MLB PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, September 20
Final. These games have been played; every price is as published.
3 selections from 25 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Sunday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.
Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.
| Pick | Price | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice Over 0.5 Home Runs | +510 | DraftKings | over in 30% of his last ten; Rice barrels the ball at the 93rd percentile of qualified regulars |
| Austin Wells Over 0.5 Home Runs | +650 | bet365 | over in 30% of his last ten; He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 60th percentile on |
| Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Home Runs | +375 | theScore Bet | over in 20% of his last ten; Caminero barrels the ball at the 89th percentile of qualified regulars |
Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.
Angle 1
Ben Rice has gone over 0.5 home runs in 26% of 146 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Corbin Burnes.
The case against
The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at +510.
Angle 2
Austin Wells has gone over 0.5 home runs in 10% of 117 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Corbin Burnes.
The case against
+650 is not what makes this one risky. The form read is, and it still has to hold.
The last ten (30%) sits a long way from the season rate (10%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.
Angle 3
Junior Caminero has gone over 0.5 home runs in 24% of 154 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Patrick Sandoval.
The case against
Nothing about +375 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.
Patrick Sandoval has allowed a home run on 2.25% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.
These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.
Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.
Same slate: Best MLB total bases props for Sunday.
The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.
Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, September 20. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 20, 10:32 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.