Best NFL Rushing Yards Props, Sunday September 27

3 selections from 23 NFL rushing yards props across 14 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Patrick Mahomes Over 16.5 Rushing Yards	-114	FanDuel	over in 70% of his last ten; Patrick Mahomes averages 4.57 carries a game over 14 games, against 3.55 for QBs (71st percentile)
Geno Smith Under 11.5 Rushing Yards	-112	DraftKings	under in 80% of his last ten; Geno Smith averages 2.73 carries a game over 15 games, against 3.55 for QBs (38th percentile)
Braelon Allen Under 17.5 Rushing Yards	-109	DraftKings	under in 60% of his last ten; Braelon Allen averages 4.50 carries a game over 4 games, against 10.79 for RBs (15th percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is a player's last ten games where he has no season baseline on record, and otherwise 60% of the last ten and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Patrick Mahomes Over 16.5 Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-114at FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes has gone over 16.5 rushing yards in 64% of 14 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

Patrick Mahomes averages 4.57 carries a game over 14 games, against 3.55 for QBs (71st percentile).
Patrick Mahomes has 6.41 yards per carry over 14 games, against 4.27 for QBs (90th percentile).
Miami Dolphins rank 7th of 32 for rushing yards allowed to QBs, at 21.5 a game over 17 games.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at -114.

Full game log and every book on Patrick Mahomes

Angle 2

Geno Smith Under 11.5 Rushing Yards

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-112at DraftKings

Geno Smith has gone under 11.5 rushing yards in 80% of 15 games last season and 80% across the last ten.

Geno Smith averages 2.73 carries a game over 15 games, against 3.55 for QBs (38th percentile).
Geno Smith has 2.43 yards per carry over 14 games, against 4.27 for QBs (14th percentile).
Detroit Lions rank 27th of 32 for rushing yards allowed to QBs, at 15.2 a game over 17 games.

The case against

At -112 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Detroit Lions rank 10th of 32 for carries allowed to QBs, at 4.5 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Geno Smith

Angle 3

Braelon Allen Under 17.5 Rushing Yards

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-109at DraftKings

Braelon Allen has gone under 17.5 rushing yards in 60% of his last ten games.

Braelon Allen averages 4.50 carries a game over 4 games, against 10.79 for RBs (15th percentile).
Detroit Lions rank 21st of 32 for rushing yards allowed to RBs, at 89.2 a game over 17 games.
Detroit Lions rank 22nd of 32 for carries allowed to RBs, at 20.8 a game over 17 games.

The case against

Nothing about -109 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Braelon Allen has 4.62 yards per carry over 4 games, against 4.18 for RBs (67th percentile).

Full game log and every book on Braelon Allen

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Bengals vs Steelers player props.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, September 27. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 26, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.