Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · NFL

BAL @ BUF

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills · 1:00 PM ET

1 = allows the most

2026 regular season · Stats through Oct 29, 2026 · 6–8 games per defense

BUF defense allowsWhat Baltimore sees

6 games

BUF funnels toward QB passing yards: 2nd-most allowed (298.7). Offenses pass 0.7 pp less often than expected against BUF.

BUF allowances, 2026. Highest allowance is rank 1.
Rank	Stat	Allowed	VS NFL
1	Touchdowns / game · WR	1.83	+108.5%
Supports OVER Devontez Walkero0.5 Anytime TD+1300 Bally BetL10 2/10 Elijah Sarratto0.5 Anytime TD+2250 Hard Rock BetL1 0/1 Ja'Kobi Laneo0.5 Anytime TD+333 BetMGML3 0/3 LaJohntay Westero0.5 Anytime TD+2250 Hard Rock BetL6 0/6 Rashod Batemano0.5 Anytime TD+425 Bally BetL10 1/10 Zay Flowerso0.5 Anytime TD+143 Bally BetL10 7/10
T1	Red-zone trips / game	4.33	+31.1%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo0.5 Anytime TD−210 FanDuelL10 7/10 Devontez Walkero0.5 Anytime TD+1300 Bally BetL10 2/10 Elijah Sarratto0.5 Anytime TD+2250 Hard Rock BetL1 0/1 Ja'Kobi Laneo0.5 Anytime TD+333 BetMGML3 0/3 Josh Cuevaso0.5 Anytime TD+1000 BovadaL7 1/7 Justice Hillo0.5 Anytime TD+600 FanaticsL10 1/10 LaJohntay Westero0.5 Anytime TD+2250 Hard Rock BetL6 0/6 Lamar Jacksono0.5 Anytime TD+320 BetMGML10 2/10 Mark Andrewso0.5 Anytime TD+230 BetMGML10 1/10 Nick Vannetto0.5 Anytime TD+1600 Bally BetL10 2/10 Rasheen Alio0.5 Anytime TD+2800 BetMGML10 1/10 Rashod Batemano0.5 Anytime TD+425 Bally BetL10 1/10 Zay Flowerso0.5 Anytime TD+143 Bally BetL10 7/10
2	Rec yards / game · RB	47.3	+47.7%
Supports OVER Justice Hillo11.5 Rec Yards−110 betPARXL10 5/10 Derrick Henryo7.5 Rec Yards−105 betPARXL10 3/10
2	QB pass yards / game	298.7	+26.5%
Supports OVER Lamar Jacksono237.5 Passing Yards−113 CourtsideL10 3/10
2	RZ targets / game · RB	1.67	+122.1%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo0.5 Anytime TD−210 FanDuelL10 7/10 Justice Hillo0.5 Anytime TD+600 FanaticsL10 1/10 Rasheen Alio0.5 Anytime TD+2800 BetMGML10 1/10
T2	Dropbacks / game	44.0	+17.1%
Supports OVER Lamar Jacksono30.5 Passing Attempts−105 theScore BetL10 3/10
2	Offensive plays faced / game	68.5	+11.1%
Supports OVER Lamar Jacksono30.5 Passing Attempts−105 theScore BetL10 3/10
3	QB pass attempts / game	40.3	+20.4%
Supports OVER Lamar Jacksono30.5 Passing Attempts−105 theScore BetL10 3/10
3	QB completions / game	26.2	+21.8%
Supports OVER Lamar Jacksono19.5 Completions−116 BetOnline.agL10 1/10
3	Dropback success rate	50.4%	+4.9 pp
Supports OVER Lamar Jacksono237.5 Passing Yards−113 CourtsideL10 3/10
3	Dropback explosive rate	10.2%	+2.2 pp
Supports OVER Lamar Jacksono36.5 Longest Completion−106 Bally BetL10 5/10
3	Rec yards / game · TE	77.5	+42.1%
Supports OVER Mark Andrewso28.5 Rec Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 2/10 Josh Cuevaso9.5 Rec Yards−112 BetOnline.agL7 4/7
3	Receptions / game · RB	6.0	+33.0%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo1.5 Receptions+150 betPARXL10 2/10 Justice Hillo1.5 Receptions−141 betPARXL10 6/10
3	Touchdowns / game · RB	1.50	+65.3%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo0.5 Anytime TD−210 FanDuelL10 7/10 Justice Hillo0.5 Anytime TD+600 FanaticsL10 1/10 Rasheen Alio0.5 Anytime TD+2800 BetMGML10 1/10
3	RZ targets / game · WR	3.83	+51.9%
Supports OVER Devontez Walkero0.5 Anytime TD+1300 Bally BetL10 2/10 Elijah Sarratto0.5 Anytime TD+2250 Hard Rock BetL1 0/1 Ja'Kobi Laneo0.5 Anytime TD+333 BetMGML3 0/3 LaJohntay Westero0.5 Anytime TD+2250 Hard Rock BetL6 0/6 Rashod Batemano0.5 Anytime TD+425 Bally BetL10 1/10 Zay Flowerso0.5 Anytime TD+143 Bally BetL10 7/10
4	Target share · RB	21.8%	+3.8 pp
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo1.5 Receptions+150 betPARXL10 2/10 Justice Hillo1.5 Receptions−141 betPARXL10 6/10 Justice Hillo11.5 Rec Yards−110 betPARXL10 5/10 Derrick Henryo7.5 Rec Yards−105 betPARXL10 3/10
4	Dropback EPA / play	+0.234	+0.17
Supports OVER Lamar Jacksono237.5 Passing Yards−113 CourtsideL10 3/10
T6	Receptions / game · WR	13.7	+19.4%
Supports OVER Zay Flowerso6.5 Receptions+120 bet365L10 4/10 Ja'Kobi Laneo2.5 Receptions−105 theScore BetL3 2/3 Rashod Batemano2.5 Receptions+140 theScore BetL10 2/10 Devontez Walkero0.5 Receptions+100 BetOnline.agL10 4/10
7	Rec yards / game · WR	173.8	+16.4%
Supports OVER Zay Flowerso83.5 Rec Yards−112 betPARXL10 6/10 Ja'Kobi Laneo31.5 Rec Yards−112 betPARXL3 1/3 Rashod Batemano23.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL10 5/10 Devontez Walkero4.5 Rec Yards+112 FanDuelL10 4/10
7	Receptions / game · TE	6.5	+18.0%
Supports OVER Mark Andrewso3.5 Receptions+116 FanDuelL10 5/10 Josh Cuevaso1.5 Receptions+152 BetOnline.agL7 3/7
9	RB rushing EPA / play	−0.062	+0.03
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo78.5 Rush Yards−114 FanDuelL10 6/10 Justice Hillo10.5 Rush Yards+100 theScore BetL10 3/10
T12	RB carries / game	23.0	+3.7%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo18.5 Rushing Attempts+100 betPARXL10 6/10 Justice Hillo3.5 Rushing Attempts+105 FliffL10 3/10
13	Rush success rate	42.2%	+1.9 pp
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo78.5 Rush Yards−114 FanDuelL10 6/10 Lamar Jacksono25.5 Rush Yards−105 BetMGML10 6/10 Justice Hillo10.5 Rush Yards+100 theScore BetL10 3/10
14	QB pass yards / attempt	7.41	+4.8%
No lean at 14 of 32 Lamar Jackson237.5 Passing Yardso −113 · u −111L10 3/10 over
T14	RZ targets / game · TE	1.17	−11.0%
No lean at 14 (tied) of 32 Josh Cuevas0.5 Anytime TDo +1000L7 1/7 over Mark Andrews0.5 Anytime TDo +230L10 1/10 over Nick Vannett0.5 Anytime TDo +1600L10 2/10 over
16	Target share · TE	23.9%	−0.1 pp
No lean at 16 of 32 Mark Andrews3.5 Receptionso +116 · u −130L10 5/10 over Josh Cuevas1.5 Receptionso +152 · u −165L7 3/7 over Mark Andrews28.5 Rec Yardso −110 · u −112L10 2/10 over Josh Cuevas9.5 Rec Yardso −112 · u −105L7 4/7 over
16	Rush explosive rate	9.5%	+0.3 pp
No lean at 16 of 32 Derrick Henry17.5 Longest Rusho −110 · u −110L10 5/10 over Lamar Jackson11.5 Longest Rusho −111 · u −105L10 5/10 over Justice Hill6.5 Longest Rusho +105 · u −110L10 3/10 over
T16	QB completion rate	64.9%	+0.7 pp
No lean at 16 (tied) of 32 Lamar Jackson19.5 Completionso −116 · u +105L10 1/10 over
20	RB rush yards / game	82.8	−9.1%
Supports UNDER Derrick Henryu78.5 Rush Yards−110 BetOnline.agL10 4/10 Justice Hillu10.5 Rush Yards−106 betPARXL10 7/10
T26	Touchdowns / game · TE	0.17	−67.3%
28	RB yards / carry	3.60	−11.9%
Supports UNDER Derrick Henryu78.5 Rush Yards−110 BetOnline.agL10 4/10 Justice Hillu10.5 Rush Yards−106 betPARXL10 7/10
28	Target share · WR	54.2%	−3.7 pp
Supports UNDER Zay Flowersu6.5 Receptions−143 BetOnline.agL10 6/10 Ja'Kobi Laneu2.5 Receptions+100 bet365L3 1/3 Rashod Batemanu2.5 Receptions−143 betPARXL10 8/10 Devontez Walkeru0.5 Receptions−105 BovadaL10 6/10 Zay Flowersu83.5 Rec Yards−117 betPARXL10 4/10 Ja'Kobi Laneu31.5 Rec Yards−110 BetOnline.agL3 2/3 Rashod Batemanu23.5 Rec Yards−111 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Devontez Walkeru4.5 Rec Yards−112 DraftKingsL10 6/10

BAL defense allowsWhat Buffalo sees

7 games

BAL funnels toward WR targets: 4th-most allowed (63.6%). Offenses pass 0.3 pp less often than expected against BAL.

BAL allowances, 2026. Highest allowance is rank 1.
Rank	Stat	Allowed	VS NFL
4	Target share · WR	63.6%	+5.7 pp
Supports OVER DJ Mooreo4.5 Receptions+130 FanaticsL10 5/10 Khalil Shakiro3.5 Receptions−149 BetOnline.agL10 7/10 Keon Colemano2.5 Receptions+139 BetOnline.agL10 3/10 Joshua Palmero1.5 Receptions+172 bet365L10 2/10 DJ Mooreo55.5 Rec Yards−113 CourtsideL10 5/10 Khalil Shakiro41.5 Rec Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Keon Colemano29.5 Rec Yards−107 CourtsideL10 6/10 Joshua Palmero10.5 Rec Yards−111 CourtsideL10 7/10
5	Rec yards / game · WR	181.6	+21.5%
Supports OVER DJ Mooreo55.5 Rec Yards−113 CourtsideL10 5/10 Khalil Shakiro41.5 Rec Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Keon Colemano29.5 Rec Yards−107 CourtsideL10 6/10 Joshua Palmero10.5 Rec Yards−111 CourtsideL10 7/10
T6	Touchdowns / game · TE	0.71	+36.6%
Supports OVER Dalton Kincaido0.5 Anytime TD+220 BovadaL10 3/10 Dawson Knoxo0.5 Anytime TD+600 BetMGML10 2/10 Jackson Haweso0.5 Anytime TD+1200 Bally BetL10 0/10 Keleki Latuo0.5 Anytime TD+1300 Bally BetL5 0/5
T8	Receptions / game · WR	13.1	+14.8%
Supports OVER DJ Mooreo4.5 Receptions+130 FanaticsL10 5/10 Khalil Shakiro3.5 Receptions−149 BetOnline.agL10 7/10 Keon Colemano2.5 Receptions+139 BetOnline.agL10 3/10 Joshua Palmero1.5 Receptions+172 bet365L10 2/10
T10	QB completion rate	66.1%	+1.9 pp
Supports OVER Josh Alleno20.5 Completions−105 betPARXL10 5/10
T12	RZ targets / game · TE	1.29	−1.9%
Supports OVER Dalton Kincaido0.5 Anytime TD+220 BovadaL10 3/10 Dawson Knoxo0.5 Anytime TD+600 BetMGML10 2/10 Jackson Haweso0.5 Anytime TD+1200 Bally BetL10 0/10 Keleki Latuo0.5 Anytime TD+1300 Bally BetL5 0/5
13	Target share · RB	18.4%	+0.4 pp
Supports OVER Ty Johnsono2.5 Receptions+142 CaesarsL10 5/10 James Cook IIIo1.5 Receptions−112 betPARXL10 5/10 Ty Johnsono15.5 Rec Yards+100 theScore BetL10 6/10 James Cook IIIo9.5 Rec Yards−114 CourtsideL10 3/10
T13	Touchdowns / game · RB	0.86	−5.2%
Supports OVER James Cook IIIo0.5 Anytime TD−155 CourtsideL10 5/10 Ray Daviso0.5 Anytime TD+1100 bet365L10 1/10 Ty Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+700 Bally BetL10 2/10
14	Red-zone trips / game	3.43	+3.9%
No lean at 14 of 32 Dalton Kincaid0.5 Anytime TDo +220L10 3/10 over Dawson Knox0.5 Anytime TDo +600L10 2/10 over DJ Moore0.5 Anytime TDo +195L10 5/10 over Greg Dortch0.5 Anytime TDo +2200L10 4/10 over Jackson Hawes0.5 Anytime TDo +1200L10 0/10 over James Cook III0.5 Anytime TDo −155L10 5/10 over Josh Allen0.5 Anytime TDo −160L10 7/10 over Joshua Palmer0.5 Anytime TDo +700L10 2/10 over Keleki Latu0.5 Anytime TDo +1300L5 0/5 over Keon Coleman0.5 Anytime TDo +375L10 4/10 over Khalil Shakir0.5 Anytime TDo +250L10 1/10 over Ray Davis0.5 Anytime TDo +1100L10 1/10 over Skyler Bell0.5 Anytime TDo +1150L2 0/2 over Ty Johnson0.5 Anytime TDo +700L10 2/10 over
15	Dropback success rate	45.7%	+0.2 pp
No lean at 15 of 32 Josh Allen247.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 7/10 over
16	QB completions / game	21.4	−0.3%
No lean at 16 of 32 Josh Allen20.5 Completionso −105 · u −113L10 5/10 over
T17	QB pass yards / game	235.1	−0.4%
No lean at 17 (tied) of 32 Josh Allen247.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 7/10 over
17	QB pass yards / attempt	7.25	+2.6%
No lean at 17 of 32 Josh Allen247.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 7/10 over
17	Dropback EPA / play	+0.055	−0.01
No lean at 17 of 32 Josh Allen247.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 7/10 over
T17	RZ targets / game · WR	2.43	−3.6%
No lean at 17 (tied) of 32 DJ Moore0.5 Anytime TDo +195L10 5/10 over Greg Dortch0.5 Anytime TDo +2200L10 4/10 over Joshua Palmer0.5 Anytime TDo +700L10 2/10 over Keon Coleman0.5 Anytime TDo +375L10 4/10 over Khalil Shakir0.5 Anytime TDo +250L10 1/10 over Skyler Bell0.5 Anytime TDo +1150L2 0/2 over
17	Dropbacks / game	37.9	+0.8%
No lean at 17 of 32 Josh Allen30.5 Passing Attemptso −114 · u −109L10 6/10 over
18	QB pass attempts / game	32.4	−3.2%
No lean at 18 of 32 Josh Allen30.5 Passing Attemptso −114 · u −109L10 6/10 over
18	RB rushing EPA / play	−0.096	0.00
No lean at 18 of 32 James Cook III83.5 Rush Yardso −110 · u −113L10 5/10 over Ray Davis4.5 Rush Yardso −110 · u −110L10 1/10 over Ty Johnson2.5 Rush Yardso −110 · u −120L10 8/10 over
19	Dropback explosive rate	7.9%	−0.1 pp
No lean at 19 of 32 Josh Allen38.5 Longest Completiono −115 · u −108L10 6/10 over
19	Receptions / game · RB	4.1	−8.2%
No lean at 19 of 32 Ty Johnson2.5 Receptionso +142 · u −170L10 5/10 over James Cook III1.5 Receptionso −112 · u +105L10 5/10 over
20	Rush success rate	39.9%	−0.4 pp
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu83.5 Rush Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Josh Allenu35.5 Rush Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 7/10 Ray Davisu4.5 Rush Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 9/10 Ty Johnsonu2.5 Rush Yards−120 bet365L10 2/10
T20	Touchdowns / game · WR	0.71	−19.1%
T20	Offensive plays faced / game	60.4	−2.0%
Supports UNDER Josh Allenu30.5 Passing Attempts−109 BetOnline.agL10 4/10
T22	RB carries / game	20.7	−6.6%
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu18.5 Rushing Attempts−115 DraftKingsL10 4/10 Ray Davisu1.5 Rushing Attempts+120 bet365L10 8/10 Ty Johnsonu0.5 Rushing Attempts+172 bet365L10 2/10
T24	RZ targets / game · RB	0.43	−42.8%
25	RB yards / carry	3.75	−8.3%
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu83.5 Rush Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Ray Davisu4.5 Rush Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 9/10 Ty Johnsonu2.5 Rush Yards−120 bet365L10 2/10
25	RB rush yards / game	77.7	−14.7%
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu83.5 Rush Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Ray Davisu4.5 Rush Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 9/10 Ty Johnsonu2.5 Rush Yards−120 bet365L10 2/10
27	Rush explosive rate	7.6%	−1.7 pp
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu18.5 Longest Rush−112 DraftKingsL10 7/10 Josh Allenu13.5 Longest Rush−114 betPARXL10 5/10 Ray Davisu4.5 Longest Rush−120 bet365L10 9/10 Ty Johnsonu2.5 Longest Rush−120 bet365L10 2/10
27	Rec yards / game · TE	39.0	−28.5%
Supports UNDER Dalton Kincaidu45.5 Rec Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 6/10 Dawson Knoxu7.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L10 5/10
T29	Receptions / game · TE	4.1	−24.9%
Supports UNDER Dalton Kincaidu3.5 Receptions+110 betPARXL10 6/10 Dawson Knoxu1.5 Receptions−186 DraftKingsL10 4/10
31	Target share · TE	18.0%	−6.0 pp
Supports UNDER Dalton Kincaidu3.5 Receptions+110 betPARXL10 6/10 Dawson Knoxu1.5 Receptions−186 DraftKingsL10 4/10 Dalton Kincaidu45.5 Rec Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 6/10 Dawson Knoxu7.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L10 5/10
32	Rec yards / game · RB	14.6	−54.5%
Supports UNDER Ty Johnsonu15.5 Rec Yards−111 BetOnline.agL10 4/10 James Cook IIIu9.5 Rec Yards−110 betPARXL10 7/10

2025 regular season · Stats through Jan 4, 2026 · 17 games per defense

BUF defense allowsWhat Baltimore sees

17 games

BUF funnels toward RB targets: 2nd-most allowed (20.7%). Offenses pass 7.3 pp less often than expected against BUF.

BUF allowances, 2025. Highest allowance is rank 1.
Rank	Stat	Allowed	VS NFL
2	Target share · RB	20.7%	+2.8 pp
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo1.5 Receptions+150 betPARXL10 2/10 Justice Hillo1.5 Receptions−141 betPARXL10 6/10 Justice Hillo11.5 Rec Yards−110 betPARXL10 5/10 Derrick Henryo7.5 Rec Yards−105 betPARXL10 3/10
2	RB rushing EPA / play	+0.042	+0.09
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo78.5 Rush Yards−114 FanDuelL10 6/10 Justice Hillo10.5 Rush Yards+100 theScore BetL10 3/10
3	RB yards / carry	4.99	+15.1%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo78.5 Rush Yards−114 FanDuelL10 6/10 Justice Hillo10.5 Rush Yards+100 theScore BetL10 3/10
3	Rush explosive rate	13.3%	+3.3 pp
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo17.5 Longest Rush−110 Bally BetL10 5/10 Lamar Jacksono11.5 Longest Rush−111 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Justice Hillo6.5 Longest Rush+105 theScore BetL10 3/10
3	Touchdowns / game · RB	1.24	+38.5%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo0.5 Anytime TD−210 FanDuelL10 7/10 Justice Hillo0.5 Anytime TD+600 FanaticsL10 1/10 Rasheen Alio0.5 Anytime TD+2800 BetMGML10 1/10
T4	Target share · WR	61.5%	+3.5 pp
Supports OVER Zay Flowerso6.5 Receptions+120 bet365L10 4/10 Ja'Kobi Laneo2.5 Receptions−105 theScore BetL3 2/3 Rashod Batemano2.5 Receptions+140 theScore BetL10 2/10 Devontez Walkero0.5 Receptions+100 BetOnline.agL10 4/10 Zay Flowerso83.5 Rec Yards−112 betPARXL10 6/10 Ja'Kobi Laneo31.5 Rec Yards−112 betPARXL3 1/3 Rashod Batemano23.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL10 5/10 Devontez Walkero4.5 Rec Yards+112 FanDuelL10 4/10
6	RB rush yards / game	107.7	+13.4%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo78.5 Rush Yards−114 FanDuelL10 6/10 Justice Hillo10.5 Rush Yards+100 theScore BetL10 3/10
12	Rush success rate	43.1%	+1.7 pp
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo78.5 Rush Yards−114 FanDuelL10 6/10 Lamar Jacksono25.5 Rush Yards−105 BetMGML10 6/10 Justice Hillo10.5 Rush Yards+100 theScore BetL10 3/10
T12	RZ targets / game · RB	0.82	+8.9%
Supports OVER Derrick Henryo0.5 Anytime TD−210 FanDuelL10 7/10 Justice Hillo0.5 Anytime TD+600 FanaticsL10 1/10 Rasheen Alio0.5 Anytime TD+2800 BetMGML10 1/10
16	RB carries / game	21.6	−1.2%
No lean at 16 of 32 Derrick Henry18.5 Rushing Attemptso +100 · u −105L10 6/10 over Justice Hill3.5 Rushing Attemptso +105 · u −130L10 3/10 over
T16	RZ targets / game · TE	1.18	−3.5%
No lean at 16 (tied) of 32 Josh Cuevas0.5 Anytime TDo +1000L7 1/7 over Mark Andrews0.5 Anytime TDo +230L10 1/10 over Nick Vannett0.5 Anytime TDo +1600L10 2/10 over
T22	Receptions / game · RB	3.9	−7.9%
Supports UNDER Derrick Henryu1.5 Receptions−185 bet365L10 8/10 Justice Hillu1.5 Receptions+126 DraftKingsL10 4/10
23	Dropback explosive rate	7.3%	−0.8 pp
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu36.5 Longest Completion+100 bet365L10 5/10
T23	Touchdowns / game · WR	0.76	−14.5%
25	Dropback EPA / play	−0.068	−0.11
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu237.5 Passing Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 7/10
T26	Touchdowns / game · TE	0.29	−33.6%
T26	Red-zone trips / game	2.76	−13.8%
T27	Rec yards / game · RB	24.6	−22.3%
Supports UNDER Justice Hillu11.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L10 5/10 Derrick Henryu7.5 Rec Yards−107 DraftKingsL10 7/10
27	Dropback success rate	41.9%	−3.8 pp
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu237.5 Passing Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 7/10
28	Receptions / game · WR	9.7	−12.5%
Supports UNDER Zay Flowersu6.5 Receptions−143 BetOnline.agL10 6/10 Ja'Kobi Laneu2.5 Receptions+100 bet365L3 1/3 Rashod Batemanu2.5 Receptions−143 betPARXL10 8/10 Devontez Walkeru0.5 Receptions−105 BovadaL10 6/10
29	Rec yards / game · WR	116.0	−16.9%
Supports UNDER Zay Flowersu83.5 Rec Yards−117 betPARXL10 4/10 Ja'Kobi Laneu31.5 Rec Yards−110 BetOnline.agL3 2/3 Rashod Batemanu23.5 Rec Yards−111 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Devontez Walkeru4.5 Rec Yards−112 DraftKingsL10 6/10
29	QB completion rate	59.7%	−4.6 pp
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu19.5 Completions+105 BovadaL10 9/10
29	QB pass yards / attempt	6.24	−11.2%
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu237.5 Passing Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 7/10
31	QB pass attempts / game	27.3	−14.9%
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu30.5 Passing Attempts−108 betPARXL10 7/10
T31	RZ targets / game · WR	1.59	−33.0%
31	Dropbacks / game	31.5	−13.7%
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu30.5 Passing Attempts−108 betPARXL10 7/10
32	Target share · TE	17.5%	−6.4 pp
Supports UNDER Mark Andrewsu3.5 Receptions−130 bet365L10 5/10 Josh Cuevasu1.5 Receptions−165 bet365L7 4/7 Mark Andrewsu28.5 Rec Yards−112 BetOnline.agL10 8/10 Josh Cuevasu9.5 Rec Yards−105 theScore BetL7 3/7
32	QB completions / game	16.3	−21.0%
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu19.5 Completions+105 BovadaL10 9/10
32	Rec yards / game · TE	29.6	−44.4%
Supports UNDER Mark Andrewsu28.5 Rec Yards−112 BetOnline.agL10 8/10 Josh Cuevasu9.5 Rec Yards−105 theScore BetL7 3/7
32	QB pass yards / game	170.2	−24.3%
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu237.5 Passing Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 7/10
32	Receptions / game · TE	2.7	−48.4%
Supports UNDER Mark Andrewsu3.5 Receptions−130 bet365L10 5/10 Josh Cuevasu1.5 Receptions−165 bet365L7 4/7
32	Offensive plays faced / game	55.9	−7.7%
Supports UNDER Lamar Jacksonu30.5 Passing Attempts−108 betPARXL10 7/10

BAL defense allowsWhat Buffalo sees

17 games

BAL funnels toward QB passing yards: 4th-most allowed (259.0). Offenses pass 1.1 pp more often than expected against BAL.

BAL allowances, 2025. Highest allowance is rank 1.
Rank	Stat	Allowed	VS NFL
1	QB completions / game	23.5	+13.8%
Supports OVER Josh Alleno20.5 Completions−105 betPARXL10 5/10
1	RZ targets / game · RB	1.35	+79.3%
Supports OVER James Cook IIIo0.5 Anytime TD−155 CourtsideL10 5/10 Ray Daviso0.5 Anytime TD+1100 bet365L10 1/10 Ty Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+700 Bally BetL10 2/10
T2	Rec yards / game · RB	43.2	+36.7%
Supports OVER Ty Johnsono15.5 Rec Yards+100 theScore BetL10 6/10 James Cook IIIo9.5 Rec Yards−114 CourtsideL10 3/10
T2	Receptions / game · RB	5.5	+29.2%
Supports OVER Ty Johnsono2.5 Receptions+142 CaesarsL10 5/10 James Cook IIIo1.5 Receptions−112 betPARXL10 5/10
2	Receptions / game · WR	12.9	+17.3%
Supports OVER DJ Mooreo4.5 Receptions+130 FanaticsL10 5/10 Khalil Shakiro3.5 Receptions−149 BetOnline.agL10 7/10 Keon Colemano2.5 Receptions+139 BetOnline.agL10 3/10 Joshua Palmero1.5 Receptions+172 bet365L10 2/10
2	RZ targets / game · WR	3.41	+43.6%
Supports OVER DJ Mooreo0.5 Anytime TD+195 FanDuelL10 5/10 Greg Dortcho0.5 Anytime TD+2200 BetMGML10 4/10 Joshua Palmero0.5 Anytime TD+700 Bally BetL10 2/10 Keon Colemano0.5 Anytime TD+375 Bally BetL10 4/10 Khalil Shakiro0.5 Anytime TD+250 BetMGML10 1/10 Skyler Bello0.5 Anytime TD+1150 Bally BetL2 0/2
2	Dropbacks / game	41.0	+12.5%
Supports OVER Josh Alleno30.5 Passing Attempts−114 betPARXL10 6/10
3	QB pass attempts / game	36.8	+14.7%
Supports OVER Josh Alleno30.5 Passing Attempts−114 betPARXL10 6/10
3	Rec yards / game · WR	167.6	+20.1%
Supports OVER DJ Mooreo55.5 Rec Yards−113 CourtsideL10 5/10 Khalil Shakiro41.5 Rec Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Keon Colemano29.5 Rec Yards−107 CourtsideL10 6/10 Joshua Palmero10.5 Rec Yards−111 CourtsideL10 7/10
3	Offensive plays faced / game	63.4	+4.6%
Supports OVER Josh Alleno30.5 Passing Attempts−114 betPARXL10 6/10
4	QB pass yards / game	259.0	+15.1%
Supports OVER Josh Alleno247.5 Passing Yards−111 CourtsideL10 7/10
5	Dropback explosive rate	9.8%	+1.7 pp
Supports OVER Josh Alleno38.5 Longest Completion−115 Hard Rock BetL10 6/10
6	Target share · RB	19.7%	+1.8 pp
Supports OVER Ty Johnsono2.5 Receptions+142 CaesarsL10 5/10 James Cook IIIo1.5 Receptions−112 betPARXL10 5/10 Ty Johnsono15.5 Rec Yards+100 theScore BetL10 6/10 James Cook IIIo9.5 Rec Yards−114 CourtsideL10 3/10
T6	Red-zone trips / game	3.71	+15.8%
Supports OVER Dalton Kincaido0.5 Anytime TD+220 BovadaL10 3/10 Dawson Knoxo0.5 Anytime TD+600 BetMGML10 2/10 DJ Mooreo0.5 Anytime TD+195 FanDuelL10 5/10 Greg Dortcho0.5 Anytime TD+2200 BetMGML10 4/10 Jackson Haweso0.5 Anytime TD+1200 Bally BetL10 0/10 James Cook IIIo0.5 Anytime TD−155 CourtsideL10 5/10 Josh Alleno0.5 Anytime TD−160 BetMGML10 7/10 Joshua Palmero0.5 Anytime TD+700 Bally BetL10 2/10 Keleki Latuo0.5 Anytime TD+1300 Bally BetL5 0/5 Keon Colemano0.5 Anytime TD+375 Bally BetL10 4/10 Khalil Shakiro0.5 Anytime TD+250 BetMGML10 1/10 Ray Daviso0.5 Anytime TD+1100 bet365L10 1/10 Skyler Bello0.5 Anytime TD+1150 Bally BetL2 0/2 Ty Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+700 Bally BetL10 2/10
7	Target share · WR	61.2%	+3.2 pp
Supports OVER DJ Mooreo4.5 Receptions+130 FanaticsL10 5/10 Khalil Shakiro3.5 Receptions−149 BetOnline.agL10 7/10 Keon Colemano2.5 Receptions+139 BetOnline.agL10 3/10 Joshua Palmero1.5 Receptions+172 bet365L10 2/10 DJ Mooreo55.5 Rec Yards−113 CourtsideL10 5/10 Khalil Shakiro41.5 Rec Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Keon Colemano29.5 Rec Yards−107 CourtsideL10 6/10 Joshua Palmero10.5 Rec Yards−111 CourtsideL10 7/10
T11	RZ targets / game · TE	1.24	+1.4%
Supports OVER Dalton Kincaido0.5 Anytime TD+220 BovadaL10 3/10 Dawson Knoxo0.5 Anytime TD+600 BetMGML10 2/10 Jackson Haweso0.5 Anytime TD+1200 Bally BetL10 0/10 Keleki Latuo0.5 Anytime TD+1300 Bally BetL5 0/5
12	Rush explosive rate	10.5%	+0.6 pp
Supports OVER James Cook IIIo18.5 Longest Rush−110 Bally BetL10 3/10 Josh Alleno13.5 Longest Rush−105 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Ray Daviso4.5 Longest Rush−110 bet365L10 1/10 Ty Johnsono2.5 Longest Rush−110 bet365L10 8/10
12	Dropback EPA / play	+0.087	+0.04
Supports OVER Josh Alleno247.5 Passing Yards−111 CourtsideL10 7/10
T13	Touchdowns / game · RB	0.88	−1.7%
Supports OVER James Cook IIIo0.5 Anytime TD−155 CourtsideL10 5/10 Ray Daviso0.5 Anytime TD+1100 bet365L10 1/10 Ty Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+700 Bally BetL10 2/10
T13	Touchdowns / game · WR	0.94	+5.7%
Supports OVER DJ Mooreo0.5 Anytime TD+195 FanDuelL10 5/10 Greg Dortcho0.5 Anytime TD+2200 BetMGML10 4/10 Joshua Palmero0.5 Anytime TD+700 Bally BetL10 2/10 Keon Colemano0.5 Anytime TD+375 Bally BetL10 4/10 Khalil Shakiro0.5 Anytime TD+250 BetMGML10 1/10 Skyler Bello0.5 Anytime TD+1150 Bally BetL2 0/2
16	Dropback success rate	45.9%	+0.3 pp
No lean at 16 of 32 Josh Allen247.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 7/10 over
16	QB pass yards / attempt	7.04	+0.3%
No lean at 16 of 32 Josh Allen247.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 7/10 over
18	Rush success rate	41.1%	−0.4 pp
No lean at 18 of 32 James Cook III83.5 Rush Yardso −110 · u −113L10 5/10 over Josh Allen35.5 Rush Yardso −113 · u −111L10 3/10 over Ray Davis4.5 Rush Yardso −110 · u −110L10 1/10 over Ty Johnson2.5 Rush Yardso −110 · u −120L10 8/10 over
19	QB completion rate	63.8%	−0.5 pp
No lean at 19 of 32 Josh Allen20.5 Completionso −105 · u −113L10 5/10 over
20	RB yards / carry	4.18	−3.6%
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu83.5 Rush Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Ray Davisu4.5 Rush Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 9/10 Ty Johnsonu2.5 Rush Yards−120 bet365L10 2/10
20	RB rushing EPA / play	−0.079	−0.03
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu83.5 Rush Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Ray Davisu4.5 Rush Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 9/10 Ty Johnsonu2.5 Rush Yards−120 bet365L10 2/10
23	Rec yards / game · TE	46.7	−12.4%
Supports UNDER Dalton Kincaidu45.5 Rec Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 6/10 Dawson Knoxu7.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L10 5/10
24	Receptions / game · TE	4.9	−7.1%
Supports UNDER Dalton Kincaidu3.5 Receptions+110 betPARXL10 6/10 Dawson Knoxu1.5 Receptions−186 DraftKingsL10 4/10
26	RB rush yards / game	82.1	−13.5%
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu83.5 Rush Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Ray Davisu4.5 Rush Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 9/10 Ty Johnsonu2.5 Rush Yards−120 bet365L10 2/10
T26	Touchdowns / game · TE	0.29	−33.6%
T28	RB carries / game	19.6	−10.1%
Supports UNDER James Cook IIIu18.5 Rushing Attempts−115 DraftKingsL10 4/10 Ray Davisu1.5 Rushing Attempts+120 bet365L10 8/10 Ty Johnsonu0.5 Rushing Attempts+172 bet365L10 2/10
31	Target share · TE	19.0%	−4.9 pp
Supports UNDER Dalton Kincaidu3.5 Receptions+110 betPARXL10 6/10 Dawson Knoxu1.5 Receptions−186 DraftKingsL10 4/10 Dalton Kincaidu45.5 Rec Yards−110 Hard Rock BetL10 6/10 Dawson Knoxu7.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L10 5/10