STEEZANOMICS.
← Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals

Jameson Taillon

TORToronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals8:10 PMKauffman Stadium

Runs

The MatchupJameson Taillon: Runs by split
GPARR/GOBPover 2.5
on the road ●8————0% (0/8)
at home9————0% (0/9)
season17————0% (0/17)

● tonight's split

The BatJameson Taillon: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
PAR/PABBExBALD%SS%EV
vs RHP———————
vs LHP———————
on the road ●———————
at home———————
season———————
2.5line
OVER+105Pinnaclemarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)

30% boost+136no market fair50% boost+157no market fair

UNDER-139Pinnaclemarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)

30% boost-107no market fair50% boost+108no market fair

Strikeouts

17 games logged
line2.5

The Opposing LineupKansas City Royals vs Jameson Taillona strikeout line is a bet on the lineup as much as the arm · season to date
strikeout rate20.8%20.5%
14th percentile for strikeouts (26 of 30)league avg 22.1%5294 PAvs RHP · 14th pct · 26 of 30season 20.8% (14th)3611 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
walk rate8.4%8.7%
21st percentile for walks drawn (24 of 30)league avg 8.9%5294 PAvs RHP · 34th pct · 20 of 30season 8.4% (21st)3611 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
team AVG.248.247
72nd percentile for batting average (9 of 30)league avg .2445294 PAvs RHP · 66th pct · 11 of 30season .248 (72nd)3611 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
Kansas City Royals slash.248 / .316 / .403.719 OPS · 5294 PA
Taillon's own splits
BFK%BB%K/9K:BBAVG
vs LHB18818.6%12.8%7.561.46.250
vs RHB17423%4.6%8.575.00.256
home18523.8%10.3%9.282.32.242
away ●17717.5%7.3%6.752.38.264

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that fans 3 points above league average is worth more to a strikeout line than any recent-form streak.

Against This ClubJameson Taillon vs Kansas City Royals5 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 2.5
whenIPoutsKHERBBHRvs 2.5
Aug 18 '236.01836201over
Jul 28 '226.01884020over
Aug 9 '216.01844020over
Jun 24 '216.11965120over
Sep 18 '187.021114010over

5 career games against them · they have hit .207/.264/.306 off him · 122 plate appearances · 5 of 5 went over 2.5

Jameson Taillon Breakdown · his own data
K%20.7%—
no split for this stat
37th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%362 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
whiff%26.8%—
no split for this stat
65th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%362 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
K/98.0—
no split for this stat
league avg 8.5-0.4 vs league17 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
first-pitch strike%56.1%—
no split for this stat
6th percentile for first-pitch strikesleague avg 61.9%362 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
The MatchupJameson Taillon: Strikeouts by split
GIPKK/GHover 2.5
on the road ●841.1313.884388% (7/8)
at home942.2444.894089% (8/9)
season1784.0754.418388% (15/17)

● tonight's split

2.5line
B+★ FORMleans over
  • the over has hit 83% blended (L10 80%, season 88%) against a 53% priced probability
  • recent form and season agree (80% vs 88%) - the read does not depend on a streak
  • counterpoint - his first-pitch strike% of 56.1% - 6th percentile for first-pitch strikes
  • the Kansas City Royals lineup strikes out in just 20.8% of PA - 26th of 30, one of the hardest in the league to fan

no L20 window - the sample is too short to show one

basis: 17 starts this season

OVER-111NoVigfair -112 · +0.4% vs fair

30% boost+117+14.6% vs market · +91.6% vs season50% boost+135+24.2% vs market · +107.5% vs season

UNDER+108ProphetXfair +112 · -1.7% vs fair

30% boost+140+13.7% vs market · -71.7% vs season50% boost+162+23.9% vs market · -69.2% vs season

Outs

17 games logged
line11.5

The Opposing LineupKansas City Royals vs Jameson Taillonan outs line is a bet on how long this lineup lets him work · season to date
team OBP.316.317
52nd percentile for on-base (15 of 30)league avg .3195294 PAvs RHP · 55th pct · 14 of 30season .316 (52nd)3611 PAneutralneutral
strikeout rate20.8%20.5%
14th percentile for strikeouts (26 of 30)league avg 22.1%5294 PAvs RHP · 14th pct · 26 of 30season 20.8% (14th)3611 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
runs per game4.30—
no split for this stat
31st percentile for runs scored (21 of 30)league avg 4.48141 gamesno vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports OVERseason only
Kansas City Royals slash.248 / .316 / .403.719 OPS · 5294 PA
Taillon's own splits
BFK%BB%K/9K:BBAVG
vs LHB18818.6%12.8%7.561.46.250
vs RHB17423%4.6%8.575.00.256
home18523.8%10.3%9.282.32.242
away ●17717.5%7.3%6.752.38.264

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. Walks and crooked numbers end outings early; quick outs extend them.

Against This ClubJameson Taillon vs Kansas City Royals5 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 11.5
whenIPoutsKHERBBHRvs 11.5
Aug 18 '236.01836201over
Jul 28 '226.01884020over
Aug 9 '216.01844020over
Jun 24 '216.11965120over
Sep 18 '187.021114010over

5 career games against them · they have hit .207/.264/.306 off him · 122 plate appearances · 5 of 5 went over 11.5

Jameson Taillon Breakdown · his own data
IP per start4.9—
no comparison availableno split for this stat
17 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
WHIP1.37—
no split for this stat
league avg 1.30+0.07 vs league17 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
xERA5.76—
no split for this stat
94th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16362 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
The MatchupJameson Taillon: Outs by split
GoutsIPouts/GERover 11.5
on the road ●812441.115.5033100% (8/8)
at home912842.214.222089% (8/9)
season1725284.014.825394% (16/17)

● tonight's split

11.5line
A★ FORMleans over
  • the over has hit 92% blended (L10 90%, season 94%) against a 61% priced probability
  • recent form and season agree (90% vs 94%) - the read does not depend on a streak
  • counterpoint - his xERA of 5.76 - 94th percentile for expected ERA

no L20 window - the sample is too short to show one

basis: 17 starts this season

OVER-174NoVigfair -156 · -4% vs fair

30% boost-134+6.6% vs market · +64.4% vs season50% boost-116+13.6% vs market · +75.3% vs season

UNDER+156NoVigfair +156 · -0.1% vs fair

30% boost+203+18.1% vs market · -82.2% vs season50% boost+234+30.3% vs market · -80.4% vs season

Hits Allowed

17 games logged
line4.5

The Opposing LineupKansas City Royals vs Jameson Taillona hits-allowed line is a bet on how much contact this lineup makes · season to date
team AVG.248.247
72nd percentile for batting average (9 of 30)league avg .2445294 PAvs RHP · 66th pct · 11 of 30season .248 (72nd)3611 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
team OBP.316.317
52nd percentile for on-base (15 of 30)league avg .3195294 PAvs RHP · 55th pct · 14 of 30season .316 (52nd)3611 PAneutralneutral
strikeout rate20.8%20.5%
14th percentile for strikeouts (26 of 30)league avg 22.1%5294 PAvs RHP · 14th pct · 26 of 30season 20.8% (14th)3611 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
team SLG.403.407
59th percentile for slugging (13 of 30)league avg .4005294 PAvs RHP · 59th pct · 13 of 30season .403 (59th)3611 PAneutralneutral
Kansas City Royals slash.248 / .316 / .403.719 OPS · 5294 PA
Taillon's own splits
BFK%BB%K/9K:BBAVG
vs LHB18818.6%12.8%7.561.46.250
vs RHB17423%4.6%8.575.00.256
home18523.8%10.3%9.282.32.242
away ●17717.5%7.3%6.752.38.264

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that rarely fans puts more balls in play, and balls in play become hits.

Against This ClubJameson Taillon vs Kansas City Royals5 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 4.5
whenIPoutsKHERBBHRvs 4.5
Aug 18 '236.01836201over
Jul 28 '226.01884020under
Aug 9 '216.01844020under
Jun 24 '216.11965120over
Sep 18 '187.021114010under

5 career games against them · they have hit .207/.264/.306 off him · 122 plate appearances · 2 of 5 went over 4.5

Jameson Taillon Breakdown · his own data
xBA against.257—
no split for this stat
71st percentileleague avg .239362 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
AVG against.253—
no split for this stat
league avg .244+.009 vs league17 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
WHIP1.37—
no split for this stat
league avg 1.30+0.07 vs league17 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
whiff%26.8%—
no split for this stat
65th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%362 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
The MatchupJameson Taillon: Hits Allowed by split
GIPHH/GKover 4.5
on the road ●841.1435.383163% (5/8)
at home942.2404.444467% (6/9)
season1784.0834.887565% (11/17)

● tonight's split

4.5line
OVER+115bet365fair +121 · -2.7% vs fair

30% boost+150+12.8% vs market · +61.4% vs season50% boost+172+23.2% vs market · +76.3% vs season

UNDER-136DraftKingsfair -121 · -5% vs fair

30% boost-105+7.2% vs market · -31% vs season50% boost+110+15.2% vs market · -25.8% vs season

Earned Runs

17 games logged
line2.5

The Opposing LineupKansas City Royals vs Jameson Taillonan ER line is a bet on the damage this lineup does · season to date
runs per game4.30—
no split for this stat
31st percentile for runs scored (21 of 30)league avg 4.48141 gamesno vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports UNDERseason only
team OBP.316.317
52nd percentile for on-base (15 of 30)league avg .3195294 PAvs RHP · 55th pct · 14 of 30season .316 (52nd)3611 PAneutralneutral
HR rate2.8%2.9%
28th percentile for home runs (22 of 30)league avg 3.0%5294 PAvs RHP · 34th pct · 20 of 30season 2.8% (28th)3611 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
team SLG.403.407
59th percentile for slugging (13 of 30)league avg .4005294 PAvs RHP · 59th pct · 13 of 30season .403 (59th)3611 PAneutralneutral
Kansas City Royals slash.248 / .316 / .403.719 OPS · 5294 PA
Taillon's own splits
BFK%BB%K/9K:BBAVG
vs LHB18818.6%12.8%7.561.46.250
vs RHB17423%4.6%8.575.00.256
home18523.8%10.3%9.282.32.242
away ●17717.5%7.3%6.752.38.264

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. How a lineup scores - and how often it leaves the yard - is most of an earned-run line.

Against This ClubJameson Taillon vs Kansas City Royals5 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 2.5
whenIPoutsKHERBBHRvs 2.5
Aug 18 '236.01836201under
Jul 28 '226.01884020under
Aug 9 '216.01844020under
Jun 24 '216.11965120under
Sep 18 '187.021114010under

5 career games against them · they have hit .207/.264/.306 off him · 122 plate appearances · 0 of 5 went over 2.5

Jameson Taillon Breakdown · his own data
xERA5.76—
no split for this stat
94th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.16362 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
ERA5.68—
no split for this stat
86th percentileleague avg 4.1717 startsno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
HR/92.79—
no split for this stat
league avg 1.16+1.63 vs league17 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
WHIP1.37—
no split for this stat
league avg 1.30+0.07 vs league17 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
The MatchupJameson Taillon: Earned Runs by split
GIPERERAHover 2.5
on the road ●841.1337.194388% (7/8)
at home942.2204.224033% (3/9)
season1784.0535.688359% (10/17)

● tonight's split

2.5line
OVER+122NoVigfair +125 · -1.4% vs fair

30% boost+159+14.8% vs market · +52.1% vs season50% boost+183+25.7% vs market · +66.5% vs season

UNDER-132DraftKingsfair -130 · -0.6% vs fair

30% boost-102+12.1% vs market · -18.3% vs season50% boost+114+20.7% vs market · -12% vs season

Opposing hitters on the prop boardToronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royalssorted by the focused market, not batting order

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