Base market snapshot from 10:08 AM EDT on Sun, Oct 4. bet365 refreshed separately at 10:59 AM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Nate Adkins
DENDenver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ersSun 4:25 PM
Adkins on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.17red zone targets per game 0.33receptions per game 1.00
Anytime TD
21 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
SF · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to TEs0.60.60.0
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 10 totalseason 0.6no per-play form for this stat11th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-25/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
red zone targets allowed to TEs1.41.41.3
82nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 24 totalseason 1.4no per-play form for this stat63rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.23 games (2026) · 4 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-9/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
touchdowns allowed2.52.51.7
58th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 42 totalseason 2.5no per-play form for this stat15th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 5 totalneutral14/32 NFL defencesseason onlyT-25/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Nate Adkins Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.170.40
SZN26th percentile for mostleague avg 0.406 games (2025)vs last 5 · 54th pctseason 0.17 (26th)5 gamessupports UNDERneutral
red zone targets per game0.330.80
SZN28th percentile for mostleague avg 0.596 games (2025)vs last 5 · 77th pctseason 0.33 (28th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports OVER
receptions per game1.001.20
SZN9th percentile for mostleague avg 2.556 games (2025)vs last 5 · 17th pctseason 1.00 (9th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER+1200Bally Betat 0.5
Longest Reception
21 games loggedline0.5
targets
SF · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.59.1%0.0
39th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 9 totalvs per completion · 23rd pct · 25 of 32season 0.5 (39th)17 games15th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports UNDERT-18/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
30+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.35.1%0.0
90th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.217 games (2025) · 5 totalvs per completion · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 0.3 (90th)17 games35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports OVERT-3/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.31.3%0.7
19th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 5 totalvs per completion · 16th pct · T-26 of 32season 0.3 (19th)17 games61st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDERT-24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to TEs27.74.822.7
55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 471 totalvs per reception · 39th pct · 20 of 32season 27.7 (55th)17 games29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 26.93 games (2026) · 68 totalneutral15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
air yards faced255.97.7250.0
71st percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 4351 totalvs per target · 45th pct · 18 of 32season 255.9 (71st)17 games48th percentile for most facedleague avg 249.83 games (2026) · 750 totalsupports OVER10/32 NFL defencesneutral17/32 NFL defencesneutral
Nate Adkins Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game1.001.20
SZN9th percentile for mostleague avg 2.556 games (2025)vs last 5 · 17th pctseason 1.00 (9th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
yards per catch8.008.53
SZN18th percentile for mostleague avg 10.113 games (2025)vs last 5 · 27th pctseason 8.00 (18th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
air yards per target3.975.27
SZN20th percentile for mostleague avg 5.876 games (2025)vs last 5 · 42nd pctseason 3.97 (20th)5 gamessupports UNDERneutral
20+ yard catches per game0.000.00
SZN6th percentile for mostleague avg 0.316 games (2025)vs last 5 · 6th pctseason 0.00 (6th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER-115bet365at 0.5
UNDER-115bet365at 0.5
19.5line
OVER+900bet365at 19.5
Receiving Yards
21 games loggedline0.5
receptions
SF · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to TEs57.59.950.7
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 53.317 games (2025) · 977 totalvs per reception · 45th pct · 18 of 32season 57.5 (68th)17 games50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 52.23 games (2026) · 152 totalsupports OVER11/32 NFL defencesneutralT-16/32 NFL defencesneutral
receptions allowed to TEs5.867.3%6.7
76th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 99 totalvs per target · 16th pct · 27 of 32season 5.8 (76th)17 games87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 20 totalsupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receiving yards allowed241.810.3215.0
71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 4110 totalvs per reception · 19th pct · 26 of 32season 241.8 (71st)17 games29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 232.23 games (2026) · 645 totalsupports OVER10/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
yards after catch allowed to TEs27.74.822.7
55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 471 totalvs per reception · 39th pct · 20 of 32season 27.7 (55th)17 games29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 26.93 games (2026) · 68 totalneutral15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Nate Adkins Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game1.001.20
SZN9th percentile for mostleague avg 2.556 games (2025)vs last 5 · 17th pctseason 1.00 (9th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
targets per game1.832.00
SZN22nd percentile for mostleague avg 3.516 games (2025)vs last 5 · 28th pctseason 1.83 (22nd)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
target share4.9%5.6%
SZN9th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%6 games (2025)vs last 5 · 21st pctseason 4.9% (9th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
snap share30.7%27.8%
SZN4th percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%6 games (2025)vs last 5 · 1st pctseason 30.7% (4th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER-115bet365at 0.5
UNDER-115bet365at 0.5
19.5line
OVER+700bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER+1150bet365at 29.5
Receptions
21 games loggedline0.5
targets
SF · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to TEs5.867.3%6.7
76th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 99 totalvs per target · 16th pct · 27 of 32season 5.8 (76th)17 games87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 20 totalsupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
targets allowed to TEs8.78.78.3
94th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.317 games (2025) · 147 totalseason 8.7no per-play form for this stat79th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.23 games (2026) · 25 totalsupports OVER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receptions allowed23.423.423.0
97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 398 totalseason 23.4no per-play form for this stat79th percentile for most allowedleague avg 21.03 games (2026) · 69 totalsupports OVER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Nate Adkins Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game1.001.20
SZN9th percentile for mostleague avg 2.556 games (2025)vs last 5 · 17th pctseason 1.00 (9th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
targets per game1.832.00
SZN22nd percentile for mostleague avg 3.516 games (2025)vs last 5 · 28th pctseason 1.83 (22nd)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
target share4.9%5.6%
SZN9th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%6 games (2025)vs last 5 · 21st pctseason 4.9% (9th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
snap share30.7%27.8%
SZN4th percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%6 games (2025)vs last 5 · 1st pctseason 30.7% (4th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
0.5line
OVER-115bet365at 0.5
UNDER-115bet365at 0.5
1.5line
OVER+450bet365at 1.5
2.5line
OVER+1100bet365at 2.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:08 AM EDT on Sun, Oct 4 · not live pricing