Best NFL Rushing Yards Props, Sunday September 20

3 selections from 23 NFL rushing yards props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Kyle Monangai Over 37.5 Rushing Yards	-110	betPARX	over in 60% of his last ten; Minnesota Vikings rank 9th of 32 for rushing yards allowed to RBs, at 105.1 a game over 17 games
Bo Nix Under 17.5 Rushing Yards	-108	DraftKings	under in 70% of his last ten; Jacksonville Jaguars rank 21st of 32 for rushing yards allowed to QBs, at 16.6 a game over 17 games
Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 Rushing Yards	-111	DraftKings	over in 60% of his last ten; Trevor Lawrence averages 4.82 carries a game over 17 games, against 3.55 for QBs (74th percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of his season rate, last season's until this one has enough games behind it, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Kyle Monangai Over 37.5 Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-110at betPARX

Kyle Monangai has gone over 37.5 rushing yards in 37% of 19 games last season and 60% across the last ten.

Minnesota Vikings rank 9th of 32 for rushing yards allowed to RBs, at 105.1 a game over 17 games.
Minnesota Vikings rank 1st of 32 for carries allowed to RBs, at 26.9 a game over 17 games.
Minnesota Vikings rank 1st of 32 for most run against runs faced, at 28.9 a game over 17 games.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at -110.

The last ten (60%) sits a long way from last season's rate (37%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Kyle Monangai

Angle 2

Bo Nix Under 17.5 Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos · kickoff 4:05 PM ET

-108at DraftKings

Bo Nix has gone under 17.5 rushing yards in 44% of 18 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

Jacksonville Jaguars rank 21st of 32 for rushing yards allowed to QBs, at 16.6 a game over 17 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars rank 24th of 32 for carries allowed to QBs, at 3.6 a game over 17 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars rank 32nd of 32 for most run against runs faced, at 19.1 a game over 17 games.

The case against

At -108 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Bo Nix averages 4.88 carries a game over 17 games, against 3.55 for QBs (76th percentile).

The last ten (70%) sits a long way from last season's rate (44%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Bo Nix

Angle 3

Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos · kickoff 4:05 PM ET

-111at DraftKings

Trevor Lawrence has gone over 16.5 rushing yards in 56% of 18 games last season and 60% across the last ten.

Trevor Lawrence averages 4.82 carries a game over 17 games, against 3.55 for QBs (74th percentile).
Trevor Lawrence has 4.69 yards per carry over 17 games, against 4.27 for QBs (60th percentile).

The case against

Nothing about -111 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Denver Broncos rank 29th of 32 for most run against runs faced, at 21.2 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Trevor Lawrence

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Bengals vs Texans player props.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, September 20. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 19, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.