Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 2:26 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Kaelon Black
SFDenver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ersSun 4:25 PM
Anytime TD
3 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
DEN · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to RBs0.80.81.0
42nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.917 games (2025) · 14 totalseason 0.8no per-play form for this stat69th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.83 games (2026) · 3 totalneutralT-17/32 NFL defencesseason onlyT-9/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone carries allowed to RBs2.42.43.0
2nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.817 games (2025) · 40 totalseason 2.4no per-play form for this stat37th percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.93 games (2026) · 9 totalsupports UNDERT-31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
touchdowns allowed1.71.72.3
5th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 29 totalseason 1.7no per-play form for this stat50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 7 totalsupports UNDERT-30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-15/32 NFL defencesneutral
0.5line
OVER+325Fanaticsat 0.5
Longest Reception
3 games loggedline0.5
targets
DEN · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to RBs0.28.2%0.7
52nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.317 games (2025) · 4 totalvs per completion · 79th pct · T-7 of 32season 0.2 (52nd)17 games92nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 2 totalneutralT-13/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
30+ yard receptions allowed to RBs0.14.1%0.0
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.117 games (2025) · 2 totalvs per completion · 77th pct · 8 of 32season 0.1 (65th)17 games40th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.13 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.62.9%1.0
89th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 10 totalvs per completion · 90th pct · 4 of 32season 0.6 (89th)17 games87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 3 totalsupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to RBs22.67.837.3
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 34.317 games (2025) · 384 totalvs per reception · 52nd pct · 16 of 32season 22.6 (3rd)17 games71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 32.63 games (2026) · 112 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencesneutral10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
air yards faced286.68.8308.3
94th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 4873 totalvs per target · 95th pct · T-2 of 32season 286.6 (94th)17 games87th percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 925 totalsupports OVER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER5/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
0.5line
OVER+135bet365at 0.5
UNDER-170bet365at 0.5
19.5line
OVER+1100bet365at 19.5
Longest Rush
3 games loggedline9.5
carries
DEN · what this defence allows
10+ yard rushes allowed to RBs1.26.6%2.3
6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.217 games (2025) · 21 totalvs per carry · 6th pct · 30 of 32season 1.2 (6th)17 games63rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.03 games (2026) · 7 totalsupports UNDER30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
20+ yard rushes allowed to RBs0.21.3%1.0
8th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.517 games (2025) · 4 totalvs per carry · 16th pct · T-26 of 32season 0.2 (8th)17 games94th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.33 games (2026) · 3 totalsupports UNDERT-27/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-1/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards per carry allowed to RBs3.93.95.3
6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.317 games (2025)vs per carry · 6th pct · 30 of 32season 3.9 (6th)17 games97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.13 games (2026)supports UNDER30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
RB carries stuffed at the line3.418.0%3.3
29th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 3.817 games (2025) · 57 totalvs per carry · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 3.4 (29th)17 games37th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 3.83 games (2026) · 10 totalsupports OVER23/32 NFL defencesneutralT-19/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
8.5line
OVER-125bet365at 8.5
UNDER-105bet365at 8.5
9.5line
OVER+105bet365at 9.5
UNDER-110DraftKingsat 9.5
19.5line
OVER+550bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER+900bet365at 29.5
Receiving Yards
3 games loggedline0.5
receptions
DEN · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to RBs21.67.543.7
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 31.617 games (2025) · 367 totalvs per reception · 65th pct · 12 of 32season 21.6 (3rd)17 games92nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 30.43 games (2026) · 131 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receptions allowed to RBs2.966.2%5.3
0th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.317 games (2025) · 49 totalvs per target · 0th pct · 32 of 32season 2.9 (0th)17 games82nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.43 games (2026) · 16 totalsupports UNDER32/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receiving yards allowed212.110.5254.3
32nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 3606 totalvs per reception · 29th pct · 23 of 32season 212.1 (32nd)17 games74th percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 763 totalsupports UNDER22/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER9/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to RBs22.67.837.3
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 34.317 games (2025) · 384 totalvs per reception · 52nd pct · 16 of 32season 22.6 (3rd)17 games71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 32.63 games (2026) · 112 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencesneutral10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
0.5line
OVER+135bet365at 0.5
UNDER-170bet365at 0.5
19.5line
OVER+800bet365at 19.5
Receptions
3 games loggedline0.5
targets
DEN · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to RBs2.966.2%5.3
0th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.317 games (2025) · 49 totalvs per target · 0th pct · 32 of 32season 2.9 (0th)17 games82nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.43 games (2026) · 16 totalsupports UNDER32/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
targets allowed to RBs4.34.37.7
8th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.517 games (2025) · 74 totalseason 4.3no per-play form for this stat94th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.53 games (2026) · 23 totalsupports UNDERT-29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receptions allowed20.220.220.7
39th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 343 totalseason 20.2no per-play form for this stat56th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 62 totalsupports UNDER20/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-14/32 NFL defencesneutral
0.5line
OVER+115bet365at 0.5
UNDER-145bet365at 0.5
1.5line
OVER+550bet365at 1.5
Rush + Rec Yards
3 games loggedline26.5
touches
DEN · what this defence allows
rushing yards allowed to RBs71.83.9129.7
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 94.917 games (2025) · 1220 totalvs per carry · 6th pct · 30 of 32season 71.8 (3rd)17 games97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 91.63 games (2026) · 389 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receiving yards allowed to RBs21.67.543.7
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 31.617 games (2025) · 367 totalvs per reception · 65th pct · 12 of 32season 21.6 (3rd)17 games92nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 30.43 games (2026) · 131 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
rushing yards allowed91.13.9143.7
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 116.917 games (2025) · 1548 totalvs per carry · 6th pct · 30 of 32season 91.1 (3rd)17 games94th percentile for most allowedleague avg 111.93 games (2026) · 431 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to RBs22.67.837.3
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 34.317 games (2025) · 384 totalvs per reception · 52nd pct · 16 of 32season 22.6 (3rd)17 games71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 32.63 games (2026) · 112 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencesneutral10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
26.5line
OVER-115bet365at 26.5
UNDER-115bet365at 26.5
49.5line
OVER+400bet365at 49.5
74.5line
OVER+1000bet365at 74.5
Rushing Attempts
3 games loggedline6.5
snap share
DEN · what this defence allows
carries allowed to RBs18.679.0%24.7
6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 21.917 games (2025) · 316 totalvs share of carries · 16th pct · 27 of 32season 18.6 (6th)17 games77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 22.23 games (2026) · 74 totalsupports UNDER30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
runs faced21.234.1%25.7
10th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.117 games (2025) · 360 totalvs per play · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 21.2 (10th)17 games69th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.03 games (2026) · 77 totalsupports UNDER29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
rushing yards allowed to RBs71.83.9129.7
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 94.917 games (2025) · 1220 totalvs per carry · 6th pct · 30 of 32season 71.8 (3rd)17 games97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 91.63 games (2026) · 389 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
4.5line
OVER-450bet365at 4.5
6.5line
OVER+115bet365at 6.5
UNDER-145bet365at 6.5
9.5line
OVER+450bet365at 9.5
Rushing Yards
3 games loggedline23.5
carries
DEN · what this defence allows
rushing yards allowed to RBs71.83.9129.7
3rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 94.917 games (2025) · 1220 totalvs per carry · 6th pct · 30 of 32season 71.8 (3rd)17 games97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 91.63 games (2026) · 389 totalsupports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
carries allowed to RBs18.679.0%24.7
6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 21.917 games (2025) · 316 totalvs share of carries · 16th pct · 27 of 32season 18.6 (6th)17 games77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 22.23 games (2026) · 74 totalsupports UNDER30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
runs faced21.234.1%25.7
10th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.117 games (2025) · 360 totalvs per play · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 21.2 (10th)17 games69th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.03 games (2026) · 77 totalsupports UNDER29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
RB carries stuffed at the line3.418.0%3.3
29th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 3.817 games (2025) · 57 totalvs per carry · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 3.4 (29th)17 games37th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 3.83 games (2026) · 10 totalsupports OVER23/32 NFL defencesneutralT-19/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
19.5line
OVER-165bet365at 19.5
22.5line
OVER-113DraftKingsat 22.5
UNDER-111DraftKingsat 22.5
23.5line
OVER-114BetOnline.agat 23.5
UNDER-113betPARXat 23.5
29.5line
OVER+155bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+350bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER+600bet365at 49.5
59.5line
OVER+850bet365at 59.5
69.5line
OVER+1100bet365at 69.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing