Best MLB Total Bases Props, Monday October 5

3 selections from 6 MLB total bases props across 2 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Monday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Luis Garcia Jr. Under 1.5 Total Bases	-165	BetMGM	under in 90% of his last ten; Freddy Peralta has allowed hard contact on 37.3% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark
Austin Wells Over 0.5 Total Bases	+115	bet365	over in 70% of his last ten; Wells hits the ball hard at the 70th percentile of qualified regulars
Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 Total Bases	+112	BetOnline	under in 50% of his last ten; Bazzana hits the ball hard at only the 35th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Luis Garcia Jr. Under 1.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays · first pitch 8:00 PM ET

-165at BetMGM

Luis Garcia Jr. has gone under 1.5 total bases in 63% of 150 games this season and 90% across the last ten. He faces Freddy Peralta.

Freddy Peralta has allowed hard contact on 37.3% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at -165.

The last ten (90%) sits a long way from the season rate (63%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Luis Garcia Jr.

Angle 2

Austin Wells Over 0.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays · first pitch 8:00 PM ET

+115at bet365

Austin Wells has gone over 0.5 total bases in 44% of 124 games this season and 70% across the last ten. He faces Freddy Peralta.

Wells hits the ball hard at the 70th percentile of qualified regulars.
He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 68th percentile on.

The case against

At +115 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Freddy Peralta has allowed hard contact on 37.3% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.

The last ten (70%) sits a long way from the season rate (44%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Austin Wells

Angle 3

Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 Total Bases

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians · first pitch 5:10 PM ET

+112at BetOnline

Travis Bazzana has gone under 0.5 total bases in 42% of 125 games this season and 50% across the last ten. He faces Anthony Kay.

Bazzana hits the ball hard at only the 35th percentile of qualified regulars.
Anthony Kay has allowed hard contact on 39.1% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
He bats left-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 24th percentile on.

The case against

Nothing about +112 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Full game log and every book on Travis Bazzana

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: White Sox vs Guardians player props.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Monday, October 5. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 5, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.