Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 12:24 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Isaiah Likely
NYGArizona Cardinals @ New York GiantsSun 1:00 PM
Likely on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.18red zone targets per game 0.55receptions per game 2.45
Anytime TD
31 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
ARI · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to TEs0.70.71.0
89th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 11 totalseason 0.7no per-play form for this stat85th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 3 totalsupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone targets allowed to TEs2.12.11.3
95th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 36 totalseason 2.1no per-play form for this stat63rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.23 games (2026) · 4 totalsupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-9/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
touchdowns allowed2.92.93.7
84th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 50 totalseason 2.9no per-play form for this stat92nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 11 totalsupports OVER6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Isaiah Likely Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.180.80
SZN27th percentile for mostleague avg 0.4011 games (2025)vs last 5 · 88th pctseason 0.18 (27th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports OVER
red zone targets per game0.550.80
SZN54th percentile for mostleague avg 0.5911 games (2025)vs last 5 · 77th pctseason 0.55 (54th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
receptions per game2.454.00
SZN52nd percentile for mostleague avg 2.5511 games (2025)vs last 5 · 85th pctseason 2.45 (52nd)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
0.5line
OVER+285Bovadaat 0.5
Longest Reception
31 games loggedline18.5
targets
ARI · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.813.1%0.7
87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 14 totalvs per completion · 71st pct · 10 of 32season 0.8 (87th)17 games73rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
30+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.23.7%0.0
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.217 games (2025) · 4 totalvs per completion · 71st pct · T-9 of 32season 0.2 (81st)17 games35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.31.6%0.7
35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 6 totalvs per completion · 29th pct · 23 of 32season 0.3 (35th)17 games65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDERT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to TEs31.04.929.3
74th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 527 totalvs per reception · 48th pct · 17 of 32season 31.0 (74th)17 games65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 88 totalsupports OVER9/32 NFL defencesneutral12/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
air yards faced243.17.6260.3
55th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 4133 totalvs per target · 35th pct · 21 of 32season 243.1 (55th)17 games53rd percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 781 totalneutral15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-15/32 NFL defencesneutral
Isaiah Likely Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game2.454.00
SZN52nd percentile for mostleague avg 2.5511 games (2025)vs last 5 · 85th pctseason 2.45 (52nd)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
yards per catch10.489.57
SZN58th percentile for mostleague avg 10.1111 games (2025)vs last 5 · 46th pctseason 10.48 (58th)5 gamesneutralneutral
air yards per target7.906.93
SZN83rd percentile for mostleague avg 5.8711 games (2025)vs last 5 · 68th pctseason 7.90 (83rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
20+ yard catches per game0.360.20
SZN67th percentile for mostleague avg 0.3111 games (2025)vs last 5 · 46th pctseason 0.36 (67th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
17.5line
OVER-115bet365at 17.5
UNDER-110Fliffat 17.5
18.5line
OVER-110DraftKingsat 18.5
UNDER-118DraftKingsat 18.5
19.5line
OVER+120bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER+500bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+1000bet365at 39.5
Receiving Yards
31 games loggedline40.5
receptions
ARI · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to TEs68.610.962.3
94th percentile for most allowedleague avg 53.317 games (2025) · 1166 totalvs per reception · 81st pct · 7 of 32season 68.6 (94th)17 games71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 52.53 games (2026) · 187 totalsupports OVER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receptions allowed to TEs6.374.8%5.3
95th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 107 totalvs per target · 76th pct · T-8 of 32season 6.3 (95th)17 games53rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 16 totalsupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-15/32 NFL defencesneutral
receiving yards allowed242.811.0247.0
74th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 4128 totalvs per reception · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 242.8 (74th)17 games71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 741 totalsupports OVER9/32 NFL defencesneutral10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to TEs31.04.929.3
74th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 527 totalvs per reception · 48th pct · 17 of 32season 31.0 (74th)17 games65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 88 totalsupports OVER9/32 NFL defencesneutral12/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Isaiah Likely Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game2.454.00
SZN52nd percentile for mostleague avg 2.5511 games (2025)vs last 5 · 85th pctseason 2.45 (52nd)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
targets per game3.365.60
SZN53rd percentile for mostleague avg 3.5111 games (2025)vs last 5 · 88th pctseason 3.36 (53rd)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
target share13.3%21.9%
SZN60th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%11 games (2025)vs last 5 · 96th pctseason 13.3% (60th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share58.8%64.2%
SZN59th percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%11 games (2025)vs last 5 · 69th pctseason 58.8% (59th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
19.5line
OVER-700bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER-275bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER-114FanDuelat 39.5
UNDER-114FanDuelat 39.5
40.5line
OVER-110theScore Betat 40.5
UNDER-110DraftKingsat 40.5
41.5line
OVER-115bet365at 41.5
UNDER-115bet365at 41.5
49.5line
OVER+135bet365at 49.5
59.5line
OVER+225bet365at 59.5
69.5line
OVER+350bet365at 69.5
79.5line
OVER+550bet365at 79.5
89.5line
OVER+800bet365at 89.5
99.5line
OVER+1000bet365at 99.5
109.5line
OVER+1200bet365at 109.5
Receptions
31 games loggedline3.5
targets
ARI · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to TEs6.374.8%5.3
95th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 107 totalvs per target · 76th pct · T-8 of 32season 6.3 (95th)17 games53rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 16 totalsupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-15/32 NFL defencesneutral
targets allowed to TEs8.48.46.0
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.317 games (2025) · 143 totalseason 8.4no per-play form for this stat31st percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.23 games (2026) · 18 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-21/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed22.122.117.0
73rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 375 totalseason 22.1no per-play form for this stat3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 51 totalsupports OVERT-9/32 NFL defencessupports OVER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Isaiah Likely Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game2.454.00
SZN52nd percentile for mostleague avg 2.5511 games (2025)vs last 5 · 85th pctseason 2.45 (52nd)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
targets per game3.365.60
SZN53rd percentile for mostleague avg 3.5111 games (2025)vs last 5 · 88th pctseason 3.36 (53rd)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
target share13.3%21.9%
SZN60th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%11 games (2025)vs last 5 · 96th pctseason 13.3% (60th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share58.8%64.2%
SZN59th percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%11 games (2025)vs last 5 · 69th pctseason 58.8% (59th)5 gamesneutralsupports OVER
1.5line
OVER-1799bet365at 1.5
2.5line
OVER-450bet365at 2.5
3.5line
OVER-160bet365at 3.5
UNDER+130theScore Betat 3.5
4.5line
OVER+135bet365at 4.5
UNDER-162DraftKingsat 4.5
5.5line
OVER+275bet365at 5.5
6.5line
OVER+550bet365at 6.5
7.5line
OVER+850bet365at 7.5
8.5line
OVER+1200bet365at 8.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing