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Carson Kelly
CHCbats R9th in the order · projectedChicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins7:10 PMloanDepot park
facingJanson Junk4.11 ERA · 6.12 K/9 · 1.30 WHIP · 103.0 IPRHP · HR/PA allowed 2.8% (league avg 2.9%) · barrel% allowed 7.2% (league avg 7.4%)
Kelly at the plateHR/PA 2.7%barrel rate 5.5%hard-hit% 36.5%
Home Runs
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
HR/PA allowed2.8%3.7%
48th percentileleague avg 2.9%436 batters facedvs RHB · 76th pctseason 2.8% (48th)162 batters facedneutralsupports OVER
barrel% allowed7.2%7.0%
47th percentileleague avg 7.4%436 batters facedvs RHB · 44th pctseason 7.2% (47th)128 batted ballsneutralneutral
hard-hit% allowed39.6%32.8%
62nd percentileleague avg 38.2%436 batters facedvs RHB · 14th pctseason 39.6% (62nd)128 batted ballssupports OVERsupports UNDER
fly-ball% allowed22.2%27.3%
19th percentileleague avg 26.7%436 batters facedvs RHB · 57th pctseason 22.2% (19th)128 batted ballssupports UNDERneutral
xSLG against.411.381
68th percentileleague avg .386435 batters facedvs RHB · 48th pctseason .411 (68th)150 at-batssupports OVERneutral
The ArmJanson Junk: home runs allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | HR | HR/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 6 | 3.7% |
| vs LHB | 274 | 6 | 2.2% |
| at home ● | 245 | 6 | 2.4% |
| on the road | 190 | 6 | 3.2% |
| season | 435 | 12 | 2.8% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
HR/PA2.7%1.7%
45th percentileleague avg 3.0%372 PAvs RHP · 18th pctseason 2.7% (45th)242 PAneutralsupports UNDER
barrel rate5.5%2.8%
32nd percentileleague avg 7.8%372 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 5.5% (32nd)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit%36.5%32.4%
36th percentileleague avg 39.0%372 PAvs RHP · 19th pctseason 36.5% (36th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
fly-ball%25.1%22.4%
39th percentileleague avg 26.7%372 PAvs RHP · 24th pctseason 25.1% (39th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xSLG.380.340
50th percentileleague avg .386372 PAvs RHP · 25th pctseason .380 (50th)216 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
xISO.137.102
48th percentileleague avg .146372 PAvs RHP · 21st pctseason .137 (48th)216 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
avg exit velo87.3 mph85.8 mph
38th percentileleague avg 88.0 mph372 PAvs RHP · 22nd pctseason 87.3 mph (38th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Home Runs by split
| G | PA | HR | HR/PA | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 229 | 6 | 2.6% | .363 | 9% (6/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 4 | 2.8% | .441 | 12% (4/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 186 | 5 | 2.7% | .369 | 10% (5/49) |
| at home | 50 | 186 | 5 | 2.7% | .417 | 10% (5/50) |
| season | 99 | 372 | 10 | 2.7% | .393 | 10% (10/99) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | HR/PA | BBE | barrel | xSLG | xISO | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 242 | 1.7% | 179 | 2.8% | .340 | .102 | 85.8 |
| vs LHP | 130 | 4.6% | 92 | 10.9% | .455 | .200 | 90.2 |
| on the road ● | 186 | 2.7% | 139 | 5.8% | .366 | .139 | 87.0 |
| at home | 186 | 2.7% | 132 | 5.3% | .394 | .133 | 87.6 |
| season | 372 | 2.7% | 271 | 5.5% | .380 | .136 | 87.3 |
0.5line
OVER+852NoVigfair +779 · +8.3% vs fair
30% boost+1108+37.7% vs market · +22% vs season50% boost+1278+57.1% vs market · +39.2% vs season
UNDER-1695Flifffair -832 · -5.5% vs fair
30% boost-1304-3.9% vs market · -3.2% vs season50% boost-1130-2.8% vs market · -2.1% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 0%over rate
OVER+13000Bally Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+16900no market fair50% boost+19500no market fair
Total Bases
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xSLG against.411.381
68th percentileleague avg .386435 batters facedvs RHB · 48th pctseason .411 (68th)150 at-batssupports OVERneutral
xBA against.259.226
74th percentileleague avg .239435 batters facedvs RHB · 31st pctseason .259 (74th)150 at-batssupports OVERsupports UNDER
AVG against.266.208
league avg .244+.022 vs league20 startsvs RHBseason .266161 batters facedneutralneutral
hard-hit% allowed39.6%32.8%
62nd percentileleague avg 38.2%436 batters facedvs RHB · 14th pctseason 39.6% (62nd)128 batted ballssupports OVERsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed7.2%7.0%
47th percentileleague avg 7.4%436 batters facedvs RHB · 44th pctseason 7.2% (47th)128 batted ballsneutralneutral
The ArmJanson Junk: total bases allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | TB | TB/BF | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 54 | 0.34 | .362 |
| vs LHB | 274 | 113 | 0.41 | .452 |
| at home ● | 245 | 85 | 0.35 | .373 |
| on the road | 190 | 82 | 0.43 | .480 |
| season | 435 | 167 | 0.38 | .419 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
xSLG.380.340
50th percentileleague avg .386372 PAvs RHP · 25th pctseason .380 (50th)216 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
SLG.393.324
40th percentileleague avg .400372 PAvs RHP · 7th pctseason .393 (40th)242 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xBA.243.237
50th percentileleague avg .240372 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .243 (50th)216 at-batsneutralneutral
AVG.263.236
69th percentileleague avg .244372 PAvs RHP · 33rd pctseason .263 (69th)242 PAsupports OVERsupports UNDER
xISO.137.102
48th percentileleague avg .146372 PAvs RHP · 21st pctseason .137 (48th)216 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
hard-hit%36.5%32.4%
36th percentileleague avg 39.0%372 PAvs RHP · 19th pctseason 36.5% (36th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel rate5.5%2.8%
32nd percentileleague avg 7.8%372 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 5.5% (32nd)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive%21.8%22.9%
29th percentileleague avg 23.6%372 PAvs RHP · 42nd pctseason 21.8% (29th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERneutral
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Total Bases by split
| G | PA | TB | TB/G | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 229 | 74 | 1.14 | .363 | 57% (37/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 56 | 1.65 | .441 | 71% (24/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 186 | 62 | 1.27 | .369 | 59% (29/49) |
| at home | 50 | 186 | 68 | 1.36 | .417 | 64% (32/50) |
| season | 99 | 372 | 130 | 1.31 | .393 | 62% (61/99) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | TB/PA | BBE | xSLG | xISO | barrel | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 242 | 28.9% | 179 | .340 | .102 | 2.8% | 85.8 |
| vs LHP | 130 | 46.2% | 92 | .455 | .200 | 10.9% | 90.2 |
| on the road ● | 186 | 33.3% | 139 | .366 | .139 | 5.8% | 87.0 |
| at home | 186 | 36.6% | 132 | .394 | .133 | 5.3% | 87.6 |
| season | 372 | 34.9% | 271 | .380 | .136 | 5.5% | 87.3 |
0.5line
OVER-146ProphetXfair -137 · -2.6% vs fair
30% boost-112+9.3% vs market · +16.5% vs season50% boost+103+17.2% vs market · +24.9% vs season
UNDER+125BetMGMfair +134 · -3.9% vs fair
30% boost+162+12.1% vs market · +0.8% vs season50% boost+188+22.8% vs market · +10.4% vs season
1.5lineL5 40%L10 40%L20 40%SZN 34%over rate
OVER+195BetMGMpooled fair +206
30% boost+254pooled fair50% boost+292pooled fair
UNDER-250theScore Betfair -206 · -5.7% vs fair
30% boost-192+2.3% vs market · -0.2% vs season50% boost-167+7.7% vs market · +5.1% vs season
2.5lineL5 40%L10 30%L20 25%SZN 16%over rate
OVER+450theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+585no market fair50% boost+675no market fair
3.5lineL5 40%L10 30%L20 20%SZN 12%over rate
OVER+625BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+812no market fair50% boost+938no market fair
4.5lineL5 40%L10 20%L20 10%SZN 5%over rate
OVER+1320DraftKingsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1716no market fair50% boost+1980no market fair
5.5lineL5 40%L10 20%L20 10%SZN 2%over rate
OVER+2200Fanaticsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+2860no market fair50% boost+3300no market fair
Hits
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.259.226
74th percentileleague avg .239435 batters facedvs RHB · 31st pctseason .259 (74th)150 at-batssupports OVERsupports UNDER
AVG against.266.208
league avg .244+.022 vs league20 startsvs RHBseason .266161 batters facedneutralneutral
K%16.1%13.6%
8th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%435 batters facedvs RHB · 2nd pctseason 16.1% (8th)162 batters facedsupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%15.3%13.9%
2nd percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%435 batters facedvs RHB · 0th pctseason 15.3% (2nd)287 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
The ArmJanson Junk: hits allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | H/BF | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 31 | 19.3% | .208 |
| vs LHB | 274 | 75 | 27.4% | .300 |
| at home ● | 245 | 55 | 22.4% | .241 |
| on the road | 190 | 51 | 26.8% | .298 |
| season | 435 | 106 | 24.4% | .266 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
xBA.243.237
50th percentileleague avg .240372 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .243 (50th)216 at-batsneutralneutral
AVG.263.236
69th percentileleague avg .244372 PAvs RHP · 33rd pctseason .263 (69th)242 PAsupports OVERsupports UNDER
zone contact%90.4%90.9%
90th percentile for contact in the zoneleague avg 83.9%372 PAvs RHP · 92nd pctseason 90.4% (90th)276 in-zone swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%19.4%17.9%
19th percentile for swing-and-missleague avg 25.2%372 PAvs RHP · 13th pctseason 19.4% (19th)390 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
K%16.1%15.3%
15th percentile for strikeout rateleague avg 22.5%372 PAvs RHP · 13th pctseason 16.1% (15th)242 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
line-drive%21.8%22.9%
29th percentileleague avg 23.6%372 PAvs RHP · 42nd pctseason 21.8% (29th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERneutral
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Hits by split
| G | AB | H | AVG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 204 | 50 | .245 | 57% (37/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 127 | 37 | .291 | 71% (24/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 168 | 39 | .232 | 59% (29/49) |
| at home | 50 | 163 | 48 | .294 | 64% (32/50) |
| season | 99 | 331 | 87 | .263 | 62% (61/99) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | H/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 242 | 21.1% | 179 | .237 | 22.9% | 30.2% |
| vs LHP | 130 | 27.7% | 92 | .255 | 19.6% | 34.8% |
| on the road ● | 186 | 21.0% | 139 | .227 | 16.6% | 28.8% |
| at home | 186 | 25.8% | 132 | .260 | 27.3% | 34.8% |
| season | 372 | 23.4% | 271 | — | 21.8% | 31.7% |
0.5line
OVER-148ProphetXfair -136 · -3.5% vs fair
30% boost-114+8.2% vs market · +15.7% vs season50% boost+101+16% vs market · +24.1% vs season
UNDER+128betPARXfair +136 · -3.2% vs fair
30% boost+166+13.2% vs market · +2.3% vs season50% boost+192+24.1% vs market · +12.1% vs season
1.5lineL5 40%L10 30%L20 20%SZN 22%over rate
OVER+390Bovadamarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+507no market fair50% boost+585no market fair
UNDER-600theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-462no market fair50% boost-400no market fair
2.5lineL5 20%L10 10%L20 10%SZN 4%over rate
OVER+2000theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+2600no market fair50% boost+3000no market fair
3.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 0%over rate
OVER+4500BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+5850no market fair50% boost+6750no market fair
H+R+RBI
99 games loggedline1.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.259.226
74th percentileleague avg .239435 batters facedvs RHB · 31st pctseason .259 (74th)150 at-batssupports OVERsupports UNDER
xERA4.27—
no split for this stat59th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16435 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
xSLG against.411.381
68th percentileleague avg .386435 batters facedvs RHB · 48th pctseason .411 (68th)150 at-batssupports OVERneutral
BB%6.4%4.9%
18th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.6%435 batters facedvs RHB · 3rd pctseason 6.4% (18th)162 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
K%16.1%13.6%
8th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%435 batters facedvs RHB · 2nd pctseason 16.1% (8th)162 batters facedsupports OVERsupports OVER
The ArmJanson Junk: h+r+rbi allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | TB | OBP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 31 | 54 | .256 |
| vs LHB | 274 | 75 | 113 | .352 |
| at home ● | 245 | 55 | 85 | .286 |
| on the road | 190 | 51 | 82 | .356 |
| season | 435 | 106 | 167 | — |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
H+R+RBI per game1.921.77
66th percentileleague avg 1.7599 gamesvs RHP · 49th pctseason 1.92 (66th)65 gamessupports OVERneutral
xwOBA.315—
no split for this stat57th percentileleague avg .310372 PAno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
xBA.243.237
50th percentileleague avg .240372 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .243 (50th)216 at-batsneutralneutral
SLG.393.324
40th percentileleague avg .400372 PAvs RHP · 7th pctseason .393 (40th)242 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: H+R+RBI by split
| G | PA | H | R | RBI | H+R+RBI/G | over 1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 229 | 50 | 30 | 35 | 1.77 | 46% (30/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 37 | 21 | 17 | 2.21 | 56% (19/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 186 | 39 | 25 | 20 | 1.71 | 47% (23/49) |
| at home | 50 | 186 | 48 | 26 | 32 | 2.12 | 52% (26/50) |
| season | 99 | 372 | 87 | 51 | 52 | 1.92 | 49% (49/99) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | H/PA | BBE | xBA | xSLG | barrel | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 242 | 21.1% | 179 | .237 | .340 | 2.8% | 85.8 |
| vs LHP | 130 | 27.7% | 92 | .255 | .455 | 10.9% | 90.2 |
| on the road ● | 186 | 21.0% | 139 | .227 | .366 | 5.8% | 87.0 |
| at home | 186 | 25.8% | 132 | .260 | .394 | 5.3% | 87.6 |
| season | 372 | 23.4% | 271 | — | .380 | 5.5% | 87.3 |
1.5line
OVER+122ProphetXfair +129 · -3.1% vs fair
30% boost+159+12.7% vs market · +28% vs season50% boost+183+23.4% vs market · +40.1% vs season
UNDER-140theScore Betfair -129 · -3.4% vs fair
30% boost-108+8.8% vs market · -2.6% vs season50% boost+107+16.8% vs market · +4.6% vs season
RBIs
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xERA4.27—
no split for this stat59th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16435 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
xSLG against.411.381
68th percentileleague avg .386435 batters facedvs RHB · 48th pctseason .411 (68th)150 at-batssupports OVERneutral
barrel% allowed7.2%7.0%
47th percentileleague avg 7.4%436 batters facedvs RHB · 44th pctseason 7.2% (47th)128 batted ballsneutralneutral
BB%6.4%4.9%
18th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.6%435 batters facedvs RHB · 3rd pctseason 6.4% (18th)162 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmJanson Junk: rbis allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | HR | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 31 | 6 | .362 |
| vs LHB | 274 | 75 | 6 | .452 |
| at home ● | 245 | 55 | 6 | .373 |
| on the road | 190 | 51 | 6 | .480 |
| season | 435 | 106 | 12 | .419 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
RBI per game0.530.54
75th percentileleague avg 0.4599 gamesvs RHP · 75th pctseason 0.53 (75th)65 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
xSLG.380.340
50th percentileleague avg .386372 PAvs RHP · 25th pctseason .380 (50th)216 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
hard-hit%36.5%32.4%
36th percentileleague avg 39.0%372 PAvs RHP · 19th pctseason 36.5% (36th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel rate5.5%2.8%
32nd percentileleague avg 7.8%372 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 5.5% (32nd)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: RBIs by split
| G | PA | RBI | RBI/G | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 229 | 35 | 0.54 | .363 | 29% (19/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 17 | 0.50 | .441 | 29% (10/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 186 | 20 | 0.41 | .369 | 27% (13/49) |
| at home | 50 | 186 | 32 | 0.64 | .417 | 32% (16/50) |
| season | 99 | 372 | 52 | 0.53 | .393 | 29% (29/99) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | RBI/PA | BBE | xSLG | barrel | hard hit | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 242 | 11.6% | 179 | .340 | 2.8% | 32.4% | 85.8 |
| vs LHP | 130 | 18.5% | 92 | .455 | 10.9% | 44.6% | 90.2 |
| on the road ● | 186 | 10.8% | 139 | .366 | 5.8% | 32.4% | 87.0 |
| at home | 186 | 17.2% | 132 | .394 | 5.3% | 40.9% | 87.6 |
| season | 372 | — | 271 | .380 | 5.5% | 36.5% | 87.3 |
0.5line
OVER+251NoVigfair +251 · 0% vs fair
30% boost+326+21.5% vs market · +24.9% vs season50% boost+376+35.8% vs market · +39.6% vs season
UNDER-300BetMGMfair -260 · -3.7% vs fair
30% boost-231+3.5% vs market · +1.3% vs season50% boost-200+8.3% vs market · +6.1% vs season
1.5lineL5 40%L10 20%L20 20%SZN 12%over rate
OVER+800Caesarsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1040no market fair50% boost+1200no market fair
UNDER-1800theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-1385no market fair50% boost-1200no market fair
2.5lineL5 20%L10 10%L20 10%SZN 6%over rate
OVER+2000Fanaticsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+2600no market fair50% boost+3000no market fair
3.5lineL5 20%L10 10%L20 5%SZN 3%over rate
OVER+4000BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+5200no market fair50% boost+6000no market fair
4.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 1%over rate
OVER+6000BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+7800no market fair50% boost+9000no market fair
Runs
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xERA4.27—
no split for this stat59th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16435 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
xBA against.259.226
74th percentileleague avg .239435 batters facedvs RHB · 31st pctseason .259 (74th)150 at-batssupports OVERsupports UNDER
BB%6.4%4.9%
18th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.6%435 batters facedvs RHB · 3rd pctseason 6.4% (18th)162 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmJanson Junk: runs allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | BB | OBP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 31 | 8 | .256 |
| vs LHB | 274 | 75 | 20 | .352 |
| at home ● | 245 | 55 | 12 | .286 |
| on the road | 190 | 51 | 16 | .356 |
| season | 435 | 106 | 28 | — |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
runs per game0.520.46
69th percentileleague avg 0.4699 gamesvs RHP · 51st pctseason 0.52 (69th)65 gamessupports OVERneutral
xwOBA.315—
no split for this stat57th percentileleague avg .310372 PAno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
sprint speed25.8—
no split for this stat13th percentileleague avg 27.4372 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xBA.243.237
50th percentileleague avg .240372 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .243 (50th)216 at-batsneutralneutral
BB%10.2%9.5%
68th percentileleague avg 8.7%372 PAvs RHP · 60th pctseason 10.2% (68th)242 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Runs by split
| G | PA | R | R/G | OBP | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 229 | 30 | 0.46 | .328 | 37% (24/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 21 | 0.62 | .371 | 47% (16/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 186 | 25 | 0.51 | .306 | 41% (20/49) |
| at home | 50 | 186 | 26 | 0.52 | .382 | 40% (20/50) |
| season | 99 | 372 | 51 | 0.52 | .344 | 40% (40/99) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | R/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 242 | — | 179 | .237 | 22.9% | 30.2% | 85.8 |
| vs LHP | 130 | — | 92 | .255 | 19.6% | 34.8% | 90.2 |
| on the road ● | 186 | 13.4% | 139 | .227 | 16.6% | 28.8% | 87.0 |
| at home | 186 | 14.0% | 132 | .260 | 27.3% | 34.8% | 87.6 |
| season | 372 | — | 271 | — | 21.8% | 31.7% | 87.3 |
0.5line
OVER+156ProphetXfair +166 · -3.8% vs fair
30% boost+203+13.9% vs market · +22.3% vs season50% boost+234+25.6% vs market · +34.9% vs season
UNDER-190theScore Betfair -171 · -3.7% vs fair
30% boost-146+6.3% vs market · +0.4% vs season50% boost-127+12.9% vs market · +6.6% vs season
1.5lineL5 20%L10 10%L20 5%SZN 8%over rate
OVER+1000theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1300no market fair50% boost+1500no market fair
UNDER-3000theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-2308no market fair50% boost-2000no market fair
Doubles
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xSLG against.411.381
68th percentileleague avg .386435 batters facedvs RHB · 48th pctseason .411 (68th)150 at-batssupports OVERneutral
hard-hit% allowed39.6%32.8%
62nd percentileleague avg 38.2%436 batters facedvs RHB · 14th pctseason 39.6% (62nd)128 batted ballssupports OVERsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed7.2%7.0%
47th percentileleague avg 7.4%436 batters facedvs RHB · 44th pctseason 7.2% (47th)128 batted ballsneutralneutral
line-drive% allowed20.4%—
no comparison availableno split for this stat435 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
The ArmJanson Junk: doubles allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | 2B | 2B/BF | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 5 | 3.1% | .362 |
| vs LHB | 274 | 16 | 5.8% | .452 |
| at home ● | 245 | 10 | 4.1% | .373 |
| on the road | 190 | 11 | 5.8% | .480 |
| season | 435 | 21 | 4.8% | .419 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
2B/PA3.5%2.9%
32nd percentileleague avg 4.1%372 PAvs RHP · 17th pctseason 3.5% (32nd)242 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xSLG.380.340
50th percentileleague avg .386372 PAvs RHP · 25th pctseason .380 (50th)216 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
xISO.137.102
48th percentileleague avg .146372 PAvs RHP · 21st pctseason .137 (48th)216 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
line-drive%21.8%22.9%
29th percentileleague avg 23.6%372 PAvs RHP · 42nd pctseason 21.8% (29th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERneutral
sweet-spot%31.7%30.2%
18th percentileleague avg 35.3%372 PAvs RHP · 12th pctseason 31.7% (18th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
sprint speed25.8—
no split for this stat13th percentileleague avg 27.4372 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Doubles by split
| G | PA | 2B | 2B/PA | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 229 | 6 | 2.6% | .363 | 9% (6/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 7 | 4.9% | .441 | 21% (7/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 186 | 8 | 4.3% | .369 | 16% (8/49) |
| at home | 50 | 186 | 5 | 2.7% | .417 | 10% (5/50) |
| season | 99 | 372 | 13 | 3.5% | .393 | 13% (13/99) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | 2B/PA | BBE | xSLG | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 242 | 2.9% | 179 | .340 | 22.9% | 30.2% |
| vs LHP | 130 | 4.6% | 92 | .455 | 19.6% | 34.8% |
| on the road ● | 186 | 4.3% | 139 | .366 | 16.6% | 28.8% |
| at home | 186 | 2.7% | 132 | .394 | 27.3% | 34.8% |
| season | 372 | 3.5% | 271 | .380 | 21.8% | 31.7% |
0.5line
OVER+502DraftKingsfair +525 · -3.7% vs fair
30% boost+653+20.4% vs market · -1.2% vs season50% boost+753+36.5% vs market · +12% vs season
UNDER-800BetMGMfair -536 · -5.2% vs fair
30% boost-615-2% vs market · +1% vs season50% boost-533+0.1% vs market · +3.2% vs season
Singles
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.259.226
74th percentileleague avg .239435 batters facedvs RHB · 31st pctseason .259 (74th)150 at-batssupports OVERsupports UNDER
K%16.1%13.6%
8th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%435 batters facedvs RHB · 2nd pctseason 16.1% (8th)162 batters facedsupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%15.3%13.9%
2nd percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%435 batters facedvs RHB · 0th pctseason 15.3% (2nd)287 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
The ArmJanson Junk: singles allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | 1B | 1B/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 20 | 12.4% |
| vs LHB | 274 | 51 | 18.6% |
| at home ● | 245 | 38 | 15.5% |
| on the road | 190 | 33 | 17.4% |
| season | 435 | 71 | 16.3% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
xBA.243.237
50th percentileleague avg .240372 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .243 (50th)216 at-batsneutralneutral
zone contact%90.4%90.9%
90th percentile for contact in the zoneleague avg 83.9%372 PAvs RHP · 92nd pctseason 90.4% (90th)276 in-zone swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%19.4%17.9%
19th percentile for swing-and-missleague avg 25.2%372 PAvs RHP · 13th pctseason 19.4% (19th)390 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
line-drive%21.8%22.9%
29th percentileleague avg 23.6%372 PAvs RHP · 42nd pctseason 21.8% (29th)179 batted ballssupports UNDERneutral
sprint speed25.8—
no split for this stat13th percentileleague avg 27.4372 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Singles by split
| G | AB | 1B | AVG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 204 | 38 | .245 | 46% (30/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 127 | 26 | .291 | 53% (18/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 168 | 26 | .232 | 41% (20/49) |
| at home | 50 | 163 | 38 | .294 | 56% (28/50) |
| season | 99 | 331 | 64 | .263 | 48% (48/99) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | 1B/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 242 | 16.5% | 179 | .237 | 22.9% | 30.2% |
| vs LHP | 130 | 18.5% | 92 | .255 | 19.6% | 34.8% |
| on the road ● | 186 | 14.0% | 139 | .227 | 16.6% | 28.8% |
| at home | 186 | 20.4% | 132 | .260 | 27.3% | 34.8% |
| season | 372 | 17.2% | 271 | — | 21.8% | 31.7% |
0.5line
OVER+111DraftKingsfair +122 · -4.9% vs fair
30% boost+144+10.2% vs market · +18.4% vs season50% boost+167+20.2% vs market · +29.2% vs season
UNDER-125BetMGMfair -127 · +0.5% vs fair
30% boost+104+14% vs market · +5.1% vs season50% boost+120+23% vs market · +13.3% vs season
1.5lineL5 20%L10 20%L20 15%SZN 15%over rate
OVER+700theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+910no market fair50% boost+1050no market fair
UNDER-1400theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-1077no market fair50% boost-933no market fair
Walks
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
BB%6.4%4.9%
18th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.6%435 batters facedvs RHB · 3rd pctseason 6.4% (18th)162 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
first-pitch strike%62.1%61.7%
53rd percentile for first-pitch strikesleague avg 61.9%435 batters facedvs RHB · 49th pctseason 62.1% (53rd)162 first pitchesneutralneutral
BB/92.51.7
league avg 3.4-1.0 vs league20 startsvs RHBseason 2.5161 batters facedneutralneutral
The ArmJanson Junk: walks allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | BB | BB/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 161 | 8 | 5.0% |
| vs LHB | 274 | 20 | 7.3% |
| at home ● | 245 | 12 | 4.9% |
| on the road | 190 | 16 | 8.4% |
| season | 435 | 28 | 6.4% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Janson Junkfirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
BB%10.2%9.5%
68th percentileleague avg 8.7%372 PAvs RHP · 60th pctseason 10.2% (68th)242 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
chase rate24.7%23.4%
17th percentile for chasing out of the zoneleague avg 30.7%372 PAvs RHP · 12th pctseason 24.7% (17th)487 pitches outside the zonesupports OVERsupports OVER
zone swing%66.4%63.9%
league avg 66.8%-0.4% vs league372 PAvs RHPseason 66.4%432 in-zone pitchesneutralneutral
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Walks by split
| G | PA | BB | BB% | OBP | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 229 | 23 | 10.0% | .328 | 29% (19/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 15 | 10.5% | .371 | 38% (13/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 186 | 17 | 9.1% | .306 | 33% (16/49) |
| at home | 50 | 186 | 21 | 11.3% | .382 | 32% (16/50) |
| season | 99 | 372 | 38 | 10.2% | .344 | 32% (32/99) |
● tonight's split
0.5line
OVER+275Hard Rockfair +293 · -4.6% vs fair
30% boost+358+16.2% vs market · +47.9% vs season50% boost+412+30.2% vs market · +65.7% vs season
UNDER-392DraftKingsfair -297 · -6.1% vs fair
30% boost-302-0.4% vs market · -9.9% vs season50% boost-261+3.4% vs market · -6.4% vs season
Stolen Bases
99 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Janson Junk Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
SB rate allowed0.6%—
no split for this stat35th percentile for steals allowed per chanceleague avg 1.0%3 of 509 opportunitiesno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
runners test him1.0%—
no split for this stat41st percentile for runners going per chanceleague avg 1.3%5 of 509 opportunitiesno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
SB allowed3—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
runners caught2—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
pickoffs0—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
sprint speed25.8—
no split for this stat13th percentileleague avg 27.4372 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
SB per game0.000.00
7th percentileleague avg 0.0799 gamesvs RHP · 7th pctseason 0.00 (7th)65 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xBA.243.237
50th percentileleague avg .240372 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .243 (50th)216 at-batsneutralneutral
BB%10.2%9.5%
68th percentileleague avg 8.7%372 PAvs RHP · 60th pctseason 10.2% (68th)242 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Stolen Bases by split
| G | PA | SB | SB/G | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 65 | 229 | 0 | 0.00 | 0% (0/65) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 0 | 0.00 | 0% (0/34) |
| on the road ● | 49 | 186 | 0 | 0.00 | 0% (0/49) |
| at home | 50 | 186 | 0 | 0.00 | 0% (0/50) |
| season | 99 | 372 | 0 | 0.00 | 0% (0/99) |
● tonight's split
0.5line
OVER+3000Hard Rockmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+3900no market fair50% boost+4500no market fair
Hitters on the prop boardChicago Cubs @ Miami Marlinssorted by the focused market, not batting order
odds snapshot · feeds refreshed 1:00 PM ET · not live pricing