STEEZANOMICS.

NFL PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, October 4

Best NFL Rushing Yards Props, Sunday October 4

3 selections from 20 NFL rushing yards props across 14 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded card is 14-20-1 at -5.9% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 4. Every pick, graded, losers included.

PickPriceBookWhy
Geno Smith Under 10.5 Rushing Yards-112BetOnline.agunder in 70% of his last ten; Geno Smith averages 2.73 carries a game over 15 games, against 3.55 for QBs (38th percentile)
Kyren Williams Over 57.5 Rushing Yards-115Hard Rock Betover in 70% of his last ten; Kyren Williams averages 15.24 carries a game over 17 games, against 10.94 for RBs (78th percentile)
Blake Corum Over 39.5 Rushing Yards-110DraftKingsover in 70% of his last ten; Blake Corum has 5.50 yards per carry over 17 games, against 4.23 for RBs (95th percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of his season rate, last season's until this one has enough games behind it, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Geno Smith Under 10.5 Rushing Yards

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-112at BetOnline.ag

Geno Smith has gone under 10.5 rushing yards in 80% of 15 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

  • Geno Smith averages 2.73 carries a game over 15 games, against 3.55 for QBs (38th percentile).
  • Geno Smith has 2.43 yards per carry over 14 games, against 4.27 for QBs (14th percentile).
  • Chicago Bears rank 20th of 32 for carries allowed to QBs, at 3.9 a game over 17 games.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -101 and this is -112, giving up roughly 4.7%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Chicago Bears rank 4th of 32 for rushing yards allowed to QBs, at 23.1 a game over 17 games.

Chicago Bears rank 11th of 32 for most run against runs faced, at 25.0 a game over 17 games.

Full game log and every book on Geno Smith

Angle 2

Kyren Williams Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-115at Hard Rock Bet

Kyren Williams has gone over 57.5 rushing yards in 75% of 20 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

  • Kyren Williams averages 15.24 carries a game over 17 games, against 10.94 for RBs (78th percentile).
  • Kyren Williams has 4.98 yards per carry over 17 games, against 4.23 for RBs (84th percentile).
  • Philadelphia Eagles rank 8th of 32 for carries allowed to RBs, at 23.2 a game over 17 games.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -101 and this is -115, giving up roughly 6.1%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Full game log and every book on Kyren Williams

Angle 3

Blake Corum Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles · kickoff 1:00 PM ET

-110at DraftKings

Blake Corum has gone over 39.5 rushing yards in 55% of 20 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

  • Blake Corum has 5.50 yards per carry over 17 games, against 4.23 for RBs (95th percentile).
  • Philadelphia Eagles rank 8th of 32 for carries allowed to RBs, at 23.2 a game over 17 games.
  • Philadelphia Eagles rank 7th of 32 for most run against runs faced, at 25.8 a game over 17 games.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -102 and this is -110, giving up roughly 3.8%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Blake Corum averages 8.53 carries a game over 17 games, against 10.94 for RBs (31st percentile).

Full game log and every book on Blake Corum

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card is.

Same slate: Best NFL anytime touchdown props for Sunday.

Every prop on Sunday’s boardThe record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, October 4. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 3, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.