NFL PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, September 13
Final. These games have been played; every price is as published.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, kickoff 1:00 PM ET. Below are our 2 best props in this game, chosen on recent form, season baseline, the matchup and the odds actually available, with the exact price, where to get it, and the reason each might be wrong.
Correction, September 14, 2026: The usage line under David Montgomery printed his target share as a per-game count ('averages 5.4 target share a game'); it now reads as a share ('target share is 5.4%'). The numbers, picks and prices are left exactly as published.
Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.
| Pick | Price | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook Under 2.5 Receptions | +115 | BetMGM | under in 70% of his last ten; James Cook averages 2.35 targets a game over 17 games, against 2.73 for RBs (40th percentile) |
| David Montgomery Under 1.5 Receptions | +110 | BetOnline.ag | under in 60% of his last ten; David Montgomery averages 1.41 receptions a game over 17 games, against 2.15 for RBs (28th percentile) |
Form here is a player's last ten games where he has no season baseline on record, and otherwise 60% of the last ten and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.
Angle 1
James Cook has gone under 2.5 receptions in 70% of his last ten games.
The case against
The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at +115.
Angle 2
David Montgomery has gone under 1.5 receptions in 60% of his last ten games.
The case against
At +110 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.
These are our strongest props in this matchup, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.
Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.
Same slate: Bears vs Panthers player props.
Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, September 13. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 12, 11:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.