Best MLB Total Bases Props, Saturday October 3

3 selections from 12 MLB total bases props across 4 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Saturday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Dominic Smith Under 0.5 Total Bases	-115	theScore Bet	under in 80% of his last ten; Smith hits the ball hard at only the 23rd percentile of qualified regulars
Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 Total Bases	-185	BetMGM	under in 80% of his last ten; Albies hits the ball hard at only the 9th percentile of qualified regulars
William Contreras Under 1.5 Total Bases	-175	BetMGM	under in 70% of his last ten; Robbie Ray has allowed hard contact on 37.5% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Dominic Smith Under 0.5 Total Bases

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers · first pitch 4:00 PM ET

-115at theScore Bet

Dominic Smith has gone under 0.5 total bases in 51% of 107 games this season and 80% across the last ten. He faces Tarik Skubal.

Smith hits the ball hard at only the 23rd percentile of qualified regulars.
Tarik Skubal has allowed hard contact on 34.8% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
He bats left-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 8th percentile on.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at -115.

The last ten (80%) sits a long way from the season rate (51%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

Full game log and every book on Dominic Smith

Angle 2

Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 Total Bases

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers · first pitch 4:00 PM ET

-185at BetMGM

Ozzie Albies has gone under 1.5 total bases in 62% of 165 games this season and 80% across the last ten. He faces Tarik Skubal.

Albies hits the ball hard at only the 9th percentile of qualified regulars.
Tarik Skubal has allowed hard contact on 34.8% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
Tarik Skubal carries a 2.72 ERA and a .217 average against over 158.2 innings.

The case against

At -185 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

He bats left-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 61st percentile on.

Full game log and every book on Ozzie Albies

Angle 3

William Contreras Under 1.5 Total Bases

San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers · first pitch 8:30 PM ET

-175at BetMGM

William Contreras has gone under 1.5 total bases in 56% of 147 games this season and 70% across the last ten. He faces Robbie Ray.

Robbie Ray has allowed hard contact on 37.5% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
Robbie Ray carries a 3.59 ERA and a .231 average against over 165.2 innings.

The case against

Nothing about -175 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.

Contreras hits the ball hard at the 77th percentile of qualified regulars.

Full game log and every book on William Contreras

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

Same slate: Braves vs Dodgers player props.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Saturday, October 3. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Oct 3, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.