MLB PLAYER PROPS · Friday, September 4

Best MLB Home Run Props, Friday September 4

3 selections from 19 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on tonight's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded card is 55-57-8 at -2.7% ROI since Aug 9. Every pick, graded, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Home Runs	+600	Fanatics	over in 20% of his last ten; Jones barrels the ball at the 98th percentile of qualified regulars
Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Home Runs	+550	Fanatics	over in 30% of his last ten; Merrill Kelly has allowed a home run on 4.20% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%
Michael Conforto Over 0.5 Home Runs	+600	Bally Bet	over in 30% of his last ten; Conforto barrels the ball at the 80th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Home Runs

New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres · first pitch 9:41 PM ET

+600at Fanatics

Spencer Jones has gone over 0.5 home runs in 14% of 65 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Walker Buehler.

Jones barrels the ball at the 98th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 76th percentile on.
Walker Buehler carries a 4.66 ERA and a .256 average against over 131.1 innings.

The case against

The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +568 against the +600 shown. That is a market comparison rather than our own probability, so treat it as context and not as a verdict.

Walker Buehler has allowed a home run on 3.04% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Spencer Jones

Angle 2

Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Home Runs

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros · first pitch 8:11 PM ET

+550at Fanatics

Jeremy Pena has gone over 0.5 home runs in 17% of 90 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Merrill Kelly.

Merrill Kelly has allowed a home run on 4.20% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 89th percentile on.
Merrill Kelly carries a 5.08 ERA and a .270 average against over 141.2 innings.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +566 and this is +550. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Full game log and every book on Jeremy Pena

Angle 3

Michael Conforto Over 0.5 Home Runs

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins · first pitch 7:10 PM ET

+600at Bally Bet

Michael Conforto has gone over 0.5 home runs in 13% of 94 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Janson Junk.

Conforto barrels the ball at the 80th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 83rd percentile on.

The case against

The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +554 against the +600 shown. That is a market comparison rather than our own probability, so treat it as context and not as a verdict.

Janson Junk has allowed a home run on 2.75% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Michael Conforto

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is recorded with the exact price and book shown, at a flat stake, from the moment it was published.

Also today: Angels vs Pirates player props, and today's full card.

Every prop on tonight’s board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Friday, September 4. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 4, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.