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Trevor Story
BOSbats R8th in the order · projectedBoston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles7:06 PMOriole Park at Camden Yards
facingShane Baz4.01 ERA · 7.97 K/9 · 1.35 WHIP · 157.0 IPRHP · HR/PA allowed 1.6% (league avg 2.9%) · barrel% allowed 6.4% (league avg 7.4%)
Story at the plateHR/PA 1.6%barrel rate 4.9%hard-hit% 40.2%
Home Runs
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
HR/PA allowed1.6%1.4%
17th percentileleague avg 2.9%671 batters facedvs RHB · 12th pctseason 1.6% (17th)277 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed6.4%5.4%
34th percentileleague avg 7.4%671 batters facedvs RHB · 21st pctseason 6.4% (34th)203 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit% allowed41.8%40.9%
74th percentileleague avg 38.2%671 batters facedvs RHB · 68th pctseason 41.8% (74th)203 batted ballssupports OVERsupports OVER
fly-ball% allowed26.3%22.2%
48th percentileleague avg 26.7%671 batters facedvs RHB · 19th pctseason 26.3% (48th)203 batted ballsneutralsupports UNDER
xSLG against.388.370
51st percentileleague avg .386669 batters facedvs RHB · 40th pctseason .388 (51st)255 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
The ArmShane Baz: home runs allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | HR | HR/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 4 | 1.4% |
| vs LHB | 393 | 7 | 1.8% |
| at home ● | 311 | 4 | 1.3% |
| on the road | 358 | 7 | 2.0% |
| season | 669 | 11 | 1.6% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career0 home runs in 12 AB (.250), across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
HR/PA1.6%2.1%
17th percentileleague avg 3.0%192 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason 1.6% (17th)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel rate4.9%5.4%
26th percentileleague avg 7.8%192 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason 4.9% (26th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit%40.2%41.3%
54th percentileleague avg 39.0%192 PAvs RHP · 61st pctseason 40.2% (54th)92 batted ballsneutralsupports OVER
fly-ball%22.9%22.8%
27th percentileleague avg 26.7%192 PAvs RHP · 27th pctseason 22.9% (27th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xSLG.318.310
15th percentileleague avg .386192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .318 (15th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xISO.105.111
24th percentileleague avg .146192 PAvs RHP · 28th pctseason .105 (24th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
avg exit velo87.8 mph87.9 mph
44th percentileleague avg 88.0 mph192 PAvs RHP · 45th pctseason 87.8 mph (44th)92 batted ballsneutralneutral
The MatchupTrevor Story: Home Runs by split
| G | PA | HR | HR/PA | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 147 | 3 | 2.0% | .371 | 9% (3/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 45 | 0 | 0.0% | .220 | 0% (0/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 94 | 2 | 2.1% | .360 | 10% (2/21) |
| at home | 24 | 98 | 1 | 1.0% | .315 | 4% (1/24) |
| season | 45 | 192 | 3 | 1.6% | .337 | 7% (3/45) |
● tonight's split
The BatTrevor Story: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | HR/PA | BBE | barrel | xSLG | xISO | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 143 | 2.1% | 92 | 5.4% | .310 | .111 | 87.9 |
| vs LHP | 49 | 0.0% | 30 | 3.3% | .327 | .082 | 87.8 |
| on the road ● | 94 | 2.1% | 59 | 5.1% | .340 | .115 | 90.5 |
| at home | 98 | 1.0% | 63 | 4.8% | .290 | .093 | 85.3 |
| season | 192 | 1.6% | 122 | 4.9% | .314 | .104 | 87.8 |
0.5line
OVER+669NoVigpooled fair +646
30% boost+870pooled fair50% boost+1004pooled fair
UNDER-1000bet365fair -646 · -4.7% vs fair
30% boost-769-2.1% vs market · +5.5% vs season50% boost-667-0.4% vs market · +7.3% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 0%over rate
OVER+12000Fanaticsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+15600no market fair50% boost+18000no market fair
Total Bases
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xSLG against.388.370
51st percentileleague avg .386669 batters facedvs RHB · 40th pctseason .388 (51st)255 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
xBA against.250.249
61st percentileleague avg .239669 batters facedvs RHB · 60th pctseason .250 (61st)255 at-batssupports OVERsupports OVER
AVG against.263.239
league avg .244+.019 vs league27 startsvs RHBseason .263276 batters facedneutralneutral
hard-hit% allowed41.8%40.9%
74th percentileleague avg 38.2%671 batters facedvs RHB · 68th pctseason 41.8% (74th)203 batted ballssupports OVERsupports OVER
barrel% allowed6.4%5.4%
34th percentileleague avg 7.4%671 batters facedvs RHB · 21st pctseason 6.4% (34th)203 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmShane Baz: total bases allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | TB | TB/BF | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 87 | 0.32 | .347 |
| vs LHB | 393 | 148 | 0.38 | .429 |
| at home ● | 311 | 115 | 0.37 | .406 |
| on the road | 358 | 120 | 0.34 | .383 |
| season | 669 | 235 | 0.35 | .394 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career4 total bases in 12 AB (.250), across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
xSLG.318.310
15th percentileleague avg .386192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .318 (15th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
SLG.337.346
11th percentileleague avg .400192 PAvs RHP · 12th pctseason .337 (11th)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xBA.213.200
16th percentileleague avg .240192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .213 (16th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
AVG.227.221
23rd percentileleague avg .244192 PAvs RHP · 17th pctseason .227 (23rd)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xISO.105.111
24th percentileleague avg .146192 PAvs RHP · 28th pctseason .105 (24th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit%40.2%41.3%
54th percentileleague avg 39.0%192 PAvs RHP · 61st pctseason 40.2% (54th)92 batted ballsneutralsupports OVER
barrel rate4.9%5.4%
26th percentileleague avg 7.8%192 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason 4.9% (26th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive%22.1%19.6%
34th percentileleague avg 23.6%192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 22.1% (34th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupTrevor Story: Total Bases by split
| G | PA | TB | TB/G | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 147 | 52 | 1.49 | .371 | 66% (23/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 45 | 9 | 0.90 | .220 | 80% (8/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 94 | 32 | 1.52 | .360 | 71% (15/21) |
| at home | 24 | 98 | 29 | 1.21 | .315 | 67% (16/24) |
| season | 45 | 192 | 61 | 1.36 | .337 | 69% (31/45) |
● tonight's split
The BatTrevor Story: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | TB/PA | BBE | xSLG | xISO | barrel | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 143 | 32.9% | 92 | .310 | .111 | 5.4% | 87.9 |
| vs LHP | 49 | 28.6% | 30 | .327 | .082 | 3.3% | 87.8 |
| on the road ● | 94 | 34.0% | 59 | .340 | .115 | 5.1% | 90.5 |
| at home | 98 | 29.6% | 63 | .290 | .093 | 4.8% | 85.3 |
| season | 192 | 31.8% | 122 | .314 | .104 | 4.9% | 87.8 |
0.5line
OVER-152ProphetXfair -138 · -3.9% vs fair
30% boost-117+7.6% vs market · +27.8% vs season50% boost-101+15.2% vs market · +36.9% vs season
UNDER+132ProphetXfair +138 · -2.5% vs fair
30% boost+172+14.1% vs market · -15.5% vs season50% boost+198+25.2% vs market · -7.3% vs season
1.5lineL5 80%L10 60%L20 45%SZN 33%over rate
OVER+185BetRiverspooled fair +184
30% boost+241pooled fair50% boost+278pooled fair
UNDER-217BetOnlinefair -188 · -4.6% vs fair
30% boost-167+4.4% vs market · +6.6% vs season50% boost-145+10.4% vs market · +12.7% vs season
2.5lineL5 60%L10 40%L20 20%SZN 16%over rate
OVER+390BetRiversmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+507no market fair50% boost+585no market fair
3.5lineL5 0%L10 10%L20 5%SZN 9%over rate
OVER+500Fanaticsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+650no market fair50% boost+750no market fair
4.5lineL5 0%L10 10%L20 5%SZN 7%over rate
OVER+1100DraftKingsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1430no market fair50% boost+1650no market fair
5.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 2%over rate
OVER+1700Fanaticsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+2210no market fair50% boost+2550no market fair
Hits
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.250.249
61st percentileleague avg .239669 batters facedvs RHB · 60th pctseason .250 (61st)255 at-batssupports OVERsupports OVER
AVG against.263.239
league avg .244+.019 vs league27 startsvs RHBseason .263276 batters facedneutralneutral
K%20.8%18.8%
38th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%669 batters facedvs RHB · 26th pctseason 20.8% (38th)277 batters facedsupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%22.6%22.8%
33rd percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%669 batters facedvs RHB · 34th pctseason 22.6% (33rd)500 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
The ArmShane Baz: hits allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | H/BF | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 60 | 21.7% | .239 |
| vs LHB | 393 | 97 | 24.7% | .281 |
| at home ● | 311 | 79 | 25.4% | .279 |
| on the road | 358 | 78 | 21.8% | .249 |
| season | 669 | 157 | 23.5% | .263 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career3 hits in 12 AB (.250), across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
xBA.213.200
16th percentileleague avg .240192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .213 (16th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
AVG.227.221
23rd percentileleague avg .244192 PAvs RHP · 17th pctseason .227 (23rd)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
zone contact%79.5%80.0%
19th percentile for contact in the zoneleague avg 83.9%192 PAvs RHP · 21st pctseason 79.5% (19th)165 in-zone swingssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
whiff%30.7%30.8%
80th percentile for swing-and-missleague avg 25.2%192 PAvs RHP · 80th pctseason 30.7% (80th)289 swingssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
K%31.8%31.5%
91st percentile for strikeout rateleague avg 22.5%192 PAvs RHP · 90th pctseason 31.8% (91st)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive%22.1%19.6%
34th percentileleague avg 23.6%192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 22.1% (34th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupTrevor Story: Hits by split
| G | AB | H | AVG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 140 | 33 | .236 | 66% (23/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 41 | 8 | .195 | 80% (8/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 89 | 21 | .236 | 71% (15/21) |
| at home | 24 | 92 | 20 | .217 | 67% (16/24) |
| season | 45 | 181 | 41 | .227 | 69% (31/45) |
● tonight's split
The BatTrevor Story: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | H/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 143 | 21.0% | 92 | .200 | 19.6% | 30.4% |
| vs LHP | 49 | 22.4% | 30 | .245 | 30.0% | 36.7% |
| on the road ● | 94 | 22.3% | 59 | .225 | 25.4% | 35.6% |
| at home | 98 | 20.4% | 63 | .197 | 19.1% | 28.6% |
| season | 192 | 21.4% | 122 | — | 22.1% | 32.0% |
0.5line
OVER-148ProphetXfair -139 · -2.7% vs fair
30% boost-114+9.1% vs market · +29.4% vs season50% boost+101+17% vs market · +38.7% vs season
UNDER+150bet365fair +138 · +5% vs fair
30% boost+195+23.9% vs market · -8.2% vs season50% boost+225+36.5% vs market · +1.1% vs season
1.5lineL5 60%L10 40%L20 30%SZN 18%over rate
OVER+360theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+468no market fair50% boost+540no market fair
UNDER-600theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-462no market fair50% boost-400no market fair
2.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 2%over rate
OVER+2000theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+2600no market fair50% boost+3000no market fair
3.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 2%over rate
OVER+5000BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+6500no market fair50% boost+7500no market fair
H+R+RBI
45 games loggedline1.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.250.249
61st percentileleague avg .239669 batters facedvs RHB · 60th pctseason .250 (61st)255 at-batssupports OVERsupports OVER
xERA4.04—
no split for this stat48th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16669 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
xSLG against.388.370
51st percentileleague avg .386669 batters facedvs RHB · 40th pctseason .388 (51st)255 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
BB%8.2%6.5%
51st percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.6%669 batters facedvs RHB · 20th pctseason 8.2% (51st)277 batters facedneutralsupports UNDER
K%20.8%18.8%
38th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%669 batters facedvs RHB · 26th pctseason 20.8% (38th)277 batters facedsupports OVERsupports OVER
The ArmShane Baz: h+r+rbi allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | TB | OBP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 60 | 87 | .290 |
| vs LHB | 393 | 97 | 148 | .348 |
| at home ● | 311 | 79 | 115 | .341 |
| on the road | 358 | 78 | 120 | .309 |
| season | 669 | 157 | 235 | — |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career3 hits + RBI (this source carries no runs) in 13 PA, across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
H and RBI are highlighted; this career line carries no runs column, so the R in H+R+RBI is not shown here.
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
H+R+RBI per game1.801.86
52nd percentileleague avg 1.7545 gamesvs RHP · 57th pctseason 1.80 (52nd)35 gamesneutralneutral
xwOBA.250—
no split for this stat4th percentileleague avg .310192 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xBA.213.200
16th percentileleague avg .240192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .213 (16th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
SLG.337.346
11th percentileleague avg .400192 PAvs RHP · 12th pctseason .337 (11th)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupTrevor Story: H+R+RBI by split
| G | PA | H | R | RBI | H+R+RBI/G | over 1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 147 | 33 | 12 | 20 | 1.86 | 51% (18/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 45 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1.60 | 50% (5/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 94 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 2.00 | 48% (10/21) |
| at home | 24 | 98 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 1.63 | 54% (13/24) |
| season | 45 | 192 | 41 | 17 | 23 | 1.80 | 51% (23/45) |
● tonight's split
The BatTrevor Story: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | H/PA | BBE | xBA | xSLG | barrel | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 143 | 21.0% | 92 | .200 | .310 | 5.4% | 87.9 |
| vs LHP | 49 | 22.4% | 30 | .245 | .327 | 3.3% | 87.8 |
| on the road ● | 94 | 22.3% | 59 | .225 | .340 | 5.1% | 90.5 |
| at home | 98 | 20.4% | 63 | .197 | .290 | 4.8% | 85.3 |
| season | 192 | 21.4% | 122 | — | .314 | 4.9% | 87.8 |
1.5line
OVER+117NoVigfair +123 · -2.5% vs fair
30% boost+152+13.2% vs market · +28.9% vs season50% boost+176+23.7% vs market · +40.8% vs season
UNDER-125BetMGMfair -126 · +0.4% vs fair
30% boost+104+13.8% vs market · -0.3% vs season50% boost+120+22.8% vs market · +7.6% vs season
RBIs
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xERA4.04—
no split for this stat48th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16669 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
xSLG against.388.370
51st percentileleague avg .386669 batters facedvs RHB · 40th pctseason .388 (51st)255 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed6.4%5.4%
34th percentileleague avg 7.4%671 batters facedvs RHB · 21st pctseason 6.4% (34th)203 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
BB%8.2%6.5%
51st percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.6%669 batters facedvs RHB · 20th pctseason 8.2% (51st)277 batters facedneutralsupports UNDER
The ArmShane Baz: rbis allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | HR | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 60 | 4 | .347 |
| vs LHB | 393 | 97 | 7 | .429 |
| at home ● | 311 | 79 | 4 | .406 |
| on the road | 358 | 78 | 7 | .383 |
| season | 669 | 157 | 11 | .394 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career0 RBI in 13 PA, across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
RBI per game0.510.57
71st percentileleague avg 0.4545 gamesvs RHP · 82nd pctseason 0.51 (71st)35 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
xSLG.318.310
15th percentileleague avg .386192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .318 (15th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit%40.2%41.3%
54th percentileleague avg 39.0%192 PAvs RHP · 61st pctseason 40.2% (54th)92 batted ballsneutralsupports OVER
barrel rate4.9%5.4%
26th percentileleague avg 7.8%192 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason 4.9% (26th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupTrevor Story: RBIs by split
| G | PA | RBI | RBI/G | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 147 | 20 | 0.57 | .371 | 31% (11/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 45 | 3 | 0.30 | .220 | 20% (2/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 94 | 11 | 0.52 | .360 | 29% (6/21) |
| at home | 24 | 98 | 12 | 0.50 | .315 | 29% (7/24) |
| season | 45 | 192 | 23 | 0.51 | .337 | 29% (13/45) |
● tonight's split
The BatTrevor Story: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | RBI/PA | BBE | xSLG | barrel | hard hit | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 143 | 10.5% | 92 | .310 | 5.4% | 41.3% | 87.9 |
| vs LHP | 49 | 16.3% | 30 | .327 | 3.3% | 36.7% | 87.8 |
| on the road ● | 94 | 11.7% | 59 | .340 | 5.1% | 47.5% | 90.5 |
| at home | 98 | 12.2% | 63 | .290 | 4.8% | 33.3% | 85.3 |
| season | 192 | — | 122 | .314 | 4.9% | 40.2% | 87.8 |
0.5line
OVER+245NoVigfair +253 · -2.2% vs fair
30% boost+319+18.4% vs market · +20.9% vs season50% boost+368+32.3% vs market · +35.1% vs season
UNDER-260bet365fair -256 · -0.4% vs fair
30% boost-200+7.9% vs market · +6.7% vs season50% boost-173+13.4% vs market · +12.1% vs season
1.5lineL5 20%L10 10%L20 5%SZN 13%over rate
OVER+750Caesarsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+975no market fair50% boost+1125no market fair
UNDER-1400theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-1077no market fair50% boost-933no market fair
2.5lineL5 20%L10 10%L20 5%SZN 4%over rate
OVER+2000theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+2600no market fair50% boost+3000no market fair
3.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 2%over rate
OVER+3500BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+4550no market fair50% boost+5250no market fair
4.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 2%over rate
OVER+6000BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+7800no market fair50% boost+9000no market fair
Runs
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xERA4.04—
no split for this stat48th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16669 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
xBA against.250.249
61st percentileleague avg .239669 batters facedvs RHB · 60th pctseason .250 (61st)255 at-batssupports OVERsupports OVER
BB%8.2%6.5%
51st percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.6%669 batters facedvs RHB · 20th pctseason 8.2% (51st)277 batters facedneutralsupports UNDER
The ArmShane Baz: runs allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | BB | OBP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 60 | 18 | .290 |
| vs LHB | 393 | 97 | 37 | .348 |
| at home ● | 311 | 79 | 25 | .341 |
| on the road | 358 | 78 | 30 | .309 |
| season | 669 | 157 | 55 | — |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career13 PA across 2 seasons. This career line carries no runs column
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
This career line carries no runs column, so nothing here speaks directly to a runs market.
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
runs per game0.380.34
25th percentileleague avg 0.4645 gamesvs RHP · 17th pctseason 0.38 (25th)35 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xwOBA.250—
no split for this stat4th percentileleague avg .310192 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
sprint speed27.9—
no split for this stat62nd percentileleague avg 27.4192 PAno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
xBA.213.200
16th percentileleague avg .240192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .213 (16th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
BB%4.2%4.2%
8th percentileleague avg 8.7%192 PAvs RHP · 8th pctseason 4.2% (8th)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupTrevor Story: Runs by split
| G | PA | R | R/G | OBP | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 147 | 12 | 0.34 | .265 | 31% (11/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 45 | 5 | 0.50 | .244 | 30% (3/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 94 | 10 | 0.48 | .277 | 38% (8/21) |
| at home | 24 | 98 | 7 | 0.29 | .245 | 25% (6/24) |
| season | 45 | 192 | 17 | 0.38 | .260 | 31% (14/45) |
● tonight's split
The BatTrevor Story: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | R/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 143 | — | 92 | .200 | 19.6% | 30.4% | 87.9 |
| vs LHP | 49 | — | 30 | .245 | 30.0% | 36.7% | 87.8 |
| on the road ● | 94 | 10.6% | 59 | .225 | 25.4% | 35.6% | 90.5 |
| at home | 98 | 7.1% | 63 | .197 | 19.1% | 28.6% | 85.3 |
| season | 192 | — | 122 | — | 22.1% | 32.0% | 87.8 |
0.5line
OVER+156ProphetXfair +168 · -4.5% vs fair
30% boost+203+12.9% vs market · -5.8% vs season50% boost+234+24.6% vs market · +3.9% vs season
UNDER-190bet365fair -171 · -3.8% vs fair
30% boost-146+6.3% vs market · +16% vs season50% boost-127+12.9% vs market · +23.3% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 10%SZN 7%over rate
OVER+1300theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1690no market fair50% boost+1950no market fair
UNDER-4000theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-3077no market fair50% boost-2667no market fair
Doubles
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xSLG against.388.370
51st percentileleague avg .386669 batters facedvs RHB · 40th pctseason .388 (51st)255 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
hard-hit% allowed41.8%40.9%
74th percentileleague avg 38.2%671 batters facedvs RHB · 68th pctseason 41.8% (74th)203 batted ballssupports OVERsupports OVER
barrel% allowed6.4%5.4%
34th percentileleague avg 7.4%671 batters facedvs RHB · 21st pctseason 6.4% (34th)203 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive% allowed28.3%—
no comparison availableno split for this stat669 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
The ArmShane Baz: doubles allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | 2B | 2B/BF | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 15 | 5.4% | .347 |
| vs LHB | 393 | 26 | 6.6% | .429 |
| at home ● | 311 | 22 | 7.1% | .406 |
| on the road | 358 | 19 | 5.3% | .383 |
| season | 669 | 41 | 6.1% | .394 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career1 doubles in 12 AB (.250), across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
2B/PA5.7%5.6%
91st percentileleague avg 4.1%192 PAvs RHP · 90th pctseason 5.7% (91st)143 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
xSLG.318.310
15th percentileleague avg .386192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .318 (15th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xISO.105.111
24th percentileleague avg .146192 PAvs RHP · 28th pctseason .105 (24th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive%22.1%19.6%
34th percentileleague avg 23.6%192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 22.1% (34th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
sweet-spot%32.0%30.4%
20th percentileleague avg 35.3%192 PAvs RHP · 14th pctseason 32.0% (20th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
sprint speed27.9—
no split for this stat62nd percentileleague avg 27.4192 PAno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
The MatchupTrevor Story: Doubles by split
| G | PA | 2B | 2B/PA | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 147 | 10 | 6.8% | .371 | 29% (10/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 45 | 1 | 2.2% | .220 | 10% (1/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 94 | 5 | 5.3% | .360 | 24% (5/21) |
| at home | 24 | 98 | 6 | 6.1% | .315 | 25% (6/24) |
| season | 45 | 192 | 11 | 5.7% | .337 | 24% (11/45) |
● tonight's split
The BatTrevor Story: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | 2B/PA | BBE | xSLG | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 143 | 5.6% | 92 | .310 | 19.6% | 30.4% |
| vs LHP | 49 | 6.1% | 30 | .327 | 30.0% | 36.7% |
| on the road ● | 94 | 5.3% | 59 | .340 | 25.4% | 35.6% |
| at home | 98 | 6.1% | 63 | .290 | 19.1% | 28.6% |
| season | 192 | 5.7% | 122 | .314 | 22.1% | 32.0% |
0.5line
B+★ FORMleans over
- the over has hit 40% blended (L10 50%, season 24%) against a 17% priced probability
- his 2B/PA of 5.7% - 91st percentile for 2B/PA
- counterpoint - his xISO of .105 - 24th percentile for xISO
- the read leans on a recent run - L10 50% vs 24% season
basis: 45 games this season
OVER+500theScore Betfair +495 · +0.8% vs fair
30% boost+650+26% vs market · +83.3% vs season50% boost+750+42.8% vs market · +107.8% vs season
UNDER-650bet365fair -503 · -3.8% vs fair
30% boost-500+0.1% vs market · -9.3% vs season50% boost-433+2.6% vs market · -7% vs season
Singles
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.250.249
61st percentileleague avg .239669 batters facedvs RHB · 60th pctseason .250 (61st)255 at-batssupports OVERsupports OVER
K%20.8%18.8%
38th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%669 batters facedvs RHB · 26th pctseason 20.8% (38th)277 batters facedsupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%22.6%22.8%
33rd percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%669 batters facedvs RHB · 34th pctseason 22.6% (33rd)500 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
The ArmShane Baz: singles allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | 1B | 1B/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 41 | 14.9% |
| vs LHB | 393 | 62 | 15.8% |
| at home ● | 311 | 52 | 16.7% |
| on the road | 358 | 51 | 14.2% |
| season | 669 | 103 | 15.4% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career2 singles in 12 AB (.250), across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
xBA.213.200
16th percentileleague avg .240192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .213 (16th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
zone contact%79.5%80.0%
19th percentile for contact in the zoneleague avg 83.9%192 PAvs RHP · 21st pctseason 79.5% (19th)165 in-zone swingssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
whiff%30.7%30.8%
80th percentile for swing-and-missleague avg 25.2%192 PAvs RHP · 80th pctseason 30.7% (80th)289 swingssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive%22.1%19.6%
34th percentileleague avg 23.6%192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 22.1% (34th)92 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
sprint speed27.9—
no split for this stat62nd percentileleague avg 27.4192 PAno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
The MatchupTrevor Story: Singles by split
| G | AB | 1B | AVG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 140 | 20 | .236 | 46% (16/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 41 | 7 | .195 | 70% (7/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 89 | 14 | .236 | 52% (11/21) |
| at home | 24 | 92 | 13 | .217 | 50% (12/24) |
| season | 45 | 181 | 27 | .227 | 51% (23/45) |
● tonight's split
The BatTrevor Story: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | 1B/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 143 | 13.3% | 92 | .200 | 19.6% | 30.4% |
| vs LHP | 49 | 16.3% | 30 | .245 | 30.0% | 36.7% |
| on the road ● | 94 | 14.9% | 59 | .225 | 25.4% | 35.6% |
| at home | 98 | 13.3% | 63 | .197 | 19.1% | 28.6% |
| season | 192 | 14.1% | 122 | — | 22.1% | 32.0% |
0.5line
OVER+122ProphetXfair +131 · -3.9% vs fair
30% boost+159+12% vs market · +32.2% vs season50% boost+183+22.5% vs market · +44.6% vs season
UNDER-130bet365fair -133 · +1% vs fair
30% boost+100+14.2% vs market · -2.2% vs season50% boost+115+23% vs market · +5.3% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 10%SZN 7%over rate
OVER+800theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1040no market fair50% boost+1200no market fair
UNDER-1800theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-1385no market fair50% boost-1200no market fair
Walks
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
BB%8.2%6.5%
51st percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.6%669 batters facedvs RHB · 20th pctseason 8.2% (51st)277 batters facedneutralsupports UNDER
first-pitch strike%61.3%62.1%
48th percentile for first-pitch strikesleague avg 61.9%669 batters facedvs RHB · 53rd pctseason 61.3% (48th)277 first pitchesneutralneutral
BB/93.12.4
league avg 3.4-0.3 vs league27 startsvs RHBseason 3.1276 batters facedneutralneutral
The ArmShane Baz: walks allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | BB | BB/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 276 | 18 | 6.5% |
| vs LHB | 393 | 37 | 9.4% |
| at home ● | 311 | 25 | 8.0% |
| on the road | 358 | 30 | 8.4% |
| season | 669 | 55 | 8.2% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadTrevor Story vs Shane Baz, career1 walks in 13 PA, across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .650 |
| 2025 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .250 | .625 |
| career | 13 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .641 |
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
BB%4.2%4.2%
8th percentileleague avg 8.7%192 PAvs RHP · 8th pctseason 4.2% (8th)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
chase rate43.8%44.8%
97th percentile for chasing out of the zoneleague avg 30.7%192 PAvs RHP · 98th pctseason 43.8% (97th)277 pitches outside the zonesupports UNDERsupports UNDER
zone swing%69.2%69.3%
league avg 66.8%+2.4% vs league192 PAvs RHPseason 69.2%238 in-zone pitchesneutralneutral
The MatchupTrevor Story: Walks by split
| G | PA | BB | BB% | OBP | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 147 | 6 | 4.1% | .265 | 17% (6/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 45 | 2 | 4.4% | .244 | 20% (2/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 94 | 4 | 4.3% | .277 | 19% (4/21) |
| at home | 24 | 98 | 4 | 4.1% | .245 | 17% (4/24) |
| season | 45 | 192 | 8 | 4.2% | .260 | 18% (8/45) |
● tonight's split
0.5line
OVER+330bet365fair +346 · -3.6% vs fair
30% boost+429+18.5% vs market · -6% vs season50% boost+495+33.3% vs market · +5.8% vs season
UNDER-477DraftKingsfair -346 · -6.2% vs fair
30% boost-367-1.3% vs market · +4.6% vs season50% boost-318+2% vs market · +8.1% vs season
Stolen Bases
45 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Shane Baz Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
SB rate allowed0.5%—
no split for this stat25th percentile for steals allowed per chanceleague avg 1.0%4 of 857 opportunitiesno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
runners test him0.7%—
no split for this stat29th percentile for runners going per chanceleague avg 1.3%6 of 857 opportunitiesno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
SB allowed4—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
runners caught2—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
pickoffs0—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
Trevor Story Breakdown · batter data
sprint speed27.9—
no split for this stat62nd percentileleague avg 27.4192 PAno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
SB per game0.090.06
70th percentileleague avg 0.0745 gamesvs RHP · 56th pctseason 0.09 (70th)35 gamessupports OVERneutral
xBA.213.200
16th percentileleague avg .240192 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason .213 (16th)137 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
BB%4.2%4.2%
8th percentileleague avg 8.7%192 PAvs RHP · 8th pctseason 4.2% (8th)143 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupTrevor Story: Stolen Bases by split
| G | PA | SB | SB/G | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 35 | 147 | 2 | 0.06 | 6% (2/35) |
| vs LHP | 10 | 45 | 2 | 0.20 | 20% (2/10) |
| on the road ● | 21 | 94 | 2 | 0.10 | 10% (2/21) |
| at home | 24 | 98 | 2 | 0.08 | 8% (2/24) |
| season | 45 | 192 | 4 | 0.09 | 9% (4/45) |
● tonight's split
0.5line
OVER+750ProphetXfair +600 · +21.4% vs fair
30% boost+975+53.7% vs market · -4.4% vs season50% boost+1125+75.2% vs market · +8.9% vs season
UNDER-970DraftKingsfair -710 · -3.3% vs fair
30% boost-746-0.5% vs market · +3.3% vs season50% boost-647+1.3% vs market · +5.2% vs season
Hitters on the prop boardBoston Red Sox @ Baltimore Oriolessorted by the focused market, not batting order
odds snapshot · feeds refreshed 1:00 PM ET · not live pricing