Best MLB Home Run Props, Thursday September 24

3 selections from 16 MLB home run props across 12 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Thursday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Home Runs	+625	bet365	over in 20% of his last ten; Bauers barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs	+450	bet365	over in 40% of his last ten; Brady Singer has allowed a home run on 4.37% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%
Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs	+325	theScore Bet	over in 30% of his last ten; Olson barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Home Runs

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies · first pitch 6:06 PM ET

+625at bet365

Jake Bauers has gone over 0.5 home runs in 19% of 140 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Andrew Painter.

Bauers barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars.
Andrew Painter has allowed a home run on 3.97% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 82nd percentile on.

The case against

The price is not the problem here. The form read still has to hold at +625.

Full game log and every book on Jake Bauers

Angle 2

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves · first pitch 7:16 PM ET

+450at bet365

Ronald Acuna Jr. has gone over 0.5 home runs in 17% of 104 games this season and 40% across the last ten. He faces Brady Singer.

Brady Singer has allowed a home run on 4.37% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
Brady Singer carries a 5.67 ERA and a .290 average against over 154.0 innings.

The case against

At +450 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

The last ten (40%) sits a long way from the season rate (17%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Ronald Acuna Jr.

Angle 3

Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves · first pitch 7:16 PM ET

+325at theScore Bet

Matt Olson has gone over 0.5 home runs in 24% of 158 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Brady Singer.

Olson barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars.
Brady Singer has allowed a home run on 4.37% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 96th percentile on.

The case against

Nothing about +325 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Full game log and every book on Matt Olson

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB hits props for Thursday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Thursday, September 24. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 24, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.