NFL PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, October 4

Broncos vs 49ers player props, and the case against each one.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers, kickoff 4:25 PM ET. Below are our 2 best props in this game, chosen on recent form, season baseline, the matchup and the odds actually available, with the exact price, where to get it, and the reason each might be wrong.

Our graded card is 11-18-1 at -25.5% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 4. Every pick, graded, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Troy Franklin Over 5.5 Receiving Yards	-113	DraftKings	over in 80% of his last ten; Troy Franklin averages 3.82 receptions a game over 17 games, against 2.89 for WRs (75th percentile)
Bo Nix Over 21.5 Completions	-120	betPARX	over in 70% of his last ten; Bo Nix averages 36.00 pass attempts a game over 17 games, against 28.28 for QBs (99th percentile)

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of his season rate, last season's until this one has enough games behind it, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Troy Franklin Over 5.5 Receiving Yards

-113at DraftKings

Troy Franklin has gone over 5.5 receiving yards in 94% of 17 games last season and 80% across the last ten.

Troy Franklin averages 3.82 receptions a game over 17 games, against 2.89 for WRs (75th percentile).
Troy Franklin averages 6.12 targets a game over 17 games, against 4.68 for WRs (75th percentile).
Troy Franklin's target share is 18.0% over 17 games, against 15.1% for WRs (67th percentile).

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -101 and this is -113, giving up roughly 5.5%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Full game log and every book on Troy Franklin

Angle 2

Bo Nix Over 21.5 Completions

-120at betPARX

Bo Nix has gone over 21.5 completions in 67% of 18 games last season and 70% across the last ten.

Bo Nix averages 36.00 pass attempts a game over 17 games, against 28.28 for QBs (99th percentile).
Bo Nix averages 231.24 passing yards a game over 17 games, against 198.10 for QBs (71st percentile).
San Francisco 49ers rank 2nd of 32 for completions allowed, at 23.4 a game over 17 games.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -109 and this is -120, giving up roughly 4.3%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Full game log and every book on Bo Nix

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest props in this matchup, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card is.

Same slate: Best NFL anytime touchdown props for Sunday.

Every prop in this game The record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, October 4. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 3, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.