Best NFL Anytime Touchdown Props, Thursday October 15

2 selections from 4 NFL anytime touchdown props across 1 game that cleared our form and pricing filters on Thursday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
AJ Barner Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+390	BetMGM	over in 30% of his last ten; AJ Barner averages 0.76 red zone touches a game over 17 games, against 0.35 for TEs (87th percentile)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+115	BetMGM	over in 60% of his last ten; Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 0.59 red zone touches a game over 17 games, against 0.34 for WRs (83rd percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of his season rate, last season's until this one has enough games behind it, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

AJ Barner Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos · kickoff 8:15 PM ET

+390at BetMGM

AJ Barner has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 35% of 20 games last season and 30% across the last ten.

AJ Barner averages 0.76 red zone touches a game over 17 games, against 0.35 for TEs (87th percentile).
AJ Barner averages 0.76 red zone targets a game over 17 games, against 0.52 for TEs (75th percentile).
AJ Barner averages 3.06 receptions a game over 17 games, against 2.20 for TEs (72nd percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +390 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Denver Broncos rank 15th of 32 for TDs allowed to TEs, at 0.3 a game over 17 games.

Denver Broncos rank 20th of 32 for red zone targets allowed to TEs, at 1.1 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on AJ Barner

Angle 2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos · kickoff 8:15 PM ET

+115at BetMGM

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 50% of 20 games last season and 60% across the last ten.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 0.59 red zone touches a game over 17 games, against 0.34 for WRs (83rd percentile).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 1.00 red zone targets a game over 17 games, against 0.59 for WRs (86th percentile).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba averages 7.00 receptions a game over 17 games, against 2.74 for WRs (98th percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +115 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Denver Broncos rank 31st of 32 for TDs allowed to WRs, at 0.3 a game over 17 games.

Denver Broncos rank 30th of 32 for touchdowns allowed, at 1.7 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Jaxon Smith-Njigba

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best NFL receiving yards props for Thursday.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Thursday, October 15. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 14, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.