Best MLB Home Run Props, Thursday September 17

3 selections from 23 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on Thursday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Home Runs	+525	Fanatics	over in 30% of his last ten; Brady Singer has allowed a home run on 4.38% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%
Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs	+450	Fanatics	over in 30% of his last ten; Hernandez barrels the ball at the 78th percentile of qualified regulars
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs	+300	BetOnline	over in 30% of his last ten; Machado barrels the ball at the 71st percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Home Runs

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · first pitch 12:41 PM ET

+525at Fanatics

Mookie Betts has gone over 0.5 home runs in 16% of 114 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Brady Singer.

Brady Singer has allowed a home run on 4.38% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 82nd percentile on.
Brady Singer carries a 5.38 ERA and a .283 average against over 150.2 innings.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at +525.

Full game log and every book on Mookie Betts

Angle 2

Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · first pitch 12:41 PM ET

+450at Fanatics

Teoscar Hernandez has gone over 0.5 home runs in 13% of 115 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Brady Singer.

Hernandez barrels the ball at the 78th percentile of qualified regulars.
Brady Singer has allowed a home run on 4.38% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
Brady Singer carries a 5.38 ERA and a .283 average against over 150.2 innings.

The case against

At +450 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Full game log and every book on Teoscar Hernandez

Angle 3

Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · first pitch 3:10 PM ET

+300at BetOnline

Manny Machado has gone over 0.5 home runs in 18% of 148 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Tanner Gordon.

Machado barrels the ball at the 71st percentile of qualified regulars.
Tanner Gordon has allowed a home run on 4.21% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 87th percentile on.

The case against

Nothing about +300 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Full game log and every book on Manny Machado

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB hits props for Thursday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Thursday, September 17. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 17, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.