Best MLB Home Run Props, Wednesday September 23

3 selections from 29 MLB home run props across 16 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Wednesday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs	+375	theScore Bet	over in 30% of his last ten; Olson barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars
Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 Home Runs	+475	Bally Bet	over in 50% of his last ten; Mason Adams has allowed a home run on 5.94% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Home Runs	+420	Fanatics	over in 30% of his last ten; Carroll barrels the ball at the 89th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves · first pitch 7:16 PM ET

+375at theScore Bet

Matt Olson has gone over 0.5 home runs in 24% of 157 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Andrew Abbott.

Olson barrels the ball at the 94th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 90th percentile on.
Andrew Abbott carries a 4.70 ERA and a .258 average against over 159.0 innings.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at +375.

Andrew Abbott has allowed a home run on 3.42% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

Full game log and every book on Matt Olson

Angle 2

Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 Home Runs

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies · first pitch 8:41 PM ET

+475at Bally Bet

Nolan Arenado has gone over 0.5 home runs in 18% of 147 games this season and 50% across the last ten. He faces Mason Adams.

Mason Adams has allowed a home run on 5.94% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 75th percentile on.

The case against

+475 is not what makes this one risky. The form read is, and it still has to hold.

The last ten (50%) sits a long way from the season rate (18%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Nolan Arenado

Angle 3

Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Home Runs

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies · first pitch 8:41 PM ET

+420at Fanatics

Corbin Carroll has gone over 0.5 home runs in 14% of 151 games this season and 30% across the last ten. He faces Mason Adams.

Carroll barrels the ball at the 89th percentile of qualified regulars.
Mason Adams has allowed a home run on 5.94% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 68th percentile on.

The case against

Nothing about +420 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Full game log and every book on Corbin Carroll

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Best MLB hits props for Wednesday.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Wednesday, September 23. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 23, 10:34 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.