Best MLB Home Run Props, Monday September 7

3 selections from 20 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Monday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Home Runs	+480	BetRivers	over in 20% of his last ten; Chourio barrels the ball at the 87th percentile of qualified regulars
Michael Busch Over 0.5 Home Runs	+660	DraftKings	over in 20% of his last ten; Busch barrels the ball at the 64th percentile of qualified regulars
Coby Mayo Over 0.5 Home Runs	+600	Hard Rock	over in 20% of his last ten; Mayo barrels the ball at the 86th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Home Runs

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers · first pitch 2:11 PM ET

+480at BetRivers

Jackson Chourio has gone over 0.5 home runs in 17% of 109 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Matthew Boyd.

Chourio barrels the ball at the 87th percentile of qualified regulars.
Matthew Boyd has allowed a home run on 3.55% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats right-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 84th percentile on.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at +480.

Full game log and every book on Jackson Chourio

Angle 2

Michael Busch Over 0.5 Home Runs

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers · first pitch 2:11 PM ET

+660at DraftKings

Michael Busch has gone over 0.5 home runs in 13% of 142 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Robert Gasser.

Busch barrels the ball at the 64th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 63rd percentile on.

The case against

At +660 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Robert Gasser has allowed a home run on 3.46% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Michael Busch

Angle 3

Coby Mayo Over 0.5 Home Runs

Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles · first pitch 1:36 PM ET

+600at Hard Rock

Coby Mayo has gone over 0.5 home runs in 17% of 110 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Joey Cantillo.

Mayo barrels the ball at the 86th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats right-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 99th percentile on.

The case against

Nothing about +600 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Joey Cantillo has allowed a home run on 2.58% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Coby Mayo

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Cubs vs Brewers player props.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Monday, September 7. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 7, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.