What happens to the Warriors' player props without Jimmy Butler?
In the 44 regular-season games Golden State played without Jimmy Butler in 2025-26, against 38 with him, the Warriors scored 111.45 points a game (median 110.5) against 118.26 (median 119.5). Gui Santos averaged 13.32 points in 27.90 minutes without him against 3.29 in 10.07 with him, and Gary Payton II 9.71 points against 5.09. Stephen Curry played only 10 of the 44 games without Butler, and in those 10 he averaged 22.50 points against 27.79 with Butler. The cause of each absence is unknown from our logs, and these are last season's numbers, not a forecast.
Jimmy Butler will not play for Golden State at the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, the Warriors’ season opener. The ESPN injury feed lists him as out in an entry dated October 16, 2026, and its comment reads, “Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL.” The feed also lists Brandin Podziemski, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody out, and its comment on Stephen Curry says he is probable. The 2026-27 season has not produced a Warriors game yet, so every number below comes from last season: Golden State played 82 regular-season games in 2025-26, Butler played 10 or more minutes in 38 of them, and 44 came without him. Our logs do not say why he missed any single game, so the cause is unknown.
A game counts as with Butler when he played at least 10 minutes, a fifth of regulation. Two games he played short still count as with him: November 4 (14 minutes) and December 2 (15 minutes). His last game of the season in our logs was January 19 vs Miami, 21 minutes, 17 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists; the Warriors scored 135 that night, and he did not play again. The 44 games without him came in six stretches, the last a run of 38 from January 20 to April 12.
The biggest thing in this sample: Curry was out too
Curry played 33 of the 38 games with Butler but only 10 of the 44 without him. In 34 of the games without Butler, Curry did not play either, so most of what the without column shows is a Warriors team missing both. The 10 games with Curry and without Butler came on January 17, January 20 to 30 and April 5 to 12, and they get their own column and table below.
The Warriors, with Butler against without him
| Warriors per game (median) | With, 38 games | Without, 44 games | Without Butler, Curry played, 10 games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 118.26 (119.5) | 111.45 (110.5) | 120.70 (117) |
| Rebounds | 42.66 (42) | 42.07 (41.5) | 39.40 (40) |
| Assists | 29.08 (28.5) | 28.73 (28) | 30.70 (30.5) |
| Three-pointers | 16.55 (17) | 14.93 (14) | 16.70 (16) |
Butler himself averaged 20.00 points, 5.55 rebounds, 4.87 assists and 0.84 three-pointers in 31.18 minutes in the games he played.
The teammates: minutes and points
| Player | Games with, without | Minutes with | Minutes without | Points with (median) | Points without (median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 33, 10 | 31.94 | 27.70 | 27.79 (27) | 22.50 (23.5) |
| Draymond Green | 34, 34 | 27.44 | 27.56 | 8.71 (8) | 8.06 (7) |
| De’Anthony Melton | 16, 33 | 20.75 | 24.09 | 10.00 (9.5) | 13.39 (14) |
| Al Horford | 21, 24 | 19.19 | 23.67 | 7.00 (7) | 9.38 (10) |
| Gui Santos | 28, 40 | 10.07 | 27.90 | 3.29 (3) | 13.32 (14.5) |
| Will Richard | 33, 36 | 18.06 | 21.69 | 6.67 (6) | 6.14 (4) |
| Gary Payton II | 35, 38 | 12.37 | 18.66 | 5.09 (5) | 9.71 (10) |
The teammates: rebounds, assists and threes
| Player | Rebounds with | Rebounds without | Assists with | Assists without | Threes with | Threes without |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 3.76 (3) | 3.00 (3) | 5.12 (5) | 3.40 (3) | 4.61 (4) | 3.80 (4) |
| Draymond Green | 5.97 (6) | 5.06 (5) | 5.38 (4.5) | 5.68 (6) | 1.47 (1) | 1.50 (1) |
| De’Anthony Melton | 2.56 (2) | 3.55 (3) | 1.69 (1) | 2.97 (3) | 1.44 (1) | 1.48 (1) |
| Al Horford | 4.76 (5) | 4.96 (5) | 2.05 (2) | 3.04 (3) | 1.57 (1) | 1.71 (1.5) |
| Gui Santos | 2.11 (1.5) | 5.17 (5) | 1.04 (1) | 3.25 (3) | 0.61 (0) | 1.52 (1) |
| Will Richard | 2.33 (2) | 2.64 (2) | 1.24 (1) | 1.44 (1) | 1.12 (1) | 0.94 (1) |
| Gary Payton II | 3.40 (3) | 3.84 (3) | 1.69 (1) | 1.68 (2) | 0.26 (0) | 0.74 (0) |
Every figure is per game the player played, in the group of games shown. Games with and games without count the games each player appeared in, so a player who missed games himself has a smaller count than the group. Melton’s first Warriors game in our logs was December 4.
The 10 games without Butler that Curry played
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points (median) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 10 | 27.70 | 22.50 (23.5) |
| Draymond Green | 9 | 26.22 | 6.89 (6) |
| De’Anthony Melton | 10 | 23.30 | 14.20 (14.5) |
| Al Horford | 7 | 21.71 | 8.71 (10) |
| Gui Santos | 8 | 22.00 | 9.50 (7) |
| Will Richard | 9 | 17.22 | 3.78 (0) |
| Gary Payton II | 8 | 15.75 | 7.00 (7) |
Ten games is a small sample, and one big night moves an average this short, so read the medians beside the means.
What this can and cannot tell you
The largest shift is Santos: 27.90 minutes and 13.32 points a game without Butler against 10.07 and 3.29 with him. In the 10 games Curry played without Butler, Santos still played 22.00 minutes and scored 9.50 (median 7). Payton’s minutes and points rose too, and Melton scored 13.39 without Butler against 10.00 with him, but Melton played only 16 games with Butler, all after December 4. Two players who scored more without Butler last season are out at the Lakers: Podziemski averaged 15.23 points in 44 games without him against 12.18 in 38 with him, and Moses Moody 15.21 in 24 games against 10.08 in 36. Porzingis played his first Warriors game on February 19 and all 15 of his Warriors games came without Butler, so he is in neither comparison in a useful way, and he is out too. Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield played for Golden State last season but are not on the Warriors roster ESPN listed on October 21, 2026. With Curry missing most of the without games, the cause of each absence unknown and the supporting cast different, none of this forecasts Wednesday’s game at the Lakers, and none of it says anything about prices.
Where to find these
The Warriors’ players appear on the Lab board once their game is posted, each with every result beside the line. The NBA allowance tables are on defense vs position for NBA props, and does defense vs position matter for NBA props explains how to read them. How we check a prop in general is in how to research a player prop, and the same question for a goalie is in Jets props without Connor Hellebuyck.
Source: our NBA game logs, regular season only, Golden State’s 82 games in 2025-26 through April 12, 2026. Butler’s status as listed on the ESPN injury feed, entry dated October 16, 2026, read October 21, 2026.
Quick answers
How many games did the Warriors play without Butler last season?
44 of their 82 regular-season games, in six stretches: single games on November 5 and November 19, two from December 4 to December 6, single games on January 2 and January 17, and a run of 38 from January 20 to April 12. A game counts as with Butler when he played at least 10 minutes, a fifth of regulation.
What did Butler himself average?
In the 38 games he played 10 or more minutes, 20.00 points (median 20), 5.55 rebounds (median 5.5), 4.87 assists (median 5) and 0.84 three-pointers (median 1) in 31.18 minutes a game (median 32).
Did Stephen Curry score more without him?
No. Curry averaged 22.50 points (median 23.5) in the 10 games he played without Butler and 27.79 (median 27) in 33 with him, in 27.70 minutes against 31.94. Ten games is a small sample, and the cause of the gap is unknown.
Who gained minutes?
Gui Santos went from 10.07 minutes a game to 27.90, Gary Payton II from 12.37 to 18.66, Al Horford from 19.19 to 23.67 and De'Anthony Melton from 20.75 to 24.09. Draymond Green's minutes barely moved, 27.44 with Butler and 27.56 without.
Does this tell me what will happen at the Lakers?
No. Curry missed 34 of last season's 44 games without Butler, Kristaps Porzingis joined midway through the run, and Porzingis and Brandin Podziemski are also out for the game at the Lakers. These numbers describe what happened; they do not forecast Wednesday, and they say nothing about the prices.
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