The 4 plays the model liked best out of 29 lines on today's board. Each one carries the price and the book it is at, the last ten games behind it, and the reason it is on the card, so you can judge it for yourself before you bet.
Xander BogaertsOver 0.5 Total BasesSan Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
-118BetOnline
BetOnline-118ProphetX-124Pinnacle-129Fanatics-130Caesars-136theScore Bet-140BetMGM-140Fliff-150bet365-1559 books · -118 to -155
season58%156 games
last 1080%
with 50% boost+127
Xander Bogaerts has gone over 0.5 total bases in 58% of his 156 games this season, and in 8 of his last 10.
He faces Logan Henderson.
2
Fernando Tatis Jr.Over 1.5 Total BasesSan Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
+142ProphetX
ProphetX+142NoVig+141bet365+135Fanatics+130Bovada+130DraftKings+126theScore Bet+125Hard Rock+125BetOnline+124Pinnacle+124Caesars+119Fliff+115BetMGM+115BetRivers-103betPARX-103Bally Bet-103FanDuel-11017 books · +142 to -110
season46%162 games
last 1060%
with 50% boost+213
Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone over 1.5 total bases in 46% of his 162 games this season, and in 6 of his last 10.
He faces Logan Henderson.
Jr. also has his hard-hit rate in the 97th percentile of qualified regulars.
3
Austin RileyOver 0.5 HitsAtlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
+100BetMGM
BetMGM+100ProphetX-104NoVig-108theScore Bet-110Hard Rock-110Caesars-113Fanatics-115DraftKings-115BetOnline-119bet365-120Bally Bet-125betPARX-125BetRivers-125Fliff-125FanDuel-135Bovada-14116 books · +100 to -141
season53%163 games
last 1050%
with 50% boost+150
Austin Riley has gone over 0.5 hits in 53% of his 163 games this season, and in 5 of his last 10.
He faces Blake Snell.
Riley also has his hard-hit rate in the 77th percentile of qualified regulars.
4
Shohei OhtaniUnder 1.5 Total BasesAtlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
-147NoVig
NoVig-147ProphetX-150Pinnacle-153bet365-155Caesars-162theScore Bet-165Hard Rock-165BetMGM-175BetOnline-179Fliff-18510 books · -147 to -185
season57%136 games
last 1090%
with 50% boost+102
Shohei Ohtani has gone under 1.5 total bases in 57% of his 136 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.
Against it: his last 10 (90%) is far off his season rate (57%), so this leans on a streak holding; he has his hard-hit rate in the 97th percentile of qualified regulars.
What has to be true before the model posts a play
A real history behind it. At least 20 games logged, so a hot week cannot masquerade as a trend.
Something you can actually bet. Between -250 and +700, because a 40-to-1 shot with a great number on it is still a 40-to-1 shot.
Prices are the ones on the board when the card was posted. They move. Check yours before you bet.
Trend leans
Every line on the slate where recent form runs furthest from the price, graded. These are not picks and they are not part of the card's published record. A lean, not a probability.
These are historical-rate reads. No park, weather, or lineup-spot adjustment is applied yet.
Retail prices carry roughly 7% vig on props, so almost every line here prices worse than the market's fair number. Shopping the price across books is what narrows it.
This card is forward-tested in public and every settled result is on the results page. The sample is still early, so treat it as research rather than a signal.
built Oct 4, 10:00 AM · selection and wording are generated from the data, not written by hand
Sunday, October 4
The Boosts
These are the profit boosts we are on today, filled by hand at the book: the price before and after, the form behind the prop, and the reason it is here.