MLB PLAYER PROPS · Saturday, September 12
Final. These games have been played; every price is as published.
3 selections from 23 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Saturday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.
Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.
| Pick | Price | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs | +550 | bet365 | over in 50% of his last ten; Cruz barrels the ball at the 98th percentile of qualified regulars |
| William Contreras Over 0.5 Home Runs | +600 | Fanatics | over in 30% of his last ten; Contreras barrels the ball at the 61st percentile of qualified regulars |
| Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | +577 | DraftKings | over in 20% of his last ten; Machado barrels the ball at the 70th percentile of qualified regulars |
Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.
Angle 1
Elly De La Cruz has gone over 0.5 home runs in 20% of 128 games this season and 50% across the last ten.
The case against
The price is not the problem here. The form read still has to hold at +550.
The last ten (50%) sits a long way from the season rate (20%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.
Angle 2
William Contreras has gone over 0.5 home runs in 12% of 136 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Brady Singer.
The case against
+600 is not what makes this one risky. The form read is, and it still has to hold.
Angle 3
Manny Machado has gone over 0.5 home runs in 17% of 143 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Cesar Perdomo.
The case against
No complaint about +577. The risk sits with the form read holding up.
These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.
Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.
Same slate: Best MLB hits props for Saturday.
The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.
Built from the Lab's board for Saturday, September 12. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 12, 11:43 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.