Best NFL Anytime Touchdown Props, Sunday September 27

3 selections from 42 NFL anytime touchdown props across 14 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+350	bet365	over in 20% of his last ten; Patrick Mahomes averages 1.07 red zone touches a game over 14 games, against 0.72 for QBs (76th percentile)
De'Von Achane Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+115	DraftKings	over in 40% of his last ten; De'Von Achane averages 2.44 red zone touches a game over 16 games, against 2.17 for RBs (68th percentile)
Garrett Wilson Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+200	Fanatics	over in 50% of his last ten; Garrett Wilson averages 0.71 red zone targets a game over 7 games, against 0.64 for WRs (65th percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is a player's last ten games where he has no season baseline on record, and otherwise 60% of the last ten and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

+350at bet365

Patrick Mahomes has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 36% of 14 games last season and 20% across the last ten.

Patrick Mahomes averages 1.07 red zone touches a game over 14 games, against 0.72 for QBs (76th percentile).
Patrick Mahomes averages 4.57 carries a game over 14 games, against 3.55 for QBs (71st percentile).
Miami Dolphins rank 11th of 32 for TDs allowed to QBs, at 0.2 a game over 17 games.

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +350 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Full game log and every book on Patrick Mahomes

Angle 2

De'Von Achane Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

+115at DraftKings

De'Von Achane has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 63% of 16 games last season and 40% across the last ten.

De'Von Achane averages 2.44 red zone touches a game over 16 games, against 2.17 for RBs (68th percentile).
De'Von Achane averages 0.69 red zone targets a game over 16 games, against 0.36 for RBs (90th percentile).
De'Von Achane averages 14.88 carries a game over 16 games, against 10.79 for RBs (75th percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +115 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Kansas City Chiefs rank 25th of 32 for TDs allowed to RBs, at 0.7 a game over 17 games.

Kansas City Chiefs rank 20th of 32 for red zone carries allowed to RBs, at 3.5 a game over 17 games.

The last ten (40%) sits a long way from last season's rate (63%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on De'Von Achane

Angle 3

Garrett Wilson Over 0.5 Anytime TD

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

+200at Fanatics

Garrett Wilson has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 50% of his last ten games.

Garrett Wilson averages 0.71 red zone targets a game over 7 games, against 0.64 for WRs (65th percentile).
Garrett Wilson averages 5.14 receptions a game over 7 games, against 2.90 for WRs (91st percentile).
Detroit Lions rank 2nd of 32 for TDs allowed to WRs, at 1.3 a game over 17 games.

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +200 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Full game log and every book on Garrett Wilson

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Bengals vs Steelers player props.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, September 27. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 26, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.