Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 2:26 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.

Luke Farrell

SFDenver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ersSun 4:25 PM

Farrell on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.33red zone targets per game 0.44receptions per game 1.22

Anytime TD

23 games logged

line0.5

DEN · what this defence allows

TDs allowed to TEs0.30.30.3

39th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 6 totalseason 0.3no per-play form for this stat39th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports UNDERT-15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-16/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER

red zone targets allowed to TEs1.11.11.3

32nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 18 totalseason 1.1no per-play form for this stat63rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.23 games (2026) · 4 totalsupports UNDERT-20/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-9/32 NFL defencessupports OVER

touchdowns allowed1.71.72.3

5th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 29 totalseason 1.7no per-play form for this stat50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 7 totalsupports UNDERT-30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-15/32 NFL defencesneutral

Luke Farrell Breakdown · his own data

red zone touches per game0.330.20

SZN

48th percentile for mostleague avg 0.409 games (2025)vs last 5 · 34th pctseason 0.33 (48th)5 gamesneutralsupports UNDER

red zone targets per game0.440.40

SZN

40th percentile for mostleague avg 0.599 games (2025)vs last 5 · 36th pctseason 0.44 (40th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER

receptions per game1.221.00

SZN

17th percentile for mostleague avg 2.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 9th pctseason 1.22 (17th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER

0.5line

OVER+1500Bally Betat 0.5

odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing