Best MLB Home Run Props, Friday September 25

3 selections from 15 MLB home run props across 17 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Friday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Home Runs	+575	bet365	over in 20% of his last ten; Chourio barrels the ball at the 84th percentile of qualified regulars
Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Home Runs	+550	bet365	over in 20% of his last ten; Bauers barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars
Rafael Flores Over 0.5 Home Runs	+650	bet365	over in 20% of his last ten; Flores barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Home Runs

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers · first pitch 7:41 PM ET

+575at bet365

Jackson Chourio has gone over 0.5 home runs in 18% of 124 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Michael McGreevy.

Chourio barrels the ball at the 84th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 75th percentile on.

The case against

The price is not the problem here. The form read still has to hold at +575.

Michael McGreevy has allowed a home run on 3.10% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Jackson Chourio

Angle 2

Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Home Runs

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers · first pitch 7:41 PM ET

+550at bet365

Jake Bauers has gone over 0.5 home runs in 18% of 141 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Michael McGreevy.

Bauers barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 82nd percentile on.

The case against

+550 is not what makes this one risky. The form read is, and it still has to hold.

Michael McGreevy has allowed a home run on 3.10% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Jake Bauers

Angle 3

Rafael Flores Over 0.5 Home Runs

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers · first pitch 6:41 PM ET

+650at bet365

Rafael Flores has gone over 0.5 home runs in 19% of 43 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Jackson Jobe.

Flores barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars.
Jackson Jobe has allowed a home run on 4.05% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 97th percentile on.

The case against

No complaint about +650. The risk sits with the form read holding up.

Full game log and every book on Rafael Flores

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB hits props for Friday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Friday, September 25. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 25, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.