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Aaron Nola
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies @ Atlanta BravesThu 8:11 PMTruist Park
Nola on the mound
Runs
The MatchupAaron Nola: Runs by split
| G | PA | R | R/G | OBP | over 1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road ● | 17 | — | — | — | — | 0% (0/17) |
| at home | 16 | — | — | — | — | 0% (0/16) |
| season | 33 | — | — | — | — | 0% (0/33) |
● tonight's split
The BatAaron Nola: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | R/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| vs LHP | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| on the road ● | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| at home | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| season | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
1.5line
OVER-125Pinnacleat 1.5
30% boost+10450% boost+120
UNDER+103Pinnacleat 1.5
30% boost+13450% boost+155
Strikeouts
33 games loggedline3.5
outs recorded
The Opposing LineupAtlanta Braves vs Aaron Nolaa strikeout line is a bet on the lineup as much as the arm · season to date
strikeout rate21.6%21.7%
31st percentile for strikeouts (21 of 30)league avg 22.1%6053 PAvs RHP · 52nd pct · 15 of 30season 21.6% (31st)4014 PAsupports UNDERneutral
walk rate7.7%8.0%
7th percentile for walks drawn (28 of 30)league avg 8.9%6053 PAvs RHP · 7th pct · 28 of 30season 7.7% (7th)4014 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
team AVG.246.250
69th percentile for batting average (10 of 30)league avg .2446053 PAvs RHP · 76th pct · 8 of 30season .246 (69th)4014 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
Atlanta Braves slash.246 / .309 / .409.718 OPS · 6053 PA
Nola's own splits
| BF | K% | BB% | K/9 | K:BB | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 458 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 8.68 | 2.02 | .251 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 26.6% | 3.1% | 9.96 | 8.44 | .278 |
| home | 356 | 24.7% | 6.7% | 9.70 | 3.67 | .287 |
| away ● | 388 | 22.9% | 9% | 8.55 | 2.54 | .239 |
Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that fans 3 points above league average is worth more to a strikeout line than any recent-form streak.
Against This ClubAaron Nola vs Atlanta Braves20 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 3.5
| when | IP | outs | K | H | ER | BB | HR | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 '26 | 6.1 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | under |
| Sep 6 '26 | 7.0 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | over |
| Apr 26 '26 | 4.2 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | over |
| Aug 28 '25 | 6.0 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | over |
| Sep 1 '24 | 6.0 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | over |
| Aug 21 '24 | 5.1 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | over |
| Jul 5 '24 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | over |
| Mar 30 '24 | 4.1 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | under |
| Sep 20 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | over |
| Jun 22 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | over |
| May 25 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | over |
| Sep 23 '22 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | over |
| Sep 17 '22 | 7.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | over |
| Jul 26 '22 | 6.0 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | over |
| Jun 30 '22 | 7.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | over |
| May 26 '22 | 8.1 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | over |
| Sep 29 '21 | 6.0 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | over |
| Jul 25 '21 | 8.2 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | over |
| Jun 8 '21 | 5.0 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | over |
| May 9 '21 | 4.0 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | over |
| 21 earlier | — | 392 | 118 | 109 | 44 | 41 | 15 | — |
41 career games against them · they have hit .238/.295/.413 off him · 1039 plate appearances · 18 of 20 went over 3.5
Aaron Nola Breakdown · his own data
K%23.8%23.8%
60th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.9%744 batters facedseason 23.8%no split by hand for this stat, season onlysupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%27.1%27.1%
65th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.5%744 batters facedseason 27.1%no split by hand for this stat, season onlysupports OVERsupports OVER
K/99.19.1
league avg 8.5+0.6 vs league33 startsseason 9.1no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
first-pitch strike%64.1%64.1%
70th percentile for first-pitch strikesleague avg 61.8%744 batters facedseason 64.1%no split by hand for this stat, season onlysupports OVERsupports OVER
The MatchupAaron Nola: Strikeouts by split
| G | IP | K | K/G | H | over 3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road ● | 17 | 93.2 | 89 | 5.24 | 83 | 76% (13/17) |
| at home | 16 | 81.2 | 88 | 5.50 | 94 | 94% (15/16) |
| season | 33 | 175.1 | 177 | 5.36 | 177 | 85% (28/33) |
● tonight's split
0.5line
OVER-2801bet365at 0.5
30% boost-215550% boost-1867
1.5line
OVER-700bet365at 1.5
30% boost-53850% boost-467
2.5line
OVER-275bet365at 2.5
30% boost-21250% boost-183
UNDER+230theScore Betat 2.5
30% boost+29950% boost+345
3.5line
A★ FORM leans over
- the over has hit 82% blended (L10 80%, season 85%) against a 52% priced probability
- recent form and season agree (80% vs 85%) - the read does not depend on a streak
basis: 33 starts this season
OVER-107ProphetXat 3.5
30% boost+12150% boost+140
UNDER+108NoVigat 3.5
30% boost+14050% boost+162
4.5line
OVER+190theScore Betat 4.5
30% boost+24750% boost+285
UNDER-275theScore Betat 4.5
30% boost-21250% boost-183
5.5line
OVER+400BetMGMat 5.5
30% boost+52050% boost+600
UNDER-1150NoVigat 5.5
30% boost-88550% boost-767
6.5line
OVER+875BetMGMat 6.5
30% boost+113850% boost+1312
7.5line
OVER+1800theScore Betat 7.5
30% boost+234050% boost+2700
8.5line
OVER+4000Hard Rockat 8.5
30% boost+520050% boost+6000
9.5line
OVER+1700bet365at 9.5
30% boost+221050% boost+2550
Outs
33 games loggedline11.5
The Opposing LineupAtlanta Braves vs Aaron Nolaan outs line is a bet on how long this lineup lets him work · season to date
team OBP.309.314
7th percentile for on-base (28 of 30)league avg .3186053 PAvs RHP · 31st pct · 21 of 30season .309 (7th)4014 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
strikeout rate21.6%21.7%
31st percentile for strikeouts (21 of 30)league avg 22.1%6053 PAvs RHP · 52nd pct · 15 of 30season 21.6% (31st)4014 PAsupports UNDERneutral
runs per game4.584.58
69th percentile for runs scored (10 of 30)league avg 4.48162 gamesseason 4.58no vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
Atlanta Braves slash.246 / .309 / .409.718 OPS · 6053 PA
Nola's own splits
| BF | K% | BB% | K/9 | K:BB | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 458 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 8.68 | 2.02 | .251 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 26.6% | 3.1% | 9.96 | 8.44 | .278 |
| home | 356 | 24.7% | 6.7% | 9.70 | 3.67 | .287 |
| away ● | 388 | 22.9% | 9% | 8.55 | 2.54 | .239 |
Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. Walks and crooked numbers end outings early; quick outs extend them.
Against This ClubAaron Nola vs Atlanta Braves20 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 11.5
| when | IP | outs | K | H | ER | BB | HR | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 '26 | 6.1 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | over |
| Sep 6 '26 | 7.0 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | over |
| Apr 26 '26 | 4.2 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | over |
| Aug 28 '25 | 6.0 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | over |
| Sep 1 '24 | 6.0 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | over |
| Aug 21 '24 | 5.1 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | over |
| Jul 5 '24 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | over |
| Mar 30 '24 | 4.1 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | over |
| Sep 20 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | over |
| Jun 22 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | over |
| May 25 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | over |
| Sep 23 '22 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | over |
| Sep 17 '22 | 7.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | over |
| Jul 26 '22 | 6.0 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | over |
| Jun 30 '22 | 7.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | over |
| May 26 '22 | 8.1 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | over |
| Sep 29 '21 | 6.0 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | over |
| Jul 25 '21 | 8.2 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | over |
| Jun 8 '21 | 5.0 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | over |
| May 9 '21 | 4.0 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | over |
| 21 earlier | — | 392 | 118 | 109 | 44 | 41 | 15 | — |
41 career games against them · they have hit .238/.295/.413 off him · 1039 plate appearances · 20 of 20 went over 11.5
Aaron Nola Breakdown · his own data
IP per start5.35.3
no comparison availableno comparison available33 startsseason 5.3no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
WHIP1.351.35
league avg 1.30+0.05 vs league33 startsseason 1.35no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
xERA4.184.18
53rd percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.20744 batters facedseason 4.18no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
The MatchupAaron Nola: Outs by split
| G | outs | IP | outs/G | ER | over 11.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road ● | 17 | 281 | 93.2 | 16.53 | 40 | 94% (16/17) |
| at home | 16 | 245 | 81.2 | 15.31 | 51 | 94% (15/16) |
| season | 33 | 526 | 175.1 | 15.94 | 91 | 94% (31/33) |
● tonight's split
10.5line
OVER-165BetRiversat 10.5
30% boost-12750% boost-110
11.5line
A+★ FORM leans over
- the over has hit 92% blended (L10 90%, season 94%) against a 53% priced probability
- recent form and season agree (90% vs 94%) - the read does not depend on a streak
basis: 33 starts this season
OVER-125NoVigat 11.5
30% boost+10450% boost+120
UNDER+104NoVigat 11.5
30% boost+13550% boost+156
12.5line
OVER+144NoVigat 12.5
30% boost+18750% boost+216
UNDER-145BetMGMat 12.5
30% boost-11250% boost+103
Hits Allowed
33 games loggedline3.5
outs recorded
The Opposing LineupAtlanta Braves vs Aaron Nolaa hits-allowed line is a bet on how much contact this lineup makes · season to date
team AVG.246.250
69th percentile for batting average (10 of 30)league avg .2446053 PAvs RHP · 76th pct · 8 of 30season .246 (69th)4014 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
team OBP.309.314
7th percentile for on-base (28 of 30)league avg .3186053 PAvs RHP · 31st pct · 21 of 30season .309 (7th)4014 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
strikeout rate21.6%21.7%
31st percentile for strikeouts (21 of 30)league avg 22.1%6053 PAvs RHP · 52nd pct · 15 of 30season 21.6% (31st)4014 PAsupports OVERneutral
team SLG.409.416
83rd percentile for slugging (6 of 30)league avg .4006053 PAvs RHP · 79th pct · 7 of 30season .409 (83rd)4014 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
Atlanta Braves slash.246 / .309 / .409.718 OPS · 6053 PA
Nola's own splits
| BF | K% | BB% | K/9 | K:BB | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 458 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 8.68 | 2.02 | .251 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 26.6% | 3.1% | 9.96 | 8.44 | .278 |
| home | 356 | 24.7% | 6.7% | 9.70 | 3.67 | .287 |
| away ● | 388 | 22.9% | 9% | 8.55 | 2.54 | .239 |
Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that rarely fans puts more balls in play, and balls in play become hits.
Against This ClubAaron Nola vs Atlanta Braves20 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 3.5
| when | IP | outs | K | H | ER | BB | HR | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 '26 | 6.1 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | over |
| Sep 6 '26 | 7.0 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | over |
| Apr 26 '26 | 4.2 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | over |
| Aug 28 '25 | 6.0 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | over |
| Sep 1 '24 | 6.0 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | over |
| Aug 21 '24 | 5.1 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | over |
| Jul 5 '24 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | over |
| Mar 30 '24 | 4.1 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | over |
| Sep 20 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | over |
| Jun 22 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | under |
| May 25 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | over |
| Sep 23 '22 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | over |
| Sep 17 '22 | 7.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | over |
| Jul 26 '22 | 6.0 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | over |
| Jun 30 '22 | 7.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | over |
| May 26 '22 | 8.1 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | over |
| Sep 29 '21 | 6.0 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | over |
| Jul 25 '21 | 8.2 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | over |
| Jun 8 '21 | 5.0 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | over |
| May 9 '21 | 4.0 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | over |
| 21 earlier | — | 392 | 118 | 109 | 44 | 41 | 15 | — |
41 career games against them · they have hit .238/.295/.413 off him · 1039 plate appearances · 19 of 20 went over 3.5
Aaron Nola Breakdown · his own data
xBA against.243.243
52nd percentileleague avg .240744 batters facedseason .243no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
AVG against.262.262
league avg .244+.018 vs league33 startsseason .262no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
WHIP1.351.35
league avg 1.30+0.05 vs league33 startsseason 1.35no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
whiff%27.1%27.1%
65th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.5%744 batters facedseason 27.1%no split by hand for this stat, season onlysupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupAaron Nola: Hits Allowed by split
| G | IP | H | H/G | K | over 3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road ● | 17 | 93.2 | 83 | 4.88 | 89 | 71% (12/17) |
| at home | 16 | 81.2 | 94 | 5.88 | 88 | 100% (16/16) |
| season | 33 | 175.1 | 177 | 5.36 | 177 | 85% (28/33) |
● tonight's split
3.5line
A★ FORM leans over
- the over has hit 82% blended (L10 80%, season 85%) against a 52% priced probability
- recent form and season agree (80% vs 85%) - the read does not depend on a streak
basis: 33 starts this season
OVER-111DraftKingsat 3.5
30% boost+11750% boost+135
UNDER+112ProphetXat 3.5
30% boost+14650% boost+168
Earned Runs
33 games loggedline1.5
outs recorded
The Opposing LineupAtlanta Braves vs Aaron Nolaan ER line is a bet on the damage this lineup does · season to date
runs per game4.584.58
69th percentile for runs scored (10 of 30)league avg 4.48162 gamesseason 4.58no vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports OVERsupports OVER
team OBP.309.314
7th percentile for on-base (28 of 30)league avg .3186053 PAvs RHP · 31st pct · 21 of 30season .309 (7th)4014 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
HR rate3.4%3.5%
83rd percentile for home runs (6 of 30)league avg 3.0%6053 PAvs RHP · 93rd pct · 3 of 30season 3.4% (83rd)4014 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
team SLG.409.416
83rd percentile for slugging (6 of 30)league avg .4006053 PAvs RHP · 79th pct · 7 of 30season .409 (83rd)4014 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
Atlanta Braves slash.246 / .309 / .409.718 OPS · 6053 PA
Nola's own splits
| BF | K% | BB% | K/9 | K:BB | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 458 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 8.68 | 2.02 | .251 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 26.6% | 3.1% | 9.96 | 8.44 | .278 |
| home | 356 | 24.7% | 6.7% | 9.70 | 3.67 | .287 |
| away ● | 388 | 22.9% | 9% | 8.55 | 2.54 | .239 |
Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. How a lineup scores - and how often it leaves the yard - is most of an earned-run line.
Against This ClubAaron Nola vs Atlanta Braves20 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 1.5
| when | IP | outs | K | H | ER | BB | HR | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 '26 | 6.1 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | over |
| Sep 6 '26 | 7.0 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | under |
| Apr 26 '26 | 4.2 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | over |
| Aug 28 '25 | 6.0 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | over |
| Sep 1 '24 | 6.0 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | over |
| Aug 21 '24 | 5.1 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | over |
| Jul 5 '24 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | over |
| Mar 30 '24 | 4.1 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | over |
| Sep 20 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | over |
| Jun 22 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | under |
| May 25 '23 | 6.0 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | over |
| Sep 23 '22 | 6.0 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | under |
| Sep 17 '22 | 7.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | over |
| Jul 26 '22 | 6.0 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | over |
| Jun 30 '22 | 7.0 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | over |
| May 26 '22 | 8.1 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | under |
| Sep 29 '21 | 6.0 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | over |
| Jul 25 '21 | 8.2 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | under |
| Jun 8 '21 | 5.0 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | over |
| May 9 '21 | 4.0 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | over |
| 21 earlier | — | 392 | 118 | 109 | 44 | 41 | 15 | — |
41 career games against them · they have hit .238/.295/.413 off him · 1039 plate appearances · 15 of 20 went over 1.5
Aaron Nola Breakdown · his own data
xERA4.184.18
53rd percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.20744 batters facedseason 4.18no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
ERA4.674.67
69th percentileleague avg 4.1733 startsseason 4.67no split by hand for this stat, season onlysupports OVERsupports OVER
HR/91.901.90
league avg 1.16+0.74 vs league33 startsseason 1.90no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
WHIP1.351.35
league avg 1.30+0.05 vs league33 startsseason 1.35no split by hand for this stat, season onlyneutralseason only
The MatchupAaron Nola: Earned Runs by split
| G | IP | ER | ERA | H | over 1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road ● | 17 | 93.2 | 40 | 3.84 | 83 | 65% (11/17) |
| at home | 16 | 81.2 | 51 | 5.62 | 94 | 88% (14/16) |
| season | 33 | 175.1 | 91 | 4.67 | 177 | 76% (25/33) |
● tonight's split
1.5line
OVER-120NoVigat 1.5
30% boost+10850% boost+125
UNDER+108NoVigat 1.5
30% boost+14050% boost+162
Opposing hitters on the prop boardPhiladelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Bravessorted by the focused market, not batting order
odds snapshot · feeds refreshed 7:00 PM ET · not live pricing