Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 11:33 AM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Michael Penix Jr.
ATLAtlanta Falcons @ New Orleans SaintsMon 8:15 PM
Jr. on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.33carries per game 2.33
Anytime TD
15 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
NO · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to QBs0.10.10.0
10th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.217 games (2025) · 1 totalseason 0.1no per-play form for this stat27th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports UNDERT-26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
red zone carries allowed to QBs0.50.50.0
6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.817 games (2025) · 8 totalseason 0.5no per-play form for this stat5th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.93 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports UNDER30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
touchdowns allowed2.22.23.3
29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 37 totalseason 2.2no per-play form for this stat79th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 10 totalsupports UNDER23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.330.20
SZN21st percentile for mostleague avg 0.729 games (2025)vs last 5 · 15th pctseason 0.33 (21st)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
carries per game2.331.60
SZN31st percentile for mostleague avg 3.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 17th pctseason 2.33 (31st)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER+950BetMGMat 0.5
Completions
15 games loggedline20.5
pass attempts
NO · what this defence allows
completions allowed18.463.5%23.0
16th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 312 totalvs per attempt · 39th pct · 20 of 32season 18.4 (16th)17 games79th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 69 totalsupports UNDER27/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
dropbacks faced33.254.9%39.0
13th percentile for most facedleague avg 36.517 games (2025) · 565 totalvs per play · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 33.2 (13th)17 games77th percentile for most facedleague avg 36.73 games (2026) · 117 totalsupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
sacks per dropback8.0%8.0%6.0%
87th percentile for highest sack rateleague avg 6.5%17 games (2025)vs per dropback · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 8.0% (87th)17 games39th percentile for highest sack rateleague avg 5.9%3 games (2026)supports UNDER5/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER20/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
pass attempts per game30.6728.80
SZN64th percentile for mostleague avg 28.289 games (2025)vs last 5 · 45th pctseason 30.67 (64th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
passing yards per game220.22214.00
SZN60th percentile for mostleague avg 198.109 games (2025)vs last 5 · 52nd pctseason 220.22 (60th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
19.5line
OVER-130bet365at 19.5
UNDER+100bet365at 19.5
20.5line
OVER-106betPARXat 20.5
UNDER-115BetOnline.agat 20.5
24.5line
OVER+350bet365at 24.5
29.5line
OVER+1100bet365at 29.5
Interceptions
15 games loggedline0.5
pass attempts
NO · what this defence allows
interceptions forced0.62.0%0.3
39th percentile for most forcedleague avg 0.717 games (2025) · 10 totalvs per attempt · 47th pct · T-17 of 32season 0.6 (39th)17 games24th percentile for most forcedleague avg 0.73 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports UNDERT-18/32 NFL defencesneutralT-21/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
completions allowed18.463.5%23.0
16th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 312 totalvs per attempt · 39th pct · 20 of 32season 18.4 (16th)17 games79th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 69 totalsupports UNDER27/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
passing yards allowed196.26.8229.7
13th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 3336 totalvs per attempt · 39th pct · 20 of 32season 196.2 (13th)17 games52nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 689 totalsupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER16/32 NFL defencesneutral
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
pass attempts per game30.6728.80
SZN64th percentile for mostleague avg 28.289 games (2025)vs last 5 · 45th pctseason 30.67 (64th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
completions per game18.4417.20
SZN36th percentile for mostleague avg 18.169 games (2025)vs last 5 · 31st pctseason 18.44 (36th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER+100bet365at 0.5
UNDER-114betPARXat 0.5
1.5line
OVER+500bet365at 1.5
2.5line
OVER+1200bet365at 2.5
Longest Completion
15 games loggedline34.5
pass attempts
NO · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed2.614.1%2.0
31st percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.917 games (2025) · 44 totalvs per completion · 56th pct · T-14 of 32season 2.6 (31st)17 games27th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.93 games (2026) · 6 totalsupports UNDERT-22/32 NFL defencesneutralT-23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
30+ yard receptions allowed0.95.1%0.3
35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.017 games (2025) · 16 totalvs per completion · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 0.9 (35th)17 games10th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.13 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports UNDERT-20/32 NFL defencesneutralT-26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
40+ yard receptions allowed0.42.2%0.3
53rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 7 totalvs per completion · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 0.4 (53rd)17 games29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 1 totalneutralT-13/32 NFL defencesneutralT-18/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
yards after catch allowed94.95.287.7
23rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 106.017 games (2025) · 1614 totalvs per reception · 58th pct · 14 of 32season 94.9 (23rd)17 games6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 104.73 games (2026) · 263 totalsupports UNDER25/32 NFL defencesneutral30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
air yards faced219.58.1260.3
29th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 3732 totalvs per target · 77th pct · 8 of 32season 219.5 (29th)17 games53rd percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 781 totalsupports UNDER23/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-15/32 NFL defencesneutral
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
pass attempts per game30.6728.80
SZN64th percentile for mostleague avg 28.289 games (2025)vs last 5 · 45th pctseason 30.67 (64th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
completions per game18.4417.20
SZN36th percentile for mostleague avg 18.169 games (2025)vs last 5 · 31st pctseason 18.44 (36th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
19.5line
OVER-3300bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER-230bet365at 29.5
34.5line
OVER-115bet365at 34.5
UNDER-115bet365at 34.5
39.5line
OVER+145bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER+350bet365at 49.5
59.5line
OVER+700bet365at 59.5
Longest Rush
15 games loggedline4.5
carries
NO · what this defence allows
10+ yard rushes allowed to QBs0.826.4%0.7
87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 14 totalvs per carry · 90th pct · 4 of 32season 0.8 (87th)17 games61st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports OVER5/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
20+ yard rushes allowed (all positions)0.72.2%0.7
60th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 11 totalvs per carry · 50th pct · T-16 of 32season 0.7 (60th)17 games69th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports OVERT-13/32 NFL defencesneutralT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards per carry allowed to QBs5.85.85.9
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.617 games (2025)vs per carry · 68th pct · 11 of 32season 5.8 (68th)17 games61st percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.73 games (2026)supports OVER11/32 NFL defencessupports OVER13/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
runs stuffed at the line4.918.1%3.7
87th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 4.317 games (2025) · 84 totalvs per carry · 45th pct · 18 of 32season 4.9 (87th)17 games35th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 4.23 games (2026) · 11 totalsupports UNDER5/32 NFL defencesneutralT-20/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
carries per game2.331.60
SZN31st percentile for mostleague avg 3.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 17th pctseason 2.33 (31st)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
yards per carry3.443.90
SZN29th percentile for mostleague avg 4.279 games (2025)vs last 5 · 40th pctseason 3.44 (29th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
10+ yard runs per game0.220.20
SZN26th percentile for mostleague avg 0.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 25th pctseason 0.22 (26th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
snap share93.2%92.4%
SZN50th percentile for mostleague avg 87.6%9 games (2025)vs last 5 · 50th pctseason 93.2% (50th)5 gamesneutralneutral
4.5line
OVER-125bet365at 4.5
UNDER-105bet365at 4.5
9.5line
OVER+225bet365at 9.5
19.5line
OVER+850bet365at 19.5
Passing Attempts
15 games loggedline30.5
completions
NO · what this defence allows
pass attempts faced28.928.934.3
10th percentile for most facedleague avg 32.117 games (2025) · 491 totalseason 28.9no per-play form for this stat73rd percentile for most facedleague avg 32.53 games (2026) · 103 totalsupports UNDER29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-9/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
pass rate faced54.9%54.9%61.3%
3rd percentile for most passed againstleague avg 60.2%17 games (2025)season 54.9%no per-play form for this stat58th percentile for most passed againstleague avg 60.4%3 games (2026)supports UNDER31/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-13/32 NFL defencesneutral
pass rate over expected faced-5.4%-5.4%1.3%
13th percentile for most passed againstleague avg -2.2%17 games (2025)season -5.4%no per-play form for this stat77th percentile for most passed againstleague avg -2.0%3 games (2026)supports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
plays faced60.560.563.7
45th percentile for most facedleague avg 60.617 games (2025) · 1029 totalseason 60.5no per-play form for this stat77th percentile for most facedleague avg 60.73 games (2026) · 191 totalneutral18/32 NFL defencesseason only8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
sacks per dropback8.0%8.0%6.0%
87th percentile for highest sack rateleague avg 6.5%17 games (2025)season 8.0%no per-play form for this stat39th percentile for highest sack rateleague avg 5.9%3 games (2026)supports UNDER5/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER20/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
completions per game18.4417.20
SZN36th percentile for mostleague avg 18.169 games (2025)vs last 5 · 31st pctseason 18.44 (36th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
passing yards per game220.22214.00
SZN60th percentile for mostleague avg 198.109 games (2025)vs last 5 · 52nd pctseason 220.22 (60th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
19.5line
OVER-5000bet365at 19.5
24.5line
OVER-700bet365at 24.5
29.5line
OVER-175bet365at 29.5
30.5line
OVER-109betPARXat 30.5
UNDER+100bet365at 30.5
34.5line
OVER+190bet365at 34.5
39.5line
OVER+550bet365at 39.5
44.5line
OVER+1200bet365at 44.5
Passing Touchdowns
15 games loggedline1.5
pass attempts
NO · what this defence allows
passing TDs allowed1.55.1%2.0
48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.517 games (2025) · 25 totalvs per attempt · 65th pct · T-11 of 32season 1.5 (48th)17 games74th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.63 games (2026) · 6 totalneutralT-15/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone trips allowed2.853.2%4.3
15th percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.217 games (2025) · 47 totalvs TD rate · 29th pct · 23 of 32season 2.8 (15th)17 games92nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 3.33 games (2026) · 13 totalsupports UNDERT-26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
passing yards allowed196.26.8229.7
13th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 3336 totalvs per attempt · 39th pct · 20 of 32season 196.2 (13th)17 games52nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 689 totalsupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER16/32 NFL defencesneutral
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
pass attempts per game30.6728.80
SZN64th percentile for mostleague avg 28.289 games (2025)vs last 5 · 45th pctseason 30.67 (64th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
completions per game18.4417.20
SZN36th percentile for mostleague avg 18.169 games (2025)vs last 5 · 31st pctseason 18.44 (36th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER-700bet365at 0.5
1.5line
OVER+134DraftKingsat 1.5
UNDER-125bet365at 1.5
2.5line
OVER+400bet365at 2.5
3.5line
OVER+1000bet365at 3.5
Passing Yards
15 games loggedline224.5
completions
NO · what this defence allows
passing yards allowed196.26.8229.7
13th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 3336 totalvs per attempt · 39th pct · 20 of 32season 196.2 (13th)17 games52nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 689 totalsupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER16/32 NFL defencesneutral
dropbacks faced33.254.9%39.0
13th percentile for most facedleague avg 36.517 games (2025) · 565 totalvs per play · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 33.2 (13th)17 games77th percentile for most facedleague avg 36.73 games (2026) · 117 totalsupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
sacks per dropback8.0%8.0%6.0%
87th percentile for highest sack rateleague avg 6.5%17 games (2025)vs per dropback · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 8.0% (87th)17 games39th percentile for highest sack rateleague avg 5.9%3 games (2026)supports UNDER5/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER20/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
pass attempts per game30.6728.80
SZN64th percentile for mostleague avg 28.289 games (2025)vs last 5 · 45th pctseason 30.67 (64th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
completions per game18.4417.20
SZN36th percentile for mostleague avg 18.169 games (2025)vs last 5 · 31st pctseason 18.44 (36th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
149.5line
OVER-1401bet365at 149.5
174.5line
OVER-500bet365at 174.5
199.5line
OVER-240bet365at 199.5
222.5line
OVER-115bet365at 222.5
UNDER-115bet365at 222.5
224.5line
OVER-113DraftKingsat 224.5
UNDER-110theScore Betat 224.5
249.5line
OVER+160bet365at 249.5
274.5line
OVER+300bet365at 274.5
299.5line
OVER+550bet365at 299.5
324.5line
OVER+850bet365at 324.5
349.5line
OVER+1200bet365at 349.5
Rushing Yards
15 games loggedline5.5
carries
NO · what this defence allows
rushing yards allowed to QBs16.93.913.0
42nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 18.017 games (2025) · 288 totalvs per carry · 29th pct · 23 of 32season 16.9 (42nd)17 games40th percentile for most allowedleague avg 17.73 games (2026) · 39 totalneutral19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
carries allowed to QBs4.314.3%3.0
58th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.217 games (2025) · 74 totalvs share of carries · 32nd pct · 22 of 32season 4.3 (58th)17 games26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 4.03 games (2026) · 9 totalneutral14/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-22/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
runs faced27.345.1%24.7
94th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.117 games (2025) · 464 totalvs per play · 97th pct · 2 of 32season 27.3 (94th)17 games56th percentile for most run againstleague avg 24.03 games (2026) · 74 totalsupports OVER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-14/32 NFL defencesneutral
runs stuffed at the line4.918.1%3.7
87th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 4.317 games (2025) · 84 totalvs per carry · 45th pct · 18 of 32season 4.9 (87th)17 games35th percentile for most stuffsleague avg 4.23 games (2026) · 11 totalsupports UNDER5/32 NFL defencesneutralT-20/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Michael Penix Jr. Breakdown · his own data
carries per game2.331.60
SZN31st percentile for mostleague avg 3.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 17th pctseason 2.33 (31st)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
yards per carry3.443.90
SZN29th percentile for mostleague avg 4.279 games (2025)vs last 5 · 40th pctseason 3.44 (29th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
5.5line
OVER-110bet365at 5.5
UNDER-110theScore Betat 5.5
19.5line
OVER+500bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER+850bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+1200bet365at 39.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing