NFL PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, October 18
Final. These games have been played; every price is as published.
3 selections from 17 NFL rushing yards props across 12 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.
Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.
| Pick | Price | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen Under 65.5 Rushing Yards | -110 | DraftKings | under in 90% of his last ten; Braelon Allen averages 4.50 carries a game over 4 games, against 10.13 for RBs (18th percentile) |
| Geno Smith Under 8.5 Rushing Yards | -110 | DraftKings | under in 80% of his last ten; Geno Smith averages 2.73 carries a game over 15 games, against 3.53 for QBs (38th percentile) |
| Najee Harris Over 23.5 Rushing Yards | -109 | betPARX | over in 60% of his last ten; New Orleans Saints rank 11th of 32 for rushing yards allowed to RBs, at 102.8 a game over 17 games |
Form here is a player's last ten games where he has no season baseline on record, and otherwise 60% of the last ten and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.
Next best −112 at BetOnline.agSame 65.5 line
Braelon Allen has gone under 65.5 rushing yards in 90% of his last ten games.
Braelon Allen averages 4.50 carries a game over 4 games, against 10.13 for RBs (18th percentile).
New England Patriots rank 28th of 32 for rushing yards allowed to RBs, at 77.1 a game over 17 games.
New England Patriots rank 28th of 32 for carries allowed to RBs, at 19.6 a game over 17 games.
Next best −114 at betPARXSame 8.5 line
Geno Smith has gone under 8.5 rushing yards in 67% of 15 games last season and 80% across the last ten.
Geno Smith averages 2.73 carries a game over 15 games, against 3.53 for QBs (38th percentile).
Geno Smith has 2.43 yards per carry over 14 games, against 4.27 for QBs (14th percentile).
New England Patriots rank 22nd of 32 for rushing yards allowed to QBs, at 16.3 a game over 17 games.
Next best −110 at BetRiversSame 23.5 line
Najee Harris has gone over 23.5 rushing yards in 60% of his last ten games.
New Orleans Saints rank 11th of 32 for rushing yards allowed to RBs, at 102.8 a game over 17 games.
New Orleans Saints rank 2nd of 32 for carries allowed to RBs, at 25.6 a game over 17 games.
New Orleans Saints rank 3rd of 32 for most run against runs faced, at 27.3 a game over 17 games.
These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.
Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.
Same slate: Best NFL anytime touchdown props for Sunday.
Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, October 18. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 17, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.