STEEZANOMICS.

NFL PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, October 4

Best NFL Anytime Touchdown Props, Sunday October 4

3 selections from 47 NFL anytime touchdown props across 14 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded card is 14-20-1 at -5.9% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 4. Every pick, graded, losers included.

PickPriceBookWhy
Garrett Wilson Over 0.5 Anytime TD+160Fanaticsover in 60% of his last ten; Garrett Wilson averages 0.71 red zone targets a game over 7 games, against 0.63 for WRs (65th percentile)
Colston Loveland Over 0.5 Anytime TD+275BetMGMover in 30% of his last ten; Colston Loveland averages 0.69 red zone touches a game over 16 games, against 0.40 for TEs (83rd percentile)
Puka Nacua Over 0.5 Anytime TD+150BetMGMover in 60% of his last ten; Puka Nacua averages 0.94 red zone touches a game over 16 games, against 0.36 for WRs (98th percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is a player's last ten games where he has no season baseline on record, and otherwise 60% of the last ten and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Garrett Wilson Over 0.5 Anytime TD

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

+160at Fanatics

Garrett Wilson has gone over 0.5 anytime td in 60% of his last ten games.

  • Garrett Wilson averages 0.71 red zone targets a game over 7 games, against 0.63 for WRs (65th percentile).
  • Garrett Wilson averages 5.14 receptions a game over 7 games, against 2.89 for WRs (91st percentile).
  • Chicago Bears rank 3rd of 32 for TDs allowed to WRs, at 1.2 a game over 17 games.

The case against

This market is quoted one way only, so there is no opposite side to strip the vig from and no fair to compare against. The +160 above is the market's own number, vig included, and the form read has to clear it as it stands.

Full game log and every book on Garrett Wilson

Angle 2

Colston Loveland Over 0.5 Anytime TD

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

+275at BetMGM

Colston Loveland has gone over 0.5 anytime td in 28% of 18 games last season and 30% across the last ten.

  • Colston Loveland averages 0.69 red zone touches a game over 16 games, against 0.40 for TEs (83rd percentile).
  • Colston Loveland averages 0.94 red zone targets a game over 16 games, against 0.59 for TEs (86th percentile).
  • Colston Loveland averages 3.62 receptions a game over 16 games, against 2.55 for TEs (78th percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only, so there is no opposite side to strip the vig from and no fair to compare against. The +275 above is the market's own number, vig included, and the form read has to clear it as it stands.

Full game log and every book on Colston Loveland

Angle 3

Puka Nacua Over 0.5 Anytime TD

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

+150at BetMGM

Puka Nacua has gone over 0.5 anytime td in 58% of 19 games last season and 60% across the last ten.

  • Puka Nacua averages 0.94 red zone touches a game over 16 games, against 0.36 for WRs (98th percentile).
  • Puka Nacua averages 1.06 red zone targets a game over 16 games, against 0.63 for WRs (87th percentile).
  • Puka Nacua averages 8.06 receptions a game over 16 games, against 2.89 for WRs (99th percentile).

The case against

This market is quoted one way only, so there is no opposite side to strip the vig from and no fair to compare against. The +150 above is the market's own number, vig included, and the form read has to clear it as it stands.

Philadelphia Eagles rank 31st of 32 for TDs allowed to WRs, at 0.3 a game over 17 games.

Philadelphia Eagles rank 22nd of 32 for red zone targets allowed to WRs, at 1.9 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Puka Nacua

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card is.

Same slate: Best NFL receiving yards props for Sunday.

Every prop on Sunday’s boardThe record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, October 4. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 3, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.