Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 12:21 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Sam LaPorta
DETDetroit Lions @ Carolina PanthersSun 8:20 PM
LaPorta on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.44red zone targets per game 0.67receptions per game 4.44
Anytime TD
29 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
CAR · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to TEs0.40.41.0
58th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 7 totalseason 0.4no per-play form for this stat85th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 3 totalneutral14/32 NFL defencesseason onlyT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone targets allowed to TEs1.41.41.0
82nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 24 totalseason 1.4no per-play form for this stat37th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.23 games (2026) · 3 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-17/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
touchdowns allowed2.42.43.3
48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 40 totalseason 2.4no per-play form for this stat79th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 10 totalneutralT-16/32 NFL defencesseason onlyT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
Sam LaPorta Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.440.80
SZN63rd percentile for mostleague avg 0.409 games (2025)vs last 5 · 88th pctseason 0.44 (63rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
red zone targets per game0.671.20
SZN60th percentile for mostleague avg 0.599 games (2025)vs last 5 · 91st pctseason 0.67 (60th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
receptions per game4.445.00
SZN86th percentile for mostleague avg 2.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 95th pctseason 4.44 (86th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
0.5line
OVER+195BetMGMat 0.5
Longest Reception
29 games loggedline18.5
targets
CAR · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.816.1%0.3
87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 14 totalvs per completion · 94th pct · 3 of 32season 0.8 (87th)17 games50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports OVERT-4/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-12/32 NFL defencesneutral
30+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.35.7%0.0
90th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.217 games (2025) · 5 totalvs per completion · 94th pct · 3 of 32season 0.3 (90th)17 games35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports OVERT-3/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-10/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.52.7%0.3
77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 9 totalvs per completion · 87th pct · 5 of 32season 0.5 (77th)17 games29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-18/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
yards after catch allowed to TEs30.25.917.7
71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 513 totalvs per reception · 90th pct · 4 of 32season 30.2 (71st)17 games19th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 53 totalsupports OVER10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
air yards faced222.37.8197.0
32nd percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 3779 totalvs per target · 48th pct · 17 of 32season 222.3 (32nd)17 games29th percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 591 totalsupports UNDER22/32 NFL defencesneutral23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Sam LaPorta Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game4.445.00
SZN86th percentile for mostleague avg 2.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 95th pctseason 4.44 (86th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
yards per catch11.5811.94
SZN72nd percentile for mostleague avg 10.119 games (2025)vs last 5 · 79th pctseason 11.58 (72nd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
air yards per target5.644.92
SZN50th percentile for mostleague avg 5.879 games (2025)vs last 5 · 37th pctseason 5.64 (50th)5 gamesneutralsupports UNDER
20+ yard catches per game0.670.40
SZN90th percentile for mostleague avg 0.319 games (2025)vs last 5 · 71st pctseason 0.67 (90th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
18.5line
OVER-109DraftKingsat 18.5
UNDER-110Hard Rock Betat 18.5
29.5line
OVER+450bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+850bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER+1150bet365at 49.5
Receiving Yards
29 games loggedline48.5
receptions
CAR · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to TEs59.911.740.3
77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 53.317 games (2025) · 1019 totalvs per reception · 94th pct · 3 of 32season 59.9 (77th)17 games32nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 52.53 games (2026) · 121 totalsupports OVER8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER22/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed to TEs5.175.7%4.0
37th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 87 totalvs per target · 81st pct · 7 of 32season 5.1 (37th)17 games24th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 12 totalsupports UNDERT-20/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receiving yards allowed215.110.9186.0
42nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 3657 totalvs per reception · 48th pct · 17 of 32season 215.1 (42nd)17 games13th percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 558 totalneutral19/32 NFL defencesneutral28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
yards after catch allowed to TEs30.25.917.7
71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 513 totalvs per reception · 90th pct · 4 of 32season 30.2 (71st)17 games19th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 53 totalsupports OVER10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Sam LaPorta Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game4.445.00
SZN86th percentile for mostleague avg 2.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 95th pctseason 4.44 (86th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
targets per game5.446.40
SZN83rd percentile for mostleague avg 3.519 games (2025)vs last 5 · 94th pctseason 5.44 (83rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
target share18.5%17.9%
SZN86th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%9 games (2025)vs last 5 · 85th pctseason 18.5% (86th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share90.7%89.4%
SZN98th percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%9 games (2025)vs last 5 · 96th pctseason 90.7% (98th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
19.5line
OVER-1200bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER-450bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER-210bet365at 39.5
47.5line
OVER-115DraftKingsat 47.5
UNDER-109DraftKingsat 47.5
48.5line
OVER-114BetOnline.agat 48.5
UNDER-114BetOnline.agat 48.5
49.5line
OVER-115bet365at 49.5
UNDER-113betPARXat 49.5
59.5line
OVER+150bet365at 59.5
69.5line
OVER+250bet365at 69.5
79.5line
OVER+400bet365at 79.5
89.5line
OVER+550bet365at 89.5
99.5line
OVER+800bet365at 99.5
109.5line
OVER+900bet365at 109.5
119.5line
OVER+1200bet365at 119.5
Receptions
29 games loggedline4.5
targets
CAR · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to TEs5.175.7%4.0
37th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 87 totalvs per target · 81st pct · 7 of 32season 5.1 (37th)17 games24th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 12 totalsupports UNDERT-20/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
targets allowed to TEs6.86.87.3
31st percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.317 games (2025) · 115 totalseason 6.8no per-play form for this stat50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.23 games (2026) · 22 totalsupports UNDERT-22/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-16/32 NFL defencesneutral
receptions allowed19.819.818.7
27th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 336 totalseason 19.8no per-play form for this stat16th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 56 totalsupports UNDERT-23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Sam LaPorta Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game4.445.00
SZN86th percentile for mostleague avg 2.559 games (2025)vs last 5 · 95th pctseason 4.44 (86th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
targets per game5.446.40
SZN83rd percentile for mostleague avg 3.519 games (2025)vs last 5 · 94th pctseason 5.44 (83rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
target share18.5%17.9%
SZN86th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%9 games (2025)vs last 5 · 85th pctseason 18.5% (86th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share90.7%89.4%
SZN98th percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%9 games (2025)vs last 5 · 96th pctseason 90.7% (98th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
1.5line
OVER-4000bet365at 1.5
2.5line
OVER-800bet365at 2.5
3.5line
OVER-275bet365at 3.5
4.5line
OVER-104betPARXat 4.5
UNDER-113DraftKingsat 4.5
5.5line
OVER+160bet365at 5.5
6.5line
OVER+320bet365at 6.5
7.5line
OVER+600bet365at 7.5
8.5line
OVER+850bet365at 8.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing