STEEZANOMICS.
← Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 12:21 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.

Darren Waller

CARDetroit Lions @ Carolina PanthersSun 8:20 PM

Waller on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.75red zone targets per game 1.00receptions per game 3.00

Anytime TD

11 games logged
line0.5

DET · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to TEs0.50.52.0
66th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 8 totalseason 0.5no per-play form for this stat100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 6 totalsupports OVERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone targets allowed to TEs1.31.32.3
74th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 22 totalseason 1.3no per-play form for this stat95th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.23 games (2026) · 7 totalsupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
touchdowns allowed2.82.84.3
77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 47 totalseason 2.8no per-play form for this stat100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 13 totalsupports OVERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Darren Waller Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.750.40
SZN
85th percentile for mostleague avg 0.408 games (2025)vs last 5 · 54th pctseason 0.75 (85th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
red zone targets per game1.000.40
SZN
88th percentile for mostleague avg 0.598 games (2025)vs last 5 · 36th pctseason 1.00 (88th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports UNDER
receptions per game3.002.80
SZN
65th percentile for mostleague avg 2.558 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 3.00 (65th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
0.5line
OVER+310Bally Betat 0.5

Longest Reception

11 games logged
line14.5

DET · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.611.4%2.0
53rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 10 totalvs per completion · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 0.6 (53rd)17 games100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 6 totalneutralT-14/32 NFL defencesneutral1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
30+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.12.3%0.3
48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.217 games (2025) · 2 totalvs per completion · 48th pct · 17 of 32season 0.1 (48th)17 games79th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 1 totalneutralT-15/32 NFL defencesneutralT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.52.3%1.3
66th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 8 totalvs per completion · 65th pct · T-11 of 32season 0.5 (66th)17 games97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 4 totalsupports OVERT-11/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to TEs18.53.643.7
10th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 314 totalvs per reception · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 18.5 (10th)17 games97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 131 totalsupports UNDER29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
air yards faced315.510.0326.7
100th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 5364 totalvs per target · 100th pct · 1 of 32season 315.5 (100th)17 games94th percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 980 totalsupports OVER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Darren Waller Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.002.80
SZN
65th percentile for mostleague avg 2.558 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 3.00 (65th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
yards per catch11.239.71
SZN
67th percentile for mostleague avg 10.118 games (2025)vs last 5 · 48th pctseason 11.23 (67th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
air yards per target11.068.59
SZN
99th percentile for mostleague avg 5.878 games (2025)vs last 5 · 86th pctseason 11.06 (99th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
20+ yard catches per game0.620.20
SZN
80th percentile for mostleague avg 0.318 games (2025)vs last 5 · 46th pctseason 0.62 (80th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
14.5line
OVER-115bet365at 14.5
UNDER-115bet365at 14.5

Receiving Yards

11 games logged
line23.5

DET · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to TEs54.810.6117.0
55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 53.317 games (2025) · 932 totalvs per reception · 74th pct · 9 of 32season 54.8 (55th)17 games100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 52.53 games (2026) · 351 totalneutral15/32 NFL defencessupports OVER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receptions allowed to TEs5.265.7%9.7
42nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 88 totalvs per target · 6th pct · 30 of 32season 5.2 (42nd)17 games100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 29 totalneutral19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receiving yards allowed236.911.8326.3
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 4027 totalvs per reception · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 236.9 (65th)17 games100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 979 totalsupports OVER12/32 NFL defencessupports OVER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to TEs18.53.643.7
10th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 314 totalvs per reception · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 18.5 (10th)17 games97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 131 totalsupports UNDER29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Darren Waller Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.002.80
SZN
65th percentile for mostleague avg 2.558 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 3.00 (65th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
targets per game4.254.20
SZN
67th percentile for mostleague avg 3.518 games (2025)vs last 5 · 67th pctseason 4.25 (67th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
target share16.2%13.0%
SZN
75th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%8 games (2025)vs last 5 · 60th pctseason 16.2% (75th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share47.1%43.4%
SZN
33rd percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%8 games (2025)vs last 5 · 25th pctseason 47.1% (33rd)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
23.5line
OVER-114FanDuelat 23.5
UNDER-109DraftKingsat 23.5

Receptions

11 games logged
line2.5

DET · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to TEs5.265.7%9.7
42nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 88 totalvs per target · 6th pct · 30 of 32season 5.2 (42nd)17 games100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 29 totalneutral19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
targets allowed to TEs7.97.913.0
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.317 games (2025) · 134 totalseason 7.9no per-play form for this stat100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.23 games (2026) · 39 totalsupports OVER11/32 NFL defencessupports OVER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receptions allowed20.120.128.7
35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 342 totalseason 20.1no per-play form for this stat100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 86 totalsupports UNDER21/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Darren Waller Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.002.80
SZN
65th percentile for mostleague avg 2.558 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 3.00 (65th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
targets per game4.254.20
SZN
67th percentile for mostleague avg 3.518 games (2025)vs last 5 · 67th pctseason 4.25 (67th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
target share16.2%13.0%
SZN
75th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%8 games (2025)vs last 5 · 60th pctseason 16.2% (75th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share47.1%43.4%
SZN
33rd percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%8 games (2025)vs last 5 · 25th pctseason 47.1% (33rd)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
2.5line
OVER-125bet365at 2.5
UNDER+106DraftKingsat 2.5

odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing