Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 2:04 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Christian Watson
GBGreen Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun 1:00 PM
Watson on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.40red zone targets per game 0.60receptions per game 3.50
Anytime TD
28 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
TB · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to WRs0.80.80.7
34th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.917 games (2025) · 14 totalseason 0.8no per-play form for this stat29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.93 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDERT-21/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
red zone targets allowed to WRs1.91.91.7
23rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 32 totalseason 1.9no per-play form for this stat29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 5 totalsupports UNDERT-23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-22/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
touchdowns allowed2.72.71.7
69th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 46 totalseason 2.7no per-play form for this stat16th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 5 totalsupports OVERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Christian Watson Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.400.80
SZN60th percentile for mostleague avg 0.3610 games (2025)vs last 5 · 93rd pctseason 0.40 (60th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
red zone targets per game0.601.80
SZN54th percentile for mostleague avg 0.6310 games (2025)vs last 5 · 98th pctseason 0.60 (54th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
receptions per game3.504.80
SZN69th percentile for mostleague avg 2.8910 games (2025)vs last 5 · 90th pctseason 3.50 (69th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
0.5line
OVER+195Bovadaat 0.5
Longest Reception
28 games loggedline23.5
targets
TB · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to WRs2.117.6%1.7
63rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.017 games (2025) · 35 totalvs per completion · 45th pct · 18 of 32season 2.1 (63rd)17 games35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.13 games (2026) · 5 totalsupports OVERT-12/32 NFL defencesneutralT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
30+ yard receptions allowed to WRs0.76.0%1.0
39th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.817 games (2025) · 12 totalvs per completion · 31st pct · T-22 of 32season 0.7 (39th)17 games58th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.93 games (2026) · 3 totalsupports UNDERT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-8/32 NFL defencesneutral
40+ yard receptions allowed to WRs0.54.0%0.7
89th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.317 games (2025) · 8 totalvs per completion · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 0.5 (89th)17 games76th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.43 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports OVERT-3/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to WRs47.84.145.7
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 45.517 games (2025) · 813 totalvs per reception · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 47.8 (68th)17 games60th percentile for most allowedleague avg 45.03 games (2026) · 137 totalsupports OVER11/32 NFL defencesneutralT-13/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
air yards faced257.48.0188.7
74th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 4375 totalvs per target · 65th pct · 12 of 32season 257.4 (74th)17 games10th percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 566 totalsupports OVER9/32 NFL defencessupports OVER29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Christian Watson Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.504.80
SZN69th percentile for mostleague avg 2.8910 games (2025)vs last 5 · 90th pctseason 3.50 (69th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
yards per catch17.7115.91
SZN93rd percentile for mostleague avg 12.9010 games (2025)vs last 5 · 88th pctseason 17.71 (93rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
air yards per target18.4811.33
SZN98th percentile for mostleague avg 11.2010 games (2025)vs last 5 · 51st pctseason 18.48 (98th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
20+ yard catches per game1.101.60
SZN91st percentile for mostleague avg 0.5310 games (2025)vs last 5 · 99th pctseason 1.10 (91st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
19.5line
OVER-210bet365at 19.5
23.5line
OVER-115bet365at 23.5
UNDER-115bet365at 23.5
29.5line
OVER+160bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+320bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER+650bet365at 49.5
Receiving Yards
28 games loggedline66.5
receptions
TB · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to WRs147.612.6119.0
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 139.617 games (2025) · 2509 totalvs per reception · 52nd pct · 16 of 32season 147.6 (65th)17 games19th percentile for most allowedleague avg 148.33 games (2026) · 357 totalsupports OVER12/32 NFL defencesneutral26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed to WRs11.761.6%9.3
66th percentile for most allowedleague avg 11.017 games (2025) · 199 totalvs per target · 44th pct · T-18 of 32season 11.7 (66th)17 games10th percentile for most allowedleague avg 11.33 games (2026) · 28 totalsupports OVERT-11/32 NFL defencesneutral29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receiving yards allowed254.811.4220.0
84th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 4332 totalvs per reception · 77th pct · 8 of 32season 254.8 (84th)17 games42nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 660 totalsupports OVER6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER19/32 NFL defencesneutral
yards after catch allowed to WRs47.84.145.7
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 45.517 games (2025) · 813 totalvs per reception · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 47.8 (68th)17 games60th percentile for most allowedleague avg 45.03 games (2026) · 137 totalsupports OVER11/32 NFL defencesneutralT-13/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Christian Watson Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.504.80
SZN69th percentile for mostleague avg 2.8910 games (2025)vs last 5 · 90th pctseason 3.50 (69th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
targets per game5.508.20
SZN65th percentile for mostleague avg 4.6810 games (2025)vs last 5 · 93rd pctseason 5.50 (65th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
target share20.2%25.3%
SZN76th percentile for mostleague avg 15.1%10 games (2025)vs last 5 · 91st pctseason 20.2% (76th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share67.7%74.0%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 61.6%10 games (2025)vs last 5 · 69th pctseason 67.7% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
19.5line
OVER-2500bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER-900bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER-400bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER-240bet365at 49.5
59.5line
OVER-150bet365at 59.5
64.5line
OVER-110DraftKingsat 64.5
UNDER-114BetOnline.agat 64.5
66.5line
OVER-113betPARXat 66.5
UNDER-115BetMGMat 66.5
79.5line
OVER+155bet365at 79.5
89.5line
OVER+225bet365at 89.5
99.5line
OVER+320bet365at 99.5
109.5line
OVER+475bet365at 109.5
119.5line
OVER+600bet365at 119.5
129.5line
OVER+800bet365at 129.5
139.5line
OVER+900bet365at 139.5
149.5line
OVER+1100bet365at 149.5
Receptions
28 games loggedline4.5
targets
TB · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to WRs11.761.6%9.3
66th percentile for most allowedleague avg 11.017 games (2025) · 199 totalvs per target · 44th pct · T-18 of 32season 11.7 (66th)17 games10th percentile for most allowedleague avg 11.33 games (2026) · 28 totalsupports OVERT-11/32 NFL defencesneutral29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
targets allowed to WRs19.019.014.7
77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 17.817 games (2025) · 323 totalseason 19.0no per-play form for this stat5th percentile for most allowedleague avg 18.23 games (2026) · 44 totalsupports OVER8/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed22.322.321.3
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 379 totalseason 22.3no per-play form for this stat63rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 64 totalsupports OVER7/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-12/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Christian Watson Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.504.80
SZN69th percentile for mostleague avg 2.8910 games (2025)vs last 5 · 90th pctseason 3.50 (69th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
targets per game5.508.20
SZN65th percentile for mostleague avg 4.6810 games (2025)vs last 5 · 93rd pctseason 5.50 (65th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
target share20.2%25.3%
SZN76th percentile for mostleague avg 15.1%10 games (2025)vs last 5 · 91st pctseason 20.2% (76th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share67.7%74.0%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 61.6%10 games (2025)vs last 5 · 69th pctseason 67.7% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
1.5line
OVER-6579bet365at 1.5
2.5line
OVER-1200bet365at 2.5
3.5line
OVER-350bet365at 3.5
4.5line
OVER-143betPARXat 4.5
UNDER+120BetMGMat 4.5
5.5line
OVER+140bet365at 5.5
6.5line
OVER+275bet365at 6.5
7.5line
OVER+500bet365at 7.5
8.5line
OVER+800bet365at 8.5
9.5line
OVER+1150bet365at 9.5
Rush + Rec Yards
28 games loggedline66.5
touches
TB · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to WRs147.612.6119.0
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 139.617 games (2025) · 2509 totalvs per reception · 52nd pct · 16 of 32season 147.6 (65th)17 games19th percentile for most allowedleague avg 148.33 games (2026) · 357 totalsupports OVER12/32 NFL defencesneutral26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
rushing yards allowed to WRs1.86.01.3
23rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.717 games (2025) · 30 totalvs per carry · 63rd pct · T-12 of 32season 1.8 (23rd)17 games50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.43 games (2026) · 4 totalsupports UNDER25/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-16/32 NFL defencesneutral
receiving yards allowed254.811.4220.0
84th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 4332 totalvs per reception · 77th pct · 8 of 32season 254.8 (84th)17 games42nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 660 totalsupports OVER6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER19/32 NFL defencesneutral
yards after catch allowed to WRs47.84.145.7
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 45.517 games (2025) · 813 totalvs per reception · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 47.8 (68th)17 games60th percentile for most allowedleague avg 45.03 games (2026) · 137 totalsupports OVER11/32 NFL defencesneutralT-13/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Christian Watson Breakdown · his own data
touches per game3.604.80
no comparison available10 games (2025)vs last 5season 3.605 gamesneutralneutral
targets per game5.508.20
SZN65th percentile for mostleague avg 4.6810 games (2025)vs last 5 · 93rd pctseason 5.50 (65th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share67.7%74.0%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 61.6%10 games (2025)vs last 5 · 69th pctseason 67.7% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
49.5line
OVER-260bet365at 49.5
66.5line
OVER-115bet365at 66.5
UNDER-115bet365at 66.5
74.5line
OVER+120bet365at 74.5
99.5line
OVER+300bet365at 99.5
124.5line
OVER+650bet365at 124.5
149.5line
OVER+1000bet365at 149.5
Rushing Attempts
28 games loggedline0.5
snap share
TB · what this defence allows
carries allowed to WRs0.31.3%0.7
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.717 games (2025) · 5 totalvs share of carries · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 0.3 (3rd)17 games71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
runs faced20.434.9%21.3
3rd percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.117 games (2025) · 346 totalvs per play · 10th pct · 29 of 32season 20.4 (3rd)17 games19th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.03 games (2026) · 64 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
rushing yards allowed to WRs1.86.01.3
23rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.717 games (2025) · 30 totalvs per carry · 63rd pct · T-12 of 32season 1.8 (23rd)17 games50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.43 games (2026) · 4 totalsupports UNDER25/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-16/32 NFL defencesneutral
Christian Watson Breakdown · his own data
snap share67.7%74.0%
SZN61st percentile for mostleague avg 61.6%10 games (2025)vs last 5 · 69th pctseason 67.7% (61st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
rushing yards per game0.300.00
SZN59th percentile for mostleague avg 0.9710 games (2025)vs last 5 · 29th pctseason 0.30 (59th)5 gamesneutralsupports UNDER
yards per carrythin3.003.62
SZN25th percentile for mostleague avg 5.22thin sample: 1 games (2025)vs last 5 · 34th pctseason 3.00 (25th)4 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER+210bet365at 0.5
UNDER-280bet365at 0.5
Rushing Yards
28 games loggedline0.5
carries
TB · what this defence allows
rushing yards allowed to WRs1.86.01.3
23rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.717 games (2025) · 30 totalvs per carry · 63rd pct · T-12 of 32season 1.8 (23rd)17 games50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.43 games (2026) · 4 totalsupports UNDER25/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-16/32 NFL defencesneutral
carries allowed to WRs0.31.3%0.7
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.717 games (2025) · 5 totalvs share of carries · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 0.3 (3rd)17 games71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
runs faced20.434.9%21.3
3rd percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.117 games (2025) · 346 totalvs per play · 10th pct · 29 of 32season 20.4 (3rd)17 games19th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.03 games (2026) · 64 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
runs stuffed at the line4.823.4%4.0
79th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 4.317 games (2025) · 81 totalvs per carry · 100th pct · 1 of 32season 4.8 (79th)17 games45th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 4.23 games (2026) · 12 totalsupports UNDERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-17/32 NFL defencesneutral
Christian Watson Breakdown · his own data
yards per carrythin3.003.62
SZN25th percentile for mostleague avg 5.22thin sample: 1 games (2025)vs last 5 · 34th pctseason 3.00 (25th)4 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER+290bet365at 0.5
UNDER-400bet365at 0.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing