Base market snapshot from 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1. bet365 refreshed separately at 5:06 PM EDT. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Dalton Kincaid
BUFNew England Patriots @ Buffalo BillsSun 1:00 PM
Kincaid on the fieldred zone touches per game 0.50red zone targets per game 0.75receptions per game 3.25
Anytime TD
33 games loggedline0.5
red zone touches
NE · what this defence allows
TDs allowed to TEs0.30.30.0
39th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 6 totalseason 0.3no per-play form for this stat11th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports UNDERT-15/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-25/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
red zone targets allowed to TEs0.90.90.3
19th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 16 totalseason 0.9no per-play form for this stat11th percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.23 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports UNDER26/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-27/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
touchdowns allowed2.12.12.0
26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 36 totalseason 2.1no per-play form for this stat35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.53 games (2026) · 6 totalsupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Head to HeadDalton Kincaid vs NE0/3 with a touchdown
| date | RZ | touch | rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/14'25 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| 10/06'25 | 0 | 6 | 108 | 0 |
| 12/22'24 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Dalton Kincaid Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.500.20
SZN72nd percentile for mostleague avg 0.4012 games (2025)vs last 5 · 34th pctseason 0.50 (72nd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports UNDER
red zone targets per game0.750.20
SZN70th percentile for mostleague avg 0.5912 games (2025)vs last 5 · 15th pctseason 0.75 (70th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports UNDER
receptions per game3.253.40
SZN71st percentile for mostleague avg 2.5512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 76th pctseason 3.25 (71st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
0.5line
OVER+180Fanaticsat 0.5
Longest Reception
33 games loggedline20.5
targets
NE · what this defence allows
20+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.711.3%0.3
68th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 11 totalvs per completion · 53rd pct · T-15 of 32season 0.7 (68th)17 games50th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.53 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports OVERT-9/32 NFL defencesneutralT-12/32 NFL defencesneutral
30+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.12.1%0.0
48th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.217 games (2025) · 2 totalvs per completion · 42nd pct · 19 of 32season 0.1 (48th)17 games35th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.23 games (2026) · 0 totalneutralT-15/32 NFL defencesneutralT-10/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.20.9%0.3
6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 3 totalvs per completion · 10th pct · 29 of 32season 0.2 (6th)17 games29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.63 games (2026) · 1 totalsupports UNDERT-29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-18/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
yards after catch allowed to TEs26.14.620.7
52nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 443 totalvs per reception · 29th pct · 23 of 32season 26.1 (52nd)17 games26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 62 totalneutral16/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
air yards faced223.77.6172.7
35th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 3803 totalvs per target · 29th pct · 23 of 32season 223.7 (35th)17 games0th percentile for most facedleague avg 248.73 games (2026) · 518 totalsupports UNDER21/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER32/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Head to HeadDalton Kincaid vs NE2/3 over 20.5
| date | tgt | rec | rec yds | lng rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/14'25 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 24 |
| 10/06'25 | 6 | 6 | 108 | 23 |
| 12/22'24 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 7 |
Dalton Kincaid Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.253.40
SZN71st percentile for mostleague avg 2.5512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 76th pctseason 3.25 (71st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
yards per catch16.0317.18
SZN98th percentile for mostleague avg 10.1111 games (2025)vs last 5 · 99th pctseason 16.03 (98th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
air yards per target10.7813.63
SZN96th percentile for mostleague avg 5.8712 games (2025)vs last 5 · 99th pctseason 10.78 (96th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
20+ yard catches per game1.081.40
SZN99th percentile for mostleague avg 0.3112 games (2025)vs last 5 · 100th pctseason 1.08 (99th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
19.5line
OVER-150bet365at 19.5
20.5line
OVER-120Fliffat 20.5
UNDER-105theScore Betat 20.5
21.5line
OVER-109DraftKingsat 21.5
UNDER-115bet365at 21.5
29.5line
OVER+275bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER+650bet365at 39.5
49.5line
OVER+1000bet365at 49.5
Receiving Yards
33 games loggedline52.5
receptions
NE · what this defence allows
receiving yards allowed to TEs57.110.028.0
65th percentile for most allowedleague avg 53.317 games (2025) · 971 totalvs per reception · 48th pct · 17 of 32season 57.1 (65th)17 games10th percentile for most allowedleague avg 52.53 games (2026) · 84 totalsupports OVER12/32 NFL defencesneutral29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed to TEs5.771.9%3.3
71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 97 totalvs per target · 50th pct · T-15 of 32season 5.7 (71st)17 games8th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 10 totalsupports OVER10/32 NFL defencesneutralT-28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receiving yards allowed206.610.0189.7
26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 3512 totalvs per reception · 10th pct · 29 of 32season 206.6 (26th)17 games16th percentile for most allowedleague avg 231.33 games (2026) · 569 totalsupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER27/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
yards after catch allowed to TEs26.14.620.7
52nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 443 totalvs per reception · 29th pct · 23 of 32season 26.1 (52nd)17 games26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 27.03 games (2026) · 62 totalneutral16/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Head to HeadDalton Kincaid vs NE1/3 over 52.5
| date | tgt | rec | rec yds | tgt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/14'25 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 15.4% |
| 10/06'25 | 6 | 6 | 108 | 20% |
| 12/22'24 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25.9% |
Dalton Kincaid Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.253.40
SZN71st percentile for mostleague avg 2.5512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 76th pctseason 3.25 (71st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
targets per game4.084.20
SZN63rd percentile for mostleague avg 3.5112 games (2025)vs last 5 · 67th pctseason 4.08 (63rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
target share14.8%15.3%
SZN67th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 70th pctseason 14.8% (67th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share37.4%51.2%
SZN9th percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 40th pctseason 37.4% (9th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
19.5line
OVER-1200bet365at 19.5
29.5line
OVER-500bet365at 29.5
39.5line
OVER-250bet365at 39.5
50.5line
OVER-114BetOnline.agat 50.5
UNDER-110Fanaticsat 50.5
51.5line
OVER-115Hard Rock Betat 51.5
UNDER-115Hard Rock Betat 51.5
52.5line
OVER-111DraftKingsat 52.5
UNDER-113DraftKingsat 52.5
55.5line
OVER-112betPARXat 55.5
UNDER-117betPARXat 55.5
59.5line
OVER+115bet365at 59.5
69.5line
OVER+180bet365at 69.5
79.5line
OVER+275bet365at 79.5
89.5line
OVER+400bet365at 89.5
99.5line
OVER+600bet365at 99.5
109.5line
OVER+800bet365at 109.5
119.5line
OVER+900bet365at 119.5
129.5line
OVER+1150bet365at 129.5
Receptions
33 games loggedline4.5
targets
NE · what this defence allows
receptions allowed to TEs5.771.9%3.3
71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 97 totalvs per target · 50th pct · T-15 of 32season 5.7 (71st)17 games8th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.23 games (2026) · 10 totalsupports OVER10/32 NFL defencesneutralT-28/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
targets allowed to TEs7.97.95.0
71st percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.317 games (2025) · 135 totalseason 7.9no per-play form for this stat6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.23 games (2026) · 15 totalsupports OVER10/32 NFL defencessupports OVER30/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed20.620.619.7
47th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 350 totalseason 20.6no per-play form for this stat32nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.93 games (2026) · 59 totalneutralT-17/32 NFL defencesseason onlyT-20/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Head to HeadDalton Kincaid vs NE1/3 over 4.5
| date | tgt | rec | rec yds | tgt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/14'25 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 15.4% |
| 10/06'25 | 6 | 6 | 108 | 20% |
| 12/22'24 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25.9% |
Dalton Kincaid Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.253.40
SZN71st percentile for mostleague avg 2.5512 games (2025)vs last 5 · 76th pctseason 3.25 (71st)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
targets per game4.084.20
SZN63rd percentile for mostleague avg 3.5112 games (2025)vs last 5 · 67th pctseason 4.08 (63rd)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
target share14.8%15.3%
SZN67th percentile for mostleague avg 11.5%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 70th pctseason 14.8% (67th)5 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
snap share37.4%51.2%
SZN9th percentile for mostleague avg 57.4%12 games (2025)vs last 5 · 40th pctseason 37.4% (9th)5 gamessupports UNDERsupports UNDER
1.5line
OVER-6579bet365at 1.5
2.5line
OVER-1000bet365at 2.5
3.5line
OVER-325bet365at 3.5
4.5line
OVER+105BetMGMat 4.5
UNDER-110bet365at 4.5
5.5line
OVER+170bet365at 5.5
6.5line
OVER+400bet365at 6.5
7.5line
OVER+700bet365at 7.5
8.5line
OVER+1100bet365at 8.5
odds snapshot · pulled 10:03 AM EDT on Thu, Oct 1 · not live pricing