Is a bonus bet worth more than a profit boost?
In this matchup the bonus bet wins: $100 in bonus bets converts to roughly $48 to $80 of real value depending on the odds, while a 30% profit boost capped at $100 adds $14 to $24. Which offer wins in general depends on the face value, the boost percentage, and the cap. In practice bonus bets mostly arrive once while boosts keep coming, which changes the season-long math. Both numbers only hold if the underlying price is fair, so devig first.
Books hand out two kinds of candy: bonus bets and profit boosts. Most people treat them as the same thing, a coupon that makes betting cheaper. They’re not the same mechanic, they’re nowhere near the same value, and the answer you’ll find everywhere for what a bonus bet is worth, “50 to 70% of face,” isn’t a real number. It’s a range someone averaged. Here’s the actual math for both, in one table.
What each one actually does
A bonus bet is a stake the book lends you and takes back. Put $100 in bonus funds on +200: a win pays $200, not $300, because the $100 stake is not returned. A loss and the coupon just evaporates.
A profit boost multiplies the profit on a bet of your own cash. A 30% boost on +200 pays like +260, and your stake comes back on a win like normal.
One promo deletes your stake. The other multiplies your profit. That single difference drives everything below.
The conversion table
At a fair price, a cash bet is a break-even trade: expected return equals the stake. A bonus bet is that same trade with the stake deleted from the winning side, so its real value works out to (1 - win probability) x face value. A profit boost on your own cash at a fair price is worth boost% x (1 - win probability) x stake. Here’s $100 of each, side by side:
| Odds | Win prob | $100 bonus bet worth | 30% boost on $100 worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | 52.4% | ~$48 | ~$14 |
| +100 | 50.0% | $50 | $15 |
| +200 | 33.3% | ~$67 | ~$20 |
| +400 | 20.0% | $80 | $24 |
Worked example, the +200 row. A $100 bonus bet at a fair +200 wins 33.3% of the time and collects $200, nothing else, the stake stays with the book. 0.333 x $200 = about $67 of real value. The same $100 as your own cash with a 30% boost: the boost pays 30% of the $200 profit, and only when the bet wins, so 0.30 x $200 x 0.333 = $20. Same bet, same $100, $67 versus $20.
Why longer odds convert better
Read the bonus bet column top to bottom: $48, $50, $67, $80. That’s why “worth 50 to 70% of face” fails as a constant. The conversion isn’t a property of the coupon, it’s a function of the odds you redeem it at.
The logic is one sentence: you sacrifice the stake either way, so you want the stake to be the smallest possible share of the fair return. At -110, the stake is more than half of what a fair winning ticket pays back, so losing it costs you more than half the value. At +400 it’s a fifth. Longer odds shrink the share you’re forced to give up, so more of the face value survives.
So bonus bets win, then?
In this matchup, clearly. $80 of value from a $100 bonus bet crushes $24 from a 30% boost with a $100 cap. Change the sizes and the winner can change: a 100% boost or a $25 signup coupon reshuffles the table, so run your actual pair of offers through the formulas, not the example’s.
But look at how each one arrives. Both are single-use tokens. The difference is cadence: at the books the desk tracks, bonus bets show up at signup and the occasional win-back email, while boosts land daily or weekly and attach to your own cash on bets you were going to make anyway. A one-time $80 loses to $14 to $24 that keeps showing up all season. That cadence, more than the per-coupon math, is why the desk’s entire operation is built on boosts, not signup coupons. What you point a boost at matters just as much as the percentage, and that’s its own article: what should you use a profit boost on? When you’re holding a specific boost, the boost EV calculator prices it in seconds.
Devig first or the table doesn’t apply to you
Every number above assumes the price you redeem at is fair. Books know bonus bets get spent on longshots, and longshot prices are exactly where they shade hardest. A bonus bet placed at a listed +400 that’s really worth +300 is not an $80 coupon, and the shortfall comes straight out of your conversion.
So strip the vig before anything else: take both sides of the market, run them through the no-vig calculator, and compare your price to fair. If fair prices and vig are new vocabulary, start with what is +EV betting? and come back. The promo math is the easy part. Pinning down the fair price is the job.
The refund fine print
One more distinction that’s worth real money. Some promos refund a losing bet in cash. Those convert at 100 cents on the dollar: lose $100, get $100 of withdrawable money back. Most promos refund in bonus bets, which convert at the table’s rates, $48 to $80 per $100 when you replay them. “Bet $100, get $100 back if you lose” means two very different offers depending on one word in the terms. Read for it every time.
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Quick answers
How much is a $100 bonus bet worth?
Between about $48 and $80 of real value, depending on the odds you redeem it at. The formula at a fair price is (1 minus win probability) times face value: about $48 at -110, $50 at +100, $67 at +200, $80 at +400. The stake is never returned, so the shorter the odds, the more of the payout you give up.
Why are bonus bets worth more at longer odds?
Because the stake disappears either way, win or lose. At -110 the stake is more than half of what a fair winning ticket returns, so deleting it deletes more than half the value. At +400 the stake is only a fifth of the return. You want the stake to be the smallest possible share of the fair payout, and longer odds do exactly that.
Is a bonus bet better than a profit boost?
At these sizes, yes: $100 in bonus bets converts to $48 to $80, while a 30% boost capped at $100 is worth $14 to $24. Which wins in general depends on the bonus's face value, the boost percentage, and its cap, so run your actual pair of offers. In practice books hand out boosts far more often than bonus bets, which is why the desk runs on boosts.
What's the difference between a bonus-bet refund and a cash refund?
Everything. A refund in cash converts at 100%: lose $100, get $100 of withdrawable money back. A refund in bonus bets hands you a coupon worth roughly $48 to $80 when you replay it, depending on the odds. Same headline on the promo banner, very different value. The word to hunt for in the terms is cash.
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