.5 over his last 20

minutesno range set28.8 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 530.6last 1030.0last 2028.8last 3029.9all29.6

Rebounds: Breakdowns

Aaron Nesmith Breakdown · his own data
rebounds per game4.163.40
league avg 3.8745 games (2025)vs last 5season 4.165 gamesneutralneutral
minutes per game29.630.6
league avg 24.345 games (2025)vs last 5season 29.65 games

Season breakdowns: regular season only. The tiles and the chart can include playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks · what their opponents produce
rebounds allowed to SF9.29.6
97th percentile for rebounds allowed to a SFleague avg 7.779 games (2025)vs last 5 · 72nd pctseason 9.2 (97th)5 gamessupports OVER29/30 teams, vs a SFsupports OVER
opponent rebounds, all positions46.548.2
93rd percentile for rebounds their opponents produceleague avg 43.882 games (2025)vs last 5 · 90th pctseason 46.5 (93rd)5 gamessupports OVER28/30 teams, all positionssupports OVER

Mavericks at Pacers matchup cheat sheet →

Threes

45 games logged

Aaron Nesmith Threes · 45 games logged

11 of 20 (55%) cleared 1.5 over his last 20 · over −155 bet365 · under +125 BetOnline · pull times beside each book

line1.5
1.5
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
7
4
1
1
5
2
4

quoted at 1.5: O -155 (bet365) · U +125 (BetOnline)

1/26@ ATL1/28vs CHI1/31vs ATL2/2vs HOU2/6@ MIL2/8@ TOR2/10@ NYK2/19@ WAS3/4@ LAC3/6@ LAL3/8@ POR3/10@ SAC3/13vs NYK3/15@ MIL3/17@ NYK3/18vs POR3/21@ SAS3/23@ ORL3/25vs LAL3/27vs LAC

latest4 Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · vs LAC

1.5

11 of 20 (55%) cleared 1.5 over his last 20

minutesno range set28.8 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 530.6last 1030.0last 2028.8last 3029.9all29.6

Threes: Breakdowns

Aaron Nesmith Breakdown · his own data
threes per game2.332.60
league avg 1.4045 games (2025)vs last 5season 2.335 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
minutes per game29.630.6
league avg 24.345 games (2025)vs last 5season 29.65 games

Season breakdowns: regular season only. The tiles and the chart can include playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks · what their opponents produce
threes allowed to SF2.94.6
62nd percentile for threes allowed to a SFleague avg 2.879 games (2025)vs last 5 · 90th pctseason 2.9 (62nd)5 gamessupports OVER19/30 teams, vs a SFsupports OVER
opponent threes, all positions12.911.8
31st percentile for threes their opponents produceleague avg 13.382 games (2025)vs last 5 · 21st pctseason 12.9 (31st)5 gamessupports UNDER10/30 teams, all positionssupports UNDER

Mavericks at Pacers matchup cheat sheet →

Pts+Reb

45 games logged

Aaron Nesmith Pts+Reb · 45 games logged

11 of 20 (55%) cleared 16.5 over his last 20 · over −109 BetRivers · prices from

line16.5
16.5
20
18
24
23
13
8
19
5
5
10
10
33
14
34
15
18
7
21
17
33

quoted at 16.5: O -109 (BetRivers) · no under

1/26@ ATL1/28vs CHI1/31vs ATL2/2vs HOU2/6@ MIL2/8@ TOR2/10@ NYK2/19@ WAS3/4@ LAC3/6@ LAL3/8@ POR3/10@ SAC3/13vs NYK3/15@ MIL3/17@ NYK3/18vs POR3/21@ SAS3/23@ ORL3/25vs LAL3/27vs LAC

latest33 Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · vs LAC

16.5

11 of 20 (55%) cleared 16.5 over his last 20

minutesno range set28.8 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 530.6last 1030.0last 2028.8last 3029.9all29.6

Pts+Reb: Breakdowns

Aaron Nesmith Breakdown · his own data
points per game13.8015.80
league avg 11.5845 games (2025)vs last 5season 13.805 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
rebounds per game4.163.40
league avg 3.8745 games (2025)vs last 5season 4.165 gamesneutralneutral
minutes per game29.630.6
league avg 24.345 games (2025)vs last 5season 29.65 games

Season breakdowns: regular season only. The tiles and the chart can include playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks · what their opponents produce
points allowed to SF25.331.4
93rd percentile for points allowed to a SFleague avg 23.279 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 25.3 (93rd)5 gamessupports OVER28/30 teams, vs a SFsupports OVER
rebounds allowed to SF9.29.6
97th percentile for rebounds allowed to a SFleague avg 7.779 games (2025)vs last 5 · 72nd pctseason 9.2 (97th)5 gamessupports OVER29/30 teams, vs a SFsupports OVER
opponent points, all positions119.0124.6
76th percentile for points their opponents produceleague avg 115.682 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 119.0 (76th)5 gamessupports OVER23/30 teams, all positionssupports OVER
opponent rebounds, all positions46.548.2
93rd percentile for rebounds their opponents produceleague avg 43.882 games (2025)vs last 5 · 90th pctseason 46.5 (93rd)5 gamessupports OVER28/30 teams, all positionssupports OVER

Mavericks at Pacers matchup cheat sheet →

First Basket

41 games logged

Aaron Nesmith First Basket · 41 games logged

1 of 20 (5%) scored first in his last 20 (measured starts only) · to score +800 bet365 · prices from

line0.5
1+ first basket
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

quoted at 0.5: O +800 (bet365) · no under

1/23@ OKC1/26@ ATL1/31vs ATL2/2vs HOU2/6@ MIL2/8@ TOR2/10@ NYK2/19@ WAS3/4@ LAC3/6@ LAL3/8@ POR3/10@ SAC3/13vs NYK3/15@ MIL3/17@ NYK3/18vs POR3/21@ SAS3/23@ ORL3/25vs LAL3/27vs LAC

latest0 Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · vs LAC

first basket

1 of 20 (5%) scored first in his last 20 (measured starts only)

minutesno range set28.9 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 530.6last 1030.0last 2028.9last 3029.7all29.9

First Basket: Breakdowns

First basket

First score of the game, including free throws. Non-starters are void. Settlement rule

Starting status not confirmed. A posted price does not confirm a starting spot.

Nesmith and the Pacers

No measured starts in 2026-27 yet.
small sample: 1 games
The Pacers scored first0 of 1 games · 1st fewest of 30
mostfewest
Pacers 0.0%middle 50.0%: every game has one team that scores first

Won the opening tip 1 of 1 (100.0%).

The Mavericks' defense

0.0%an SF scored first against them in 0 of 1 games
1st fewest of 301st percentileleague middle 0.0%small sample: 1 games
Who scores first against the Mavericks, by position
Expected IND PG · Andrew Nembhard · 0.0% first baskets in 2026-27 (0 of 1 starts)Expected IND SF · Aaron Nesmith · no start on file in 2026-27Expected IND PF · Pascal Siakam · 0.0% first baskets in 2026-27 (0 of 1 starts)Expected IND C · Ivica Zubac · 0.0% first baskets in 2026-27 (0 of 1 starts)

PG: 0 of 1 games (0.0%) · 1st fewest of 30 · 1st percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 0.0%league middle 0.0%, the median club for a PG

SG: 0 of 1 games (0.0%) · 1st fewest of 30 · 1st percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 0.0%league middle 0.0%, the median club for an SG

SF: 0 of 1 games (0.0%) · 1st fewest of 30 · 1st percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 0.0%league middle 0.0%, the median club for an SF

PF: 0 of 1 games (0.0%) · 1st fewest of 30 · 1st percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 0.0%league middle 0.0%, the median club for a PF

C: 0 of 1 games (0.0%) · 1st fewest of 30 · 1st percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 0.0%league middle 0.0%, the median club for a C
Opponents scored first against the Mavericks0 of 1 games · 1st fewest of 30
mostfewest
Mavericks 0.0%middle 50.0%

Won the opening tip 0 of 1 (0.0%).

Mavericks at Pacers matchup cheat sheet →

Nesmith and the Pacers

4.9%scored first in 2 of 41 starts
174th of 202 starters14th percentiletook his team's first shot 10 of 41
When the Pacers scored first, who scored38 of 79 games
  • Pascal Siakam9 · 23.7%
  • Jay Huff7 · 18.4%
  • Andrew Nembhard6 · 15.8%
  • Bennedict Mathurin3 · 7.9%
  • Aaron Nesmith2 · 5.3%
  • Everyone else11 · 28.9%
The Pacers scored first38 of 79 games · 13th fewest of 30
mostfewest
Pacers 48.1%middle 50.0%: every game has one team that scores first

Won the opening tip 39 of 79 (49.4%).

The Mavericks' defense

11.2%an SF scored first against them in 9 of 80 games
10th most of 3066th percentileleague middle 8.9%
Who scores first against the Mavericks, by position
Expected IND PG · Andrew Nembhard · 11.1% first baskets in 2025-26 (6 of 54 starts)Expected IND SF · Aaron Nesmith · 4.9% first baskets in 2025-26 (2 of 41 starts)Expected IND PF · Pascal Siakam · 15.3% first baskets in 2025-26 (9 of 59 starts)Expected IND C · Ivica Zubac · 8.9% first baskets in 2025-26 (4 of 45 starts)

PG: 8 of 80 games (10.0%) · 13th most of 30 · 52nd percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 10.0%league middle 9.9%, the median club for a PG

SG: 7 of 80 games (8.8%) · 14th fewest of 30 · 45th percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 8.8%league middle 8.9%, the median club for an SG

SF: 9 of 80 games (11.2%) · 10th most of 30 · 66th percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 11.2%league middle 8.9%, the median club for an SF

PF: 9 of 80 games (11.2%) · 7th most of 30 · 69th percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 11.2%league middle 8.9%, the median club for a PF

C: 13 of 80 games (16.2%) · 5th most of 30 · 86th percentile

mostfewest
Mavericks 16.2%league middle 10.0%, the median club for a C
Opponents scored first against the Mavericks46 of 80 games · 5th most of 30
mostfewest
Mavericks 57.5%middle 50.0%

Won the opening tip 31 of 80 (38.8%).

Mavericks at Pacers matchup cheat sheet →

ESPN play-by-play, regular season, measured games only. Positions are this season's rosters; a scorer who has left the league is not counted at any position.

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Other markets

Aaron Nesmith, every other prop for this game

Rebounds3.5
last 10 2 of 10 (20%) · last 20 5 of 20 (25%)
O −112 · U −102
show
Threes1.5
last 10 6 of 10 (60%) · last 20 11 of 20 (55%)
O −155 · U +125
show
Pts+Reb16.5
last 10 6 of 10 (60%) · last 20 11 of 20 (55%)
O −109 · U –
show
First Basket
last 10 1 of 10 (10%) · last 20 1 of 20 (5%)
Yes +800
show
O 12.5 −106 NoVig · U 12.5 −112 BetOnlineprices from