MLB PLAYER PROPS · Tuesday, September 29
Final. These games have been played; every price is as published.
3 selections from 8 MLB total bases props across 4 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Tuesday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.
Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.
| Pick | Price | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II Under 1.5 Total Bases | -164 | Caesars | under in 60% of his last ten; Jesús Luzardo has allowed hard contact on 33.4% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark |
| Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 Total Bases | -150 | BetMGM | under in 70% of his last ten; Hagen Smith has allowed hard contact on 34.6% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark |
| Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases | +105 | Fanatics | over in 60% of his last ten; Alvarez hits the ball hard at the 97th percentile of qualified regulars |
Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.
Angle 1
Michael Harris II has gone under 1.5 total bases in 57% of 155 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Jesús Luzardo.
The case against
The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at -164.
Angle 2
Taylor Trammell has gone under 0.5 total bases in 56% of 91 games this season and 70% across the last ten. He faces Hagen Smith.
The case against
At -150 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.
Angle 3
Yordan Alvarez has gone over 1.5 total bases in 46% of 158 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Hagen Smith.
The case against
Nothing about +105 helps here. The form read has to be right for this one to pay.
Hagen Smith has allowed hard contact on 34.6% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.
Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.
Same slate: Best MLB home run props for Tuesday.
The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.
Built from the Lab's board for Tuesday, September 29. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 29, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.