Best NFL Anytime Touchdown Props, Sunday October 11

3 selections from 29 NFL anytime touchdown props across 13 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Dallas Goedert Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+310	DraftKings	over in 50% of his last ten; Jacksonville Jaguars rank 10th of 32 for TDs allowed to TEs, at 0.5 a game over 17 games
Brenton Strange Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+290	DraftKings	over in 30% of his last ten; Brenton Strange averages 0.50 red zone touches a game over 4 games, against 0.34 for TEs (74th percentile)
Christian Watson Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+180	FanDuel	over in 70% of his last ten; Christian Watson averages 1.25 red zone touches a game over 4 games, against 0.38 for WRs (97th percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of his season rate, last season's until this one has enough games behind it, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Dallas Goedert Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars · kickoff 9:30 AM ET

+310at DraftKings

Dallas Goedert has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 56% of 16 games last season and 50% across the last ten.

Jacksonville Jaguars rank 10th of 32 for TDs allowed to TEs, at 0.5 a game over 17 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars rank 11th of 32 for red zone targets allowed to TEs, at 1.2 a game over 17 games.

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +310 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Jacksonville Jaguars rank 22nd of 32 for touchdowns allowed, at 2.2 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Dallas Goedert

Angle 2

Brenton Strange Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars · kickoff 9:30 AM ET

+290at DraftKings

Brenton Strange has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 23% of 13 games last season and 30% across the last ten.

Brenton Strange averages 0.50 red zone touches a game over 4 games, against 0.34 for TEs (74th percentile).
Brenton Strange averages 0.50 red zone targets a game over 4 games, against 0.48 for TEs (61st percentile).
Brenton Strange averages 3.50 receptions a game over 4 games, against 2.11 for TEs (77th percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +290 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Philadelphia Eagles rank 30th of 32 for TDs allowed to TEs, at 0.2 a game over 17 games.

Philadelphia Eagles rank 27th of 32 for red zone targets allowed to TEs, at 0.8 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Brenton Strange

Angle 3

Christian Watson Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

+180at FanDuel

Christian Watson has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 45% of 11 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

Christian Watson averages 1.25 red zone touches a game over 4 games, against 0.38 for WRs (97th percentile).
Christian Watson averages 1.75 red zone targets a game over 4 games, against 0.64 for WRs (97th percentile).
Christian Watson averages 5.00 receptions a game over 4 games, against 2.97 for WRs (85th percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +180 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

The last ten (70%) sits a long way from last season's rate (45%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Christian Watson

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: 49ers vs Seahawks player props.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, October 11. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 10, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.