STEEZANOMICS.

NFL PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, October 4

Best NFL Receiving Yards Props, Sunday October 4

3 selections from 63 NFL receiving yards props across 14 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded card is 14-20-1 at -5.9% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 4. Every pick, graded, losers included.

PickPriceBookWhy
Braelon Allen Under 11.5 Receiving Yards-110Hard Rock Betunder in 90% of his last ten; Braelon Allen averages 0.50 receptions a game over 4 games, against 2.15 for RBs (3rd percentile)
Rome Odunze Over 32.5 Receiving Yards-112DraftKingsover in 80% of his last ten; Rome Odunze averages 3.67 receptions a game over 12 games, against 2.89 for WRs (72nd percentile)
Zach Ertz Over 21.5 Receiving Yards-114FanDuelover in 60% of his last ten; Zach Ertz averages 3.85 receptions a game over 13 games, against 2.55 for TEs (83rd percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is a player's last ten games where he has no season baseline on record, and otherwise 60% of the last ten and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Braelon Allen Under 11.5 Receiving Yards

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-110at Hard Rock Bet

Braelon Allen has gone under 11.5 receiving yards in 90% of his last ten games.

  • Braelon Allen averages 0.50 receptions a game over 4 games, against 2.15 for RBs (3rd percentile).
  • Braelon Allen averages 0.75 targets a game over 4 games, against 2.72 for RBs (2nd percentile).
  • Braelon Allen's target share is 2.6% over 4 games, against 8.9% for RBs (3rd percentile).

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -101 and this is -110, giving up roughly 4.3%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Chicago Bears rank 11th of 32 for receiving yards allowed, at 239.2 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Braelon Allen

Angle 2

Rome Odunze Over 32.5 Receiving Yards

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-112at DraftKings

Rome Odunze has gone over 32.5 receiving yards in 71% of 14 games last season and 80% across the last ten.

  • Rome Odunze averages 3.67 receptions a game over 12 games, against 2.89 for WRs (72nd percentile).
  • Rome Odunze averages 7.50 targets a game over 12 games, against 4.68 for WRs (88th percentile).
  • Rome Odunze's target share is 23.5% over 12 games, against 15.1% for WRs (87th percentile).

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -100 and this is -112, giving up roughly 5.2%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

New York Jets rank 20th of 32 for receptions allowed to WRs, at 10.5 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Rome Odunze

Angle 3

Zach Ertz Over 21.5 Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-114at FanDuel

Zach Ertz has gone over 21.5 receiving yards in 69% of 13 games last season and 60% across the last ten.

  • Zach Ertz averages 3.85 receptions a game over 13 games, against 2.55 for TEs (83rd percentile).
  • Zach Ertz averages 5.54 targets a game over 13 games, against 3.51 for TEs (88th percentile).
  • Zach Ertz's target share is 19.1% over 13 games, against 11.5% for TEs (90th percentile).

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -100 and this is -114, giving up roughly 6.1%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Los Angeles Rams rank 25th of 32 for receiving yards allowed to TEs, at 45.6 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Zach Ertz

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card is.

Same slate: Best NFL anytime touchdown props for Sunday.

Every prop on Sunday’s boardThe record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, October 4. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 3, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.