Blue Jays vs Orioles player props, and the case against each one.

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, first pitch 6:36 PM ET. Below are our 2 best props in this game, chosen on recent form, season baseline, the matchup and the odds actually available, with the exact price, where to get it, and the reason each might be wrong.

Our graded record is 82-61-5 at +37.1% ROI since Sep 25, as of Oct 19. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.

The arms

Trey Yesavage

Blue Jays

ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 8.74
hard contact allowed: 34.0%
HR per batter faced: 2.59%

Shane Baz

Orioles

ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.91
hard contact allowed: 42.1%
HR per batter faced: 2.02%

ON MONDAY'S CARD

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 RBIs

+195at bet365

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 RBIs in 41% of his 156 games this season, and in 5 of his last 10.

He faces Trey Yesavage.

This one was on the Lab's card for Monday, which took the best five lines across the whole slate. See how the card settled.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 H+R+RBI	+111	DraftKings	over in 40% of his last ten; Okamoto hits the ball hard at the 75th percentile of qualified regulars
Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 Total Bases	+125	BetMGM	under in 60% of his last ten; Trey Yesavage has allowed hard contact on 34.0% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does, and these are separate from the card play above.

Angle 1

Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 H+R+RBI

+111at DraftKings

Kazuma Okamoto has gone over 1.5 H+R+RBI in 50% of 149 games this season and 40% across the last ten. He faces Shane Baz.

Okamoto hits the ball hard at the 75th percentile of qualified regulars.
Shane Baz has allowed hard contact on 42.1% of balls in play, above the 42% league mark.
He bats right-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 91st percentile on.

The case against

The price is the weak part of this one, and the form read has to carry it at +111.

Full game log and every book on Kazuma Okamoto

Angle 2

Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 Total Bases

+125at BetMGM

Dylan Beavers has gone under 0.5 total bases in 46% of 97 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Trey Yesavage.

Trey Yesavage has allowed hard contact on 34.0% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.

The case against

At +125 the price does this pick no favours, so it stands or falls on the form read.

Full game log and every book on Dylan Beavers

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest props in this matchup, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.

Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.

The full card: MLB player props today, every pick with the price it was taken at and the argument against it.

Open the live board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Monday, September 21. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 21, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.