Best NFL Anytime Touchdown Props, Monday September 28

2 selections from 4 NFL anytime touchdown props across 1 game that cleared our form and pricing filters on Monday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Zach Ertz Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+600	BetMGM	over in 20% of his last ten; Zach Ertz averages 0.46 red zone touches a game over 13 games, against 0.40 for TEs (66th percentile)
Colston Loveland Over 0.5 Anytime TD	+350	DraftKings	over in 30% of his last ten; Colston Loveland averages 0.69 red zone touches a game over 16 games, against 0.40 for TEs (82nd percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of his season rate, last season's until this one has enough games behind it, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Zach Ertz Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears · kickoff 8:15 PM ET

+600at BetMGM

Zach Ertz has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 31% of 13 games last season and 20% across the last ten.

Zach Ertz averages 0.46 red zone touches a game over 13 games, against 0.40 for TEs (66th percentile).
Zach Ertz averages 0.69 red zone targets a game over 13 games, against 0.59 for TEs (62nd percentile).
Zach Ertz averages 3.85 receptions a game over 13 games, against 2.56 for TEs (82nd percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +600 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Chicago Bears rank 15th of 32 for TDs allowed to TEs, at 0.3 a game over 17 games.

Chicago Bears rank 20th of 32 for red zone targets allowed to TEs, at 1.1 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Zach Ertz

Angle 2

Colston Loveland Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears · kickoff 8:15 PM ET

+350at DraftKings

Colston Loveland has gone over 0.5 anytime TD in 28% of 18 games last season and 30% across the last ten.

Colston Loveland averages 0.69 red zone touches a game over 16 games, against 0.40 for TEs (82nd percentile).
Colston Loveland averages 0.94 red zone targets a game over 16 games, against 0.59 for TEs (86th percentile).
Colston Loveland averages 3.62 receptions a game over 16 games, against 2.56 for TEs (78th percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only. The +350 above is the price as it stands, vig included, and the form read has to clear it.

Philadelphia Eagles rank 30th of 32 for TDs allowed to TEs, at 0.2 a game over 17 games.

Philadelphia Eagles rank 27th of 32 for red zone targets allowed to TEs, at 0.8 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Colston Loveland

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best NFL receiving yards props for Monday.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Monday, September 28. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 28, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.