Best MLB Home Run Props, Friday September 18

3 selections from 14 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Friday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs	+425	bet365	over in 40% of his last ten; Alonso barrels the ball at the 93rd percentile of qualified regulars
Josh Bell Over 0.5 Home Runs	+625	Caesars	over in 20% of his last ten; Bell barrels the ball at the 70th percentile of qualified regulars
Zach Neto Over 0.5 Home Runs	+525	Fanatics	over in 30% of his last ten; Neto barrels the ball at the 80th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs

Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles · first pitch 7:06 PM ET

+425at bet365

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 home runs in 24% of 153 games this season and 40% across the last ten. He faces Dustin May.

Alonso barrels the ball at the 93rd percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 96th percentile on.

The case against

The price is not the problem here. The form read still has to hold at +425.

Dustin May has allowed a home run on 1.87% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Pete Alonso

Angle 2

Josh Bell Over 0.5 Home Runs

Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · first pitch 9:39 PM ET

+625at Caesars

Josh Bell has gone over 0.5 home runs in 12% of 146 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Grayson Rodriguez.

Bell barrels the ball at the 70th percentile of qualified regulars.
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a home run on 3.55% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 64th percentile on.

The case against

At +625 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Full game log and every book on Josh Bell

Angle 3

Zach Neto Over 0.5 Home Runs

Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · first pitch 9:39 PM ET

+525at Fanatics

Zach Neto has gone over 0.5 home runs in 17% of 148 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Connor Prielipp.

Neto barrels the ball at the 80th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats right-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 80th percentile on.
Connor Prielipp carries a 5.24 ERA and a .260 average against over 113.1 innings.

The case against

Nothing about +525 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Connor Prielipp has allowed a home run on 2.86% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Zach Neto

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Athletics vs Guardians player props.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Friday, September 18. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 18, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.