STEEZANOMICS.
← Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 4:55 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.

T.J. Hockenson

MINMiami Dolphins @ Minnesota VikingsSun 4:05 PM

Hockenson on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.60red zone targets per game 0.73receptions per game 3.40

Anytime TD

29 games logged
line0.5

MIA · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to TEs0.60.60.7
81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 10 totalseason 0.6no per-play form for this stat66th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-8/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone targets allowed to TEs1.21.21.7
48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 20 totalseason 1.2no per-play form for this stat81st percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.23 games (2026) · 5 totalneutralT-16/32 NFL defencesseason onlyT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
touchdowns allowed2.82.83.7
77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 47 totalseason 2.8no per-play form for this stat92nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 11 totalsupports OVERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
T.J. Hockenson Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.600.20
SZN
78th percentile for mostleague avg 0.4015 games (2025)vs last 5 · 34th pctseason 0.60 (78th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports UNDER
red zone targets per game0.730.60
SZN
68th percentile for mostleague avg 0.5915 games (2025)vs last 5 · 57th pctseason 0.73 (68th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
receptions per game3.402.80
SZN
76th percentile for mostleague avg 2.5515 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 3.40 (76th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
0.5line
OVER+210BetMGMat 0.5

Longest Reception

29 games logged
line14.5

MIA · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.915.0%1.3
94th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 16 totalvs per completion · 84th pct · 6 of 32season 0.9 (94th)17 games92nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 4 totalsupports OVER3/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
30+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.10.9%0.7
21st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.217 games (2025) · 1 totalvs per completion · 3rd pct · 31 of 32season 0.1 (21st)17 games90th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDERT-20/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-3/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.20.8%0.7
6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 3 totalvs per completion · 5th pct · T-30 of 32season 0.2 (6th)17 games65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDERT-29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-7/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
yards after catch allowed to TEs33.45.330.7
97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 568 totalvs per reception · 68th pct · 11 of 32season 33.4 (97th)17 games68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 92 totalsupports OVER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER11/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
air yards faced211.97.2189.3
13th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 3603 totalvs per target · 16th pct · 27 of 32season 211.9 (13th)17 games13th percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 568 totalsupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
T.J. Hockenson Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.402.80
SZN
76th percentile for mostleague avg 2.5515 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 3.40 (76th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
yards per catch8.318.53
SZN
22nd percentile for mostleague avg 10.1115 games (2025)vs last 5 · 27th pctseason 8.31 (22nd)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
air yards per target4.706.96
SZN
31st percentile for mostleague avg 5.8715 games (2025)vs last 5 · 68th pctseason 4.70 (31st)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports OVER
20+ yard catches per game0.200.20
SZN
46th percentile for mostleague avg 0.3115 games (2025)vs last 5 · 46th pctseason 0.20 (46th)5 gamesneutralneutral
14.5line
OVER-115bet365at 14.5
UNDER-115bet365at 14.5

Receiving Yards

29 games logged
line36.5

MIA · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to TEs65.810.470.0
87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 53.317 games (2025) · 1118 totalvs per reception · 68th pct · 11 of 32season 65.8 (87th)17 games87th percentile for most allowedleague avg 52.53 games (2026) · 210 totalsupports OVER5/32 NFL defencessupports OVER5/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
receptions allowed to TEs6.377.0%5.0
95th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 107 totalvs per target · 97th pct · 2 of 32season 6.3 (95th)17 games48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 15 totalsupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER17/32 NFL defencesneutral
receiving yards allowed230.610.6231.0
55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 3920 totalvs per reception · 32nd pct · 22 of 32season 230.6 (55th)17 games55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 693 totalneutral15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER15/32 NFL defencesneutral
yards after catch allowed to TEs33.45.330.7
97th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 568 totalvs per reception · 68th pct · 11 of 32season 33.4 (97th)17 games68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 92 totalsupports OVER2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER11/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
T.J. Hockenson Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.402.80
SZN
76th percentile for mostleague avg 2.5515 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 3.40 (76th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
targets per game4.403.80
SZN
70th percentile for mostleague avg 3.5115 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 4.40 (70th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
target share15.8%16.6%
SZN
74th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%15 games (2025)vs last 5 · 78th pctseason 15.8% (74th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share77.9%75.0%
SZN
83rd percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%15 games (2025)vs last 5 · 80th pctseason 77.9% (83rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
36.5line
OVER-115bet365at 36.5
UNDER-115bet365at 36.5

Receptions

29 games logged
line4.5

MIA · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to TEs6.377.0%5.0
95th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 107 totalvs per target · 97th pct · 2 of 32season 6.3 (95th)17 games48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 15 totalsupports OVERT-2/32 NFL defencessupports OVER17/32 NFL defencesneutral
targets allowed to TEs8.28.25.7
74th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.317 games (2025) · 139 totalseason 8.2no per-play form for this stat19th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.23 games (2026) · 17 totalsupports OVER9/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-25/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed21.821.820.3
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 371 totalseason 21.8no per-play form for this stat50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 61 totalsupports OVER11/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-16/32 NFL defencesneutral
T.J. Hockenson Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.402.80
SZN
76th percentile for mostleague avg 2.5515 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 3.40 (76th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
targets per game4.403.80
SZN
70th percentile for mostleague avg 3.5115 games (2025)vs last 5 · 59th pctseason 4.40 (70th)5 gamessupports OVERneutral
target share15.8%16.6%
SZN
74th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%15 games (2025)vs last 5 · 78th pctseason 15.8% (74th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share77.9%75.0%
SZN
83rd percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%15 games (2025)vs last 5 · 80th pctseason 77.9% (83rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
4.5line
OVER+105bet365at 4.5
UNDER-135bet365at 4.5

odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing